Qualitative uncertainty assessment example

The text on this page is taken from an equivalent page of the IEHIAS-project.

The document 'Guidance on Qualitative Uncertainty Assessment' proposes a three-step procedure for qualitative uncertainty assessment as part of environmental health impact assessments:

1. Identification of uncertainty sources;
2. Qualitative characterisation of uncertainty in terms of:
   • direction and magnitude of uncertainty on the results
   • knowledge about the uncertainty source
3. Reporting of qualitative uncertainty

The purpose of the attached document is to illustrate how this guidance may be implemented in practice, by applying it to a worked example. The emphasis here is on the practical challenges.

Explanation of the method

The attached worked example was undertaken as part of the EU-funded INTARESE and HEIMTSA projects, which were jointly responsible for developing this Toolbox.

The doicument makes a key distinction between performing the uncertainty analysis itself and reporting the results. The former should be undertaken in as much detail as possible, and will concentrate on identifying and assessing all sources uncertainty, however small. The reporting of the uncertainty analysis requires a non-technical reader-friendly summary of the results (rather than the process) and should highlight important areas of high uncertainty.

See also

• Guidance on Qualitative Uncertainty Assessment
• File:Characterising uncertainty iehias.pdf
• File:Example qualitative uncertainty analysis.pdf