Decision analysis and risk management 2017
This page is a lecture.
The page identifier is Op_en7766
|Moderator:Jouni (see all)|
- This page is about a course Decision analysis and risk management organised in 2017. For a course organised in 2015, 2013 and 2011, see Decision analysis and risk management 2015, Decision analysis and risk management 2013 and Decision analysis and risk management, respectively. If you cannot find answers on these pages, you can contact the course organiser Jouni Tuomisto (jouni.tuomisto(at)thl.fi).
Decision analysis and risk management (DARM) is a course taught in the University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.
- 1 Aims of the course
- 2 Course evaluation
- 3 Course details
- 4 Lectures and videos
- 5 Homework exercises
- 6 Evaluation
- 7 Content and schedule
- 8 Help and guidance
- 9 See also
- 10 Keywords
- 11 To do
- 12 See also
- 13 References
- 14 Related files
Aims of the course
The capability to act as an expert facilitator is the key objective in developing the course content. The purpose is to learn to effectively use facilitation to improve decision support.
In the course:
The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between assessments and societal decision making, and the role of decision making in a pragmatic context of improving outcomes. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of an assessment, and know how to build an open assessment based on the requirements of societal decision making.
The focus is on how to convincingly exclude poor decision options rather than trying to find a theoretically optimal solution (e.g. with highest expected utility).
On the last day (16th May 2017) the students will be asked to evaluate the course using the evaluation criteria of properties of good decision support. In addition, they will be asked whether the homework were too heavy for the time available. A summary of the written comments from the 2015 course is available on the course page.
- Name: Decision analysis and risk management
- Abbreviation: DARM
- ECTS-credits: 6
- Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
- Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
- Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
- Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): Yes.
- Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)
- Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen
- Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, (Mikko Pohjola, Marjo Niittynen?)
- Contact Persons email: jouni.tuomisto(at)thl.fi
- Registration for the Course: WebOodi at UEF. If you don't need course credits, you can contact Jouni Tuomisto directly.
Teaching / Learning Methods
- Lectures 8 h
- Checkpoints of exercises 4 h
- Seminars (practical work done presented by students): 6 h
- Course evaluation discussion 1 h
- TOTAL 19 h
- Distance learning: Own reading and homeworks 143 h
Lectures and videos
See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is typically 2 * 45 min, held without a break. The lectures and sessions start 15 min past full hour.
You may follow the 2015 lectures online. They are stored in Google Drive. You do NOT need a password for Darm videos. The video system should work without problems in Windows and Mac and with Firefox, Safari, Chrome, and Internet Explorer. However, you may have problems to see the videos with mobile phones or tablets.
- 18.3.2015 08:25 Introduction part 1 
- 18.3.2015 08:32 Introduction, part 2 
- 23.3.2015 13:15 Impact assessment 
- 24.3.2015 08:15 Management of assessments 
- 25.3.2015 08:15 Homework 3, 5, 6 
- 25.3.2015 13:15 Structure of Opasnet pages 
- 26.3.2015 08:15 Homework 9, 10 
- 11.5.2015 09:15 Seminar, part 1 
- 11.5.2015 12:15 Seminar, part 2 
- 12.5.2015 12:15 Seminar, part 3 
- 12.5.2015 14:15 Seminar, part 4 
- 12.5.2015 14:26 Seminar, course evaluation 
Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, online videos, web-sites, web-documents, and materials in Quizlet and Khan Academy. Due to copyright reasons, some of the materials may be distributed directly to the participants and not via Opasnet. If possible, links to all material is provided on this page.
Acceptable completion of all homeworks 1-9 and seminar presentation in the end of the course. Seminars are mandatory.
- The following homeworks are evaluated on a 0-1 scale, where 0 = not completed and 1 = completed. (maximum 5 points)
- The following homeworks and seminar presentation are evaluated on a 0-2 scale, where 0 = not completed, 1 = satisfactory, 1.5 = good, 2 = excellent. (maximum 12 points)
Satisfactory completion of all homework exercise gives 11 points and score 1 (on a 1-5 scale). By doing better that satisfactorily in exercises 4-9, it is possible to get a higher score as follows:
Content and schedule
To prepare for the course: study these terms: Glossary#Terms in open assessment. This is important, because in open policy practice we use a lot of words that in everyday language may be synonyms or may have several different meanings. In this context, they have a specific meaning and they are NOT replaceable with similar terms.
All material will be openly available online.
- Join the class with a class code:
- Sign up at khanacademy.org (or log in with their existing accounts)
- Visit khanacademy.org/coaches
- There, in the "Add a coach" field, enter the class code 65V4KP
- Do the tests of these sections to test that you know the topic. If you don't, also watch the videos to learn it. We will not teach proability theory during the course, but decision analysis methods are based on it, so you should be able to use it.
|21.03.||Tue 08.00-10.00||SN300 seminar room||Introduction, overview, course tasks, terminology (slides with voice). Homework 1: read/browse Open policy practice and answer some questions. Homework 2 given (only checked based on the update table). Additional reading: Opasnet training, Different (legal) assessment frameworks|
|27.03.||Mon 08.00-10.00||SN201 auditorium||Guidance for Kahn Academy and Quizlet websites. Answers to practical questions. Basic wiki guidance. Impact assessment and decision making, a risk management overview (slides). Open policy practice. Case vaccination: Pneumococcal vaccine. Homework 3 given: Make two new questions about what is unclear to you about the concepts to your user page. Shared information objects in policy support. Homework 4 given: Develop a basic assessment structure about an information need.|
|30.03.||Thu 13.00-16.00||ME201 meeting room||Homework 1 checked. Questions related to homework 2 discussed. Management of assessments and decision making: execution, evaluation, facilitation. (slides). Decision analysis. Basic concepts and information structures in open assessment: assessment, variable, knowledge crystal. Their implementation in Opasnet. Case studies. Helsinki energy decision 2015 (started by the previous Darm course!) with ovariables about buildings, energy, exposure-response functions, health model. Case climate change (Urgenche) (slides). Practical training of Opasnet: looking at the Training assessment.|
|04.04.||Tue 08.00-10.00||SN206 seminar room||Homework 3 checked. No slides. Topic: Climate policies. Homework 5 given. Homework 6 given. Additional reading from the 2013 Darm cource: Assessment scoping - aims, decisions, actions, impacts (slides). Assessment scoping & facilitation - participation, roles, perspectives, knowledge, collaboration. (slides). Structured discussion. No slides, see pages Discussion. Homework 7 given. See also the Darm 2013 topics: Environmental impact assessment directive , Discussion on safety of Pandemrix|
|21.04.||Fri 08.00-09.00||CA105 computer classroom||Homeworks 4 and 5 checked. Homework 8 given about Climate change policies in Helsinki. Homework 9 given. Challenging open policy practice: any arguments against what was thought.|
|28.04.||Fri 14.00-15.00||CA105 computer classroom||Checkpoint of work progress. Homeworks 6 and 7 checked. In addition, practical tricks in editing Opasnet as needed (basics of R code, page editing, version control, categories, permanent link, files in Opasnet, upload, linking, using, ... creating articles)|
|11.5.||Thu 10.00-11.00||SN215||Checkpoint of work progress. Homeworks 8 and 9 checked.|
|15.05.||Mon 12.00-16.00 NOTE A CHANGE!||SN300 seminar room||Group work on Homeworks 7 & 8, hands-on work with instructions MANDATORY|
|16.05.||Tue 12.00-16.00||SN300 seminar room||Group work on Homeworks 7 & 8 continues (2 hours). Seminars: Group work presentations about work done yesterday and today. MANDATORY. For details, see Decision analysis and risk management 2017/Homework#Seminar: Lessons learned|
|29.05.||Mon 9.00-12.00||SN202||Seminars: Group work presentations. Course evaluation and feedback. MANDATORY. For details, see Decision analysis and risk management 2017/Homework#Seminar: Lessons learned|
- 8 h lectures, 4 h checkpoints of work progress, 6 h seminars, 1 h evaluation. Total 19 hours of on-site learning.
- Distant learning: reading materials, videos, lecture notes, homeworks 1-10. Total 143 h.
- Why Russian data is reusable but US data is not although both are open. Russian data for 2011 duma election is (or at least was) available in machine-readable format for the whole country. In contrast, the US results for presidential election 2012 were published as PDF files on each county's website. It would have required several months of work to collect and retype all into a common database.
- Training assessment; see the assessment page and related pages.
- Additional reading: Case Puijo forest management (slides).
- Expert contributions and exposure-response functions, example IEQ factors.
- Structure of pages and objects and R code. No slides, see pages Assessment, Variable, Method, Ovariable, Training assessment, ERF of dioxin. Case example of Bayesian modelling: Human PBPK model for dioxin.
Help and guidance
|General arrangements||Teaching assistant ? , UEF|
|Homework exercises 1 - 9:||Jouni|
Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.
|Help pages||Wiki editing • How to edit wikipages • Quick reference for wiki editing • Drawing graphs • Opasnet policies • Watching pages • Writing formulae • Word to Wiki • Wiki editing Advanced skills|
|Training assessment (examples of different objects)||Training assessment • Training exposure • Training health impact • Training costs • Climate change policies and health in Kuopio • Climate change policies in Kuopio|
|Methods and concepts||Assessment • Variable • Method • Question • Answer • Rationale • Attribute • Decision • Result • Object-oriented programming in Opasnet • Universal object • Study • Formula • OpasnetBaseUtils • Open assessment • PSSP|
|Terms with changed use||Scope • Definition • Result • Tool|
|Basics of Opasnet: What is Opasnet · Welcome to Opasnet · Opasnet policies · Open assessment · What is improved by Opasnet and open assessment? · FAQ|
|How to participate?: Contributing to Opasnet · Discussions in Opasnet · Watching pages · Open assessment method|
|How to edit pages?: Basic editing · More advanced editing · Quick reference for wiki editing · Wikipedia cheatsheet · Templates|
|Help for more advanced participation: Copyright · Archiving pages · Copying from Wikipedia · ImageMap · SQL-queries · Analytica conventions · Developing variables · Extended causal diagram · GIS tool · Risk assessment · M-files · Stakeholders · Heande · Todo · Text from PDFs and pictures · Word2MediaWiki · Glossary terms · Formulae|
- Eracedu: related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish)
- Design for government course in the University of Helsinki
- LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES in 2013 and 2011 (not a complete set)
Content of 2011 course
Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.
Introduction to the course
Introduction to risk management
Introduction to using Opasnet
Introduction to probability theory: Slides
Probabilistic models slides
Risk management: State-of-the-art?
Links to additional DA materials
Links to additional RM materials
- IRGC risk governance framework
- Risk governance deficits - Analysis and illustration
- Risk assessment and risk management in regulatory decision making
- International Risk Governance Council
- The National Academies Press (publisher of e.g. "red book", "orange book", and "silver book")
Background information about other Decision analysis and risk management study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information
NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).
Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.
- Training assessment should be either replaced by a real case or updated.
- Update slides in lectures 1-4
- Go through pages in Template:Opasnet training and check what is needed.
- Fill in the attributes of Pneumococcal vaccine assessment.
- Update rcodes on ERF of dioxin
- Konkreettinen esimerkki päätöksenteon ongelmista. Sen kautta esitellään oppn hyödyt. Mikä? Ipcc? Joku oman elämän esimerkki? Mieluummin ehkä yhteiskunnallimen jotta tulee realistisia rooleja. Otetaan silakka bra esimerkiksi vai pneumokokki ja ilmastoaihe konkreettisen työn kohteeksi.
- Tee eka luennolla harjoitus jossa ryhmänä koetetaan luoda jaettu ymmärrys jostain selkeästä aiheesta. Pieni ja tuttu aihe mutta mikä. Pitää olla yhteisöllinen.
- Hw7 jaa sivut valmiinsi numeroiduille pareille. Numerot jaetaan kurssilla. Jokaiselle ainakin yksi varoable methos ja encyclopedia.
- Assessment evaluation tehtävä oikeista arvioinneista: silakka urgenche kuopio, rauma, joitakin opasnetin ulkopuolelta? Minera vesiopas pahtavaara talvivaara fuk ushima