United States presidential election, 2012

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In August 13, 2012, Francois Choquette and James Johnson published a paper claiming that there are such features in the Republican primary election results that are statistically implausible to occur in an election that has not been manipulated.[1] In Finland, the issue was first raised by the Facebook group Open Democrary Finland on October 31, 2012.

Websites describing the situation

Research plan

The reseach question is this:

Based on statistical analysis of the election data, is there evidence of fraud in the US presidential election, 2012?

  1. Collect large enough a group of volunteers capable of a) data management, b) statistical analysis, c) wiki working, d) dissemination.
  2. Work with the primary election data until the real presidential election data comes out on Tuesday.
  3. Develop data management systems for voting data in Opasnet.
  4. Develop statistical analyses (based on [1]) in Opasnet.
  5. Agree on division of tasks for the presidential election.
  6. When the presidential election data becomes available, manage and analyse the data immediately based on the task devision.
  7. Publish results widely.

Data

Data of Presidential Election 2012, including Republican Party Primary Election.
State Primary election Presidential election Description
Alabama AL Precincts on county files [2]
Alaska AK
Arizona AZ Precincts on county pages [3] Precincts
Arkansas AR
California CA Counties
Colorado CO
Connecticut CT
Delaware DE
Florida FL
Georgia GA
Hawaii HI [4] Data
Idaho ID
Illinois IL
Indiana IN
Iowa IA
Kansas KS
Kentucky KY [5] [6] [7]
Louisiana LA [8] Counties separately [9] Counties
Maine ME
Maryland MD
Massachusetts MA
Michigan MI Counties
Minnesota MN
Mississippi MS
Missouri MO
Montana MT
Nebraska NE
Nevada NV [10]
New Hampshire NH Excel, precincts on county sheets Data
New Jersey NJ
New Mexico NM
New York NY [11]
North Carolina NC
North Dakota ND
Ohio OH Excel for precincts 6th March block level election data created by Mark Salling [12] County level
Oklahoma OK Zip 6th March
Oregon OR
Pennsylvania PA Chester county
Rhode Island RI
South Carolina SC
South Dakota SD
Tennessee TN
Texas TX
Utah UT
Vermont VT
Virginia VA
Washington WA
West Virginia WV [13]

Counties|| Precincts in county-specific files 8th May||

Wisconsin WI
Wyoming WY

From the Coquette and Johnson paper

  1. US Census Bureau: Census 2000 U.S. Gazetteer Files. County locations: [14]
  2. US Census Bureau: Population, Housing Units, Area, and Density 2010. Broken?
  3. Iowa Election Results, January 3, 2012: [15]
  4. New Hampshire Election Results, January 10, 2012: [16]
  5. Arizona Election Results, February 28, 2012: [17] [18]
  6. Ohio Election Results, March 6, 2012: [19]
  7. Oklahoma Election Results, March 6, 2012: [20]
  8. Alabama Election Results, March 13, 2012: [21] [22]
  9. Louisiana Election Results, March 24, 2012: [23] [24]
  10. Wisconsin Election Results, April 3, 2012: [25]
  11. West Virginia Election Results, May 8, 2012: [26]
  12. Kentucky Election Results, May 22, 2012: [27]
  13. [28] [29]


Unsuccessful searches of the claimed fraud

The claim that a major presidential candidate is in the finals because of an election fraud is a very severe one. One could assume that this would make headlines, if evidence is strong. However, nothing has been found from the major U.S. daily newspapers.

Calculations

With this code, you can reproduce parts of the original Choquette and Johnson paper.

+ Show code

--# : Code seems to work, but gives a huge yellow errorbox. --Heta 12:53, 27 August 2013 (EEST)

The data does indeed show like in the Choquette and Johnson paper. Compare to Fig 6 in [1]

See also

References

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 Francois Choquette, James Johnson: Republican Primary Election 2012 Results: Amazing Statistical Anomalies. The Money Party, 2012. [1]

Related files

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