Decision analysis and risk management
- This page is about a course Decision analysis and risk management organised in 2011. For a course organised in 2013, see Decision analysis and risk management 2013.
This page is a lecture.
The page identifier is Op_en3047
|Moderator:Jouni (see all)|
Decision analysis and risk management (DARM) is a course taught in the | University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.
NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).
- 1 Aims of the course
- 2 Course details
- 3 Lectures
- 4 Case study exercise
- 5 Evaluation
- 6 Content and schedule
- 7 Help and guidance
- 8 See also
- 9 Keywords
- 10 References
- 11 Related files
Aims of the course
- To give a good overview of modern assessment methods by;
- utilizing modern web-workspaces for learning, while;
- avoiding overlaps with other courses in the ToxEn MSc program,
In the course:
The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment, and the role of risk management in a broader societal context. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment, and know how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.
- Name: Decision analysis and risk management
- Abbreviation: DARM
- ECTS-credits: 6
- Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
- Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
- Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
- Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): Yes
- Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)
- Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen
- Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio
- Contact Persons email: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi
- Registration for the Course: Wossikka
Teaching / Learning Methods
- Lectures and discussions 60 h
- Calculation exercises 9 h
- Independent assessment study
- Decision analysis study (group work) 50 h
- Risk management study (individual work) 40 h
- Web-Based Learning 30 %
See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.
Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.
Case study exercise
For the case study description and instructions, see the case study exercise page
Note! Self-organised group work requires on-line computers.
Whole course (6 ECTS)
The course grade consists of:
- Completion of classroom exercises (1/3)
- Case study exercise (2/3)
- Active participation in lectures and exercises is taken into account while deciding the overall course grades (e.g. rounding up)
Classroom exercise scoring
- Exercise 1: max. score 5 points
- Exercise 2: no scoring, completion yes/no
- Exercise 3: max. score 5 points
- Exercise 4: max. score 5 points
Total max. score from classroom exercises is 15 points. In addition students earn pluses from extraordinary performance and active participation. Missing exercises 1, 3 or 4 count as 0 points. Missing exercises 2 count as minus (thus counterbalancing pluses).
Case study exercise scoring
- Exercise part 1, DA study plan (group work): max. score 20 points
- Exercise part 2, RM analysis: max. score 10 points
In DA study plan exercise, all group members get the same score. The principles for evaluating the case study exercises are presented on the case study exercise page. With active commenting and discussion in Opasnet both within the group and in between groups and individuals groups and individuals can earn pluses.
The below table presents the tentative guidelines for converting exercise scores into the course grade.
|Course grade||Total score|
The pluses (and minuses) can influence the overall grade in cases where the total exercise scores are close to the limit values. E.g. 35 points from exercises and active participation may be interpreted as grade 4.
Please check the summary table of exercise scores on the corresponding password protected course page in Heande.
For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course:
- Lectures and classroom exercises (3 ECTS)
- Case study exercise part 1: DA study plan (2 ECTS)
- Case study exercise part 2: RM analysis (1 ECTS)
Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale according to sufficient participation and fulfillment of required exercises.
Content and schedule
|28.2.||10-13||Jouni, Mikko, Marko||S22||Introduction to the course|
|3.3.||9-12||Jouni, Mikko, Marko||S31||Introduction to risk management|
|3.3.||13-16||Jouni, Mikko, Marko||S23|| Swine flu story: risks and their management: video, slides whiteboard
|4.3.||9-12||Mikko, Marko||MC9|| Introduction to using Opasnet
|4.3.||13-16||Jouni, Marko||S24||Introduction to probability theory: video, Slides||Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics|
|8.3.||9-12||Jouni||S22|| Introduction to probability theory. video slides
Decision analysis (continued). slides
|9.3.||9-12||Jouni||S22|| Decision analysis (continued). slides; sorry, no video
Swine flu case as a decision problem: what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?
|10.3.||9-12||Marko||S24|| Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation: slides
Swine flu story (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
|11.3.||8-11||Marko||MC9|| Calculation exercise: slides
||Pope et al. 2002|
||Gibbs sampling Bayesian network Hierarchical Bayes model|
|17.3.||9-12||Jouni, Marko||MC4||Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R||Tuomisto et al: PM expert elicitation|
|18.3.||13-16||Jouni||S24|| Overall view of different models video, slides
Why do we do modelling?
First drafts of DA study plans. Brief presentations by students of and discussions about the first DA study plan drafts.
|21.3.||11-14||Jouni, Marko, Mikko||S24||Decision making under uncertainty|
|22.3.||9-12||Mikko, Marko, Jouni||S24||Decision-making under uncertainty (continued).|
|29.3.||9-12||Jouni, Mikko||S4069|| Full drafts of DA study plans.
|30.3.||9-12||Mikko, Jouni||S24|| Risk management: State-of-the-art?
|31.3.||9-12||Mikko, Jouni||S23||Risk management: a social learning perspective|
|1.4.||9-12||Mikko, Jouni|| Risk management: facilitation of (open) risk management
|7.4.||13-16||Jouni, Mikko||S4069|| Risk management: from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action
|8.4.||9-12||Jouni, Mikko||S22|| Summary of decision analysis and risk management: slides, video
|11.4.||9-12||Jouni, Mikko||S24|| Final seminar:
|12.4.||8-11||Jouni, Mikko||S24|| Final seminar
Help and guidance
|General arrangements||User:Jouni, User:Mikko Pohjola|
|Case study exercises: content||User:Jouni|
|Case study exercises: technical||User:Teemu R|
Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.
Links to additional DA materials
Links to additional RM materials
- IRGC risk governance framework
- Risk governance deficits - Analysis and illustration
- Risk assessment and risk management in regulatory decision making
- International Risk Governance Council
- The National Academies Press (publisher of e.g. "red book", "orange book", and "silver book")
General information sources on AH1N1 influenza (Swine flu)
- Swine flu in Finland, page maintained by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (English)
- Swine flu in Finland, page maintained by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (Finnish)
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC),2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP), USA, information page on Swine flue
- Evolution of a pandemic, World Health Organization (WHO), 2009 (Report)
- WHO Pandemic page
- European Medicines Agency (EMA) information page on Swine flu
- EMA report on narcolepsy and possible association with Pandemrix vaccination
Links to information on specific swine flu topics
(current headings intended as first guidance, can be modified as seen reasonable)
Beginning and expansion of the global H1N1 Pandemic
Preparation, decision and promotion of H1N1 vaccination in Finland
Campaigning against H1N1 vaccination in Finland
The development of H1N1 influenza in Finland
Implementation of the vaccination campaign in Finland
Suspected connections between THL and the producer Pandemrix vaccine (GlaxoSmithKline)
Pandemrix vaccine - composition, testing, alternatives etc.
Emergence of narcolepsy cases in Finland and elsewhere
Suspected connections between Pandemrix vaccinations and narcolepsy
Halting of vaccination campaign
THL narcolepsy study, results, and publication
Searching for the guilty
EMA statement on suspected connection between Pandemrix and narcolepsy
Reoccurence of swine flu in Finland and elsewhere
Background information about other Decision analysis and risk management study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information
NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).
Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.