Climate change policies and health in Kuopio
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Scope
Question
What are potential climate policies that reach the greenhouse emission targets in the city of Kuopio for years 2010-2030? What are their effects on health and well-being, and what recommendations can be given based on this? The national greenhouse emission target is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20 % between 1990 and 2020; the city of Kuopio has its own, more ambitious target of 40 % for the same time period.
Boundaries
- Time: Year 2010 - 2030
- Spatial: Activities in Kuopio, Finland. Health and well-being effects due to policies anywhere, e.g. fine particle emissions in Kuopio increase cardiovascular mortality all over Finland.
Scenarios
- Two scenarios for each climate policy (which have not been defined yet): policy is A) implemented, B) not implemented.
Intended users
- The city of Kuopio.
- Other cities in Urgenche.
- Urgenche researchers are users from the methodological point of view.
Participants
- Main participants:
- City of Kuopio: Erkki Pärjälä, Mikko Savastola
- THL: Marjo Niittynen, Jouni Tuomisto, Matti Jantunen.
- Other participants:
- University of Exeter
- Universität Stuttgart
- Other Urgenche research groups
- Other Urgenche cities
Answer
Results
Not yet available.
Conclusions
The target of 40 % GHG reduction seems to be unrealistically ambitious.
Rationale
See other parts of the assessment:
- Climate change policies and health in Kuopio/Decisionmakers
- Climate change policies and health in Kuopio/Probabilities
⇤--#: . ovariable merge must update the slot marginal as well, otherwise it will not work. --Jouni 00:19, 2 May 2012 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: attack)
----#: . Function tidy should reshape data.frame so that Unit and Amount would make two columns instead of being in the long format. --Jouni 11:23, 1 May 2012 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
----#: . We need several pages for an assessment: the main page contains the variable list; /Probabilities contains the P(B) values; /Values contains the assessment-specific and decision-specific value judgements (whatever they are); /Decisionmakers contains the list of decisionmakers, decisions and outcomes. (Could /Values and /Decisionmakers be merged?) --Jouni 11:23, 1 May 2012 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
----#: . For each ovariable, we must include the code "formula" from the variable page. Formula includes both formula and dependencies for the variable. Then, these are used when using make.ovariable. The names should be like formula.Op_en2345 and dependencies.Op_en2345. --Jouni 11:04, 1 May 2012 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
⇤--#: . Slot "objects" is not needed, as variables are managed with their aliases as separate objects (ovariables). --Jouni 11:04, 1 May 2012 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: attack)
----#: . oassessment@decisionmakers$Value is needed but it is not quite clear how it should be used. It is some kind of scenario tool for Outcome, as different decisionmakers may have different values. Should it be an index in a value variable? --Jouni 08:55, 1 May 2012 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
----#: . Päätöksenteon sokea piste: se mitä ihmiset eivät näe mutta eivät myöskään huomaa etteivät näe. Kuitenkin tutkimalla sitä mitä mitä ihmiset eivät näe saadaan selville asioita sokeasta pisteesta. Ymmärtämällä sokeaa pistettä voidaan keksiä asioita jotka järjestelmällisesti jäävät huomaamatta ja asioita, joilla voidaan korjata järjestelmällisiä puutteita. Avoin arviointi on tämmöinen päätöksenteon järjestelmällisten puutteiden korjausmekanismi. --Jouni 08:55, 1 May 2012 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
Decision variables
- Climate policy 1
- Climate policy 2...
Indicators
- Cardiovascular mortality
- Pulmonar mortality
- Well-being...
Other variables
Assessment-specific data
Obs | Name | Identifier | Alias |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Climate change policies in Kuopio | Op_en5466 | decision |
2 | Climate education in Kuopio | Op_en5582 | education |
3 | Market allocation factor | Op_en5535 | MAF |
4 | Cost curves for energy | Op_en5478 | cost.curve |
5 | Energy transformations | Op_en5472 | transformation |
6 | Energy balance in Kuopio | Op_en5469 | energy.balance |
7 | Greenhouse gas emissions in Kuopio | Op_en5483 | GHG.emission |
Formula
----#: . This is a city-specific copy of the original code: Energy balance. --Jouni 06:52, 27 January 2012 (EET) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
Value variables
Analyses
- Decision analysis on each policy: Which option minimises the health risks?
- Value-of-information analysis for each policy about the major variables in the model and the total VOI.
See also
The average usage of firewood in certain types of houses according to the wain heating system in 2000-2001 in Finland (m^3/household/year)[1]
Main heating system | Type of estate | ||||
Detached house | Farm | Free-time place | Total | ||
Stove heating | 7.1 | 10 | 2 | 4.4 | |
Central heating | Wood | 13.7 | 25.6 | .. | 18.4 |
Oil | 1.8 | 8.2 | .. | 2.3 | |
Electricity | 2.5 | 7.8 | .. | 2.8 | |
Straight electric heating | 2.9 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 2.7 | |
District heating | 1.1 | .. | .. | 1.2 | |
All | 3.8 | 14.4 | 1.8 | 4.4 |
References
Related files
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