Climate change policies and health in Kuopio: Difference between revisions
(status parameter added) |
(rcode updated, Stakeholder table removed, new model runs linked) |
||
Line 55: | Line 55: | ||
==Answer== | ==Answer== | ||
*[http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id= | *[http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Special:RTools&id=xUA9zDXiadLXxi60 Results from an assessment model run] 10.6.2015. | ||
*{{#l: | *{{#l:Urgenche building model run for Kuopio.pdf}} | ||
===Conclusions=== | ===Conclusions=== | ||
Line 240: | Line 240: | ||
################ Transport and fate | ################ Transport and fate | ||
objects.latest("Op_en5813", code_name = "initiate") # [[Intake fractions of PM]], iF | |||
iF | |||
emissions <- EvalOutput(emissions) | emissions <- EvalOutput(emissions) | ||
Line 315: | Line 306: | ||
objects.latest('Op_en2261', code_name = 'initiate') # [[Health impact assessment]] dose, RR, totcases. | objects.latest('Op_en2261', code_name = 'initiate') # [[Health impact assessment]] dose, RR, totcases. | ||
objects.latest('Op_en5917', code_name = 'initiate') # [[Disease risk]] disincidence | objects.latest('Op_en5917', code_name = 'initiate') # [[Disease risk]] disincidence | ||
directs <- tidy(opbase.data("Op_en5461", subset = "Direct inputs"), direction = "wide") # [[Climate change policies and health in Kuopio]] | directs <- tidy(opbase.data("Op_en5461", subset = "Direct inputs"), direction = "wide") # [[Climate change policies and health in Kuopio]] | ||
####i------------------------------------------------ | ####i------------------------------------------------ | ||
Line 408: | Line 397: | ||
####!------------------------------------------------ | ####!------------------------------------------------ | ||
districts <- tidy(opbase.data(" | districts <- tidy(opbase.data("Op_en5932.kuopio_city_districts"), widecol = "Location") # [[Building stock in Kuopio]] | ||
####i------------------------------------------------ | ####i------------------------------------------------ | ||
Line 438: | Line 427: | ||
* [[Building stock in Kuopio]] | * [[Building stock in Kuopio]] | ||
* [[ | * [[Intake fractions of PM]] | ||
* [[OpasnetUtils/Drafts]] | * [[OpasnetUtils/Drafts]] | ||
* [[Energy use of buildings]] | * [[Energy use of buildings]] | ||
* [[Kuopio energy production]] | |||
* [[Emission factors for burning processes]] | * [[Emission factors for burning processes]] | ||
* [[Population of Kuopio]] | * [[Population of Kuopio]] | ||
Line 449: | Line 439: | ||
* [[Burden of disease in Finland]] | * [[Burden of disease in Finland]] | ||
* [[Climate change policies and health in Kuopio]] DALY weights etc | * [[Climate change policies and health in Kuopio]] DALY weights etc | ||
===Decisions=== | ===Decisions=== | ||
Line 520: | Line 509: | ||
* Well-being... | * Well-being... | ||
An [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Climate_change_policies_and_health_in_Kuopio&oldid=34738 archived version] was planning to use [[:en:Weighted product model|Weighted product model]] to summarise results, but the idea was dropped. | |||
* Stakeholders: City of Kuopio, Citizens, Budget office of Kuopio | |||
City of Kuopio | |||
Citizens | |||
Budget office of Kuopio | |||
===Assessment-specific data=== | ===Assessment-specific data=== |
Revision as of 12:16, 10 June 2015
Moderator:Jouni (see all) |
|
Upload data
|
Main message: |
---|
Question:
What are the most beneficial ways from public health point of view to reduce GHG emissions in Kuopio? The target of 40 % GHG reduction seems realistic due to reforms in Haapaniemi power plant, assuming that GHG emissions for wood-based fuel is 0. Life-cycle impacts of the wood-based fuel have not yet been estimated. |
{{#display_map:
62.900223, 27.637482, Kuopio
| zoom = 11
}}
Scope
Question
What are potential climate policies that reach the greenhouse emission targets in the city of Kuopio for years 2010-2030? What are their effects on health and well-being, and what recommendations can be given based on this? The national greenhouse emission target is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20 % between 1990 and 2020; the city of Kuopio has its own, more ambitious target of 40 % for the same time period.
Details of scoping |
---|
Boundaries
Scenarios
Intended users
Participants
|
Answer
Conclusions
The target of 40 % GHG reduction seems realistic due to reforms in Haapaniemi power plant, assuming that GHG emissions for wood-based fuel is 0. Life-cycle impacts of the wood-based fuel have not yet been estimated.
Results
- Calculate building stock into the future
- The dynamics is calculated by adding building floor area at time points greater than construction year, and by subtracting when time point is greater than demolition year. This is done by building category, not individually.
- Also the renovation dynamics is built using event years: at an event, a certain amount of floor area is moved from one energy efficiency category to another.
- Full data are stored in the ovariables. Before evaluating, extra columns and rows are removed. The first part of the code is about this.
- Full model run with corrected table 13th March 2015
- Full model run 23 Feb 2015
- Old example model run (running the model takes more than 6 min, so use this ready-made result)
Rationale
Dependencies
- Building stock in Kuopio
- Intake fractions of PM
- OpasnetUtils/Drafts
- Energy use of buildings
- Kuopio energy production
- Emission factors for burning processes
- Population of Kuopio
- Building model
- Health impact assessment
- Disease risk
- ERFs of environmental pollutants
- Burden of disease in Finland
- Climate change policies and health in Kuopio DALY weights etc
Decisions
Obs | Decision maker | Decision | Option | Variable | Cell | Change | Unit | Amount | Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Builders | EfficiencyPolicy | BAU | efficiencyShares | Add | 0 | |||
2 | Builders | EfficiencyPolicy | Active efficiency | efficiencyShares | Efficiency:Passive;Time:2020,2025,2030,2035 | Add | fraction | 0.25 | All input must be given in units that are used in respective ovariables. |
3 | Builders | EfficiencyPolicy | Active efficiency | efficiencyShares | Efficiency:Passive;Time:2040,2045,2050 | Add | fraction | 0.1 | |
4 | Builders | EfficiencyPolicy | Active efficiency | efficiencyShares | Efficiency:Low-energy;Time:2020,2025,2030,2035 | Add | fraction | -0.25 | |
5 | Builders | EfficiencyPolicy | Active efficiency | efficiencyShares | Efficiency:Low-energy;Time:2040,2024,2050 | Add | fraction | -0.1 | |
6 | Kuopion Energia | FuelPolicy | BAU | fuelShares | Add | 0 | |||
7 | Kuopion Energia | FuelPolicy | Biofuel increase | fuelShares | Burner:Large fluidized bed;Fuel:Wood;Time:2015,2020,2025,2030,2035,2040,2045,2050 | Replace | fraction | 0.495 | |
8 | Kuopion Energia | FuelPolicy | Biofuel increase | fuelShares | Burner:Large fluidized bed;Fuel:Peat;Time:2015,2020,2025,2030,2035,2040,2045,2050 | Replace | fraction | 0.495 | |
9 | Kuopion Energia | FuelPolicy | Biofuel increase | fuelShares | Burner:Large fluidized bed;Fuel:Heavy oil;Time:2015,2020,2025,2030,2035,2040,2045,2050 | Replace | fraction | 0.01 | |
10 | Building owner | RenovationPolicy | BAU | renovationRate | Multiply | 1 /a | 1 | ||
11 | Building owner | RenovationPolicy | Active renovation | renovationRate | Multiply | 1 /a | 1.5 | ||
12 | Building owner | RenovationPolicy | Effective renovation | renovationRate | Multiply | 1 /a | 1 | ||
13 | Building owner | RenovationPolicy | Effective renovation | renovationShares | Renovation:Windows | Replace | fraction | 0 | |
14 | Building owner | RenovationPolicy | Effective renovation | renovationShares | Renovation:Technical systems | Replace | fraction | 0 | |
15 | Building owner | RenovationPolicy | Effective renovation | renovationShares | Renovation:Sheath reform | Replace | fraction | 1 | |
16 | Building owner | RenovationPolicy | Effective renovation | renovationShares | Renovation:General | Replace | fraction | 0 | |
17 | Building owner | RenovationPolicy | BAU | renovationShares | Add | fraction | 0 | ||
18 | Building owner | RenovationPolicy | Active renovation | renovationShares | Add | fraction | 0 |
Direct inputs
Obs | Exposure agent | Trait | Cases | DW | L | Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | PM2.5 | Total mortality | 877 | 1 | 11 | Actually "Mortality (all cause)". In 2009 for Pohjois-Savo area 1090 / 100 000 from death cause registry. |
2 | PM2.5 | Work loss days (WLDs) | 323135 | 0.02 | 0.003 | |
3 | PM2.5 | Restricted activity days (RADs) | 31867 | 0.07 | 0.003 | 2.1 million in whole Finland |
4 | PM2.5 | Infant mortality | 3 | 1 | 81 | <1 year old 2009 data for Pohjois-Savo area 244 / 100 000 from death registry. In 2009 in Kuopio 1110 <1 year olds. |
5 | PM2.5 | COPD | 339 | 0.099 | 15 | Actually "Chronic bronchitis (>15 year olds)". Kelasto, includes astma cases too |
6 | PM2.5 | Cardiovascular hospital admissions (number) | 2109 | 0.253 | 0.017 | 21424 in year 2010 in Kuopio hospital. Hospital serves area with 817166 inhabitats. |
7 | PM2.5 | Respiratory hospital admissions | 1150 | 0.043 | 0.02 | In 2007 1429.55 hospital discharges for respiratory disease / 100 000 in whole Finland. http://data.euro.who.int/hfadb/ |
8 | PM2.5 | Asthma medication use (children aged 5-14) | 62 | 0.043 | 15 | Kelasto |
9 | Mold/dampness | Asthma development (>15 year olds) | 252 | 0.043 | 15 | Kelasto-database |
10 | Mold/dampness | Asthma development (5-14 year olds) | 62 | 0.043 | 15 | Kelasto-database |
11 | Noise | Highly annoyed | 0.02 | 1 | ||
12 | Noise | Sleep disturbance | 0.07 | 1 | ||
13 | Noise | Myocardial infarction | 1289 | 0.439 | 0.019663 | 13101 cases in Kuopio university Hospital in year 2010. Hospital serves area with 817166 inhabitats. |
14 | EC | Cardiovascular mortality | 366 | 0.043 | 0.02 | In 2009 for Pohjois-Savo area 455 / 100 000 from death cause registry. |
15 | Cardiopulmonary | 1 | 11 | Guesswork. The same as total mortality | ||
16 | Lung cancer | 1 | 11 | Guesswork. The same as total mortality. |
Specific actions - real and potential
- Energy production
- New power plant unit in Haapaniemi: ability to use significantly more biomass in the production of district heat (2014)
- Enhancement of dispersed energy production with biofuels
- Wide scale transition to renewable energy sources in heating
- Building stock
- Energy efficiency of buildings is increased: new stricter building regulations in Finland (2/2013)
- Education to building owners and managers: semblance of best practicies in heating and other use of energy. Possible reduction in energy use of building stock is about 10%, and mere beneficial health effects are expected.
- Land use and transport
- If possible, PM emissions and noise are calculated based on updated version of Kuopio´s traffic network
- Alternatively, the effect of increased use of biofuels on GHG and CO2 emissions is evaluated.
- Possibilities of rail traffic in Kuopio
- Other...
Indicators
- Cardiovascular mortality
- Pulmonar mortality
- Well-being...
An archived version was planning to use Weighted product model to summarise results, but the idea was dropped.
- Stakeholders: City of Kuopio, Citizens, Budget office of Kuopio
Assessment-specific data
Received
- Building stock data
- Building registry
- Use of electricity by building type or type of activity
- Use of district heat by contract
- Amount of building stock renovated per year
- Amount of new building stock per year during 2010-2012
- Energy consumption in some of city´s own buildings before and after renovation
- Energy production
- Fuels and emissions of Haapaniemi CHP plant
- Traffic
- Regional plan on public transport
To be gathered
- Updated traffic network model?
- Estimates of the amount, area, volume and energy class of new buildings during next years (about 2014-2020)
See also
- Kuopion kaupunginhallitus 8.10.2012: Kuopion ja Siilinjärven joukkoliikennesuunnitelma (Kuopio public transport plan)
- Laskureita hiilijalanjäljen arviointiin ja seurantaan (Carbon footprint calculators): SYNERGIA, JUHILAS, Ilmastodieetti, KASVENER, KUHILAS, Y-HIILARI
- Millaisen tiekarten avulla hiilineutraaliin Suomeen 2050
- Climate policy of Kuopio 2009 - 2020
- DebattiBaari: energiakeskustelu
References
Keywords
Climate Change, Kuopio, Green house gas emissions, Health, Energy
Related files
<mfanonymousfilelist></mfanonymousfilelist>