Climate change policies and health in Kuopio: Difference between revisions
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=== | ===Formula=== | ||
<rcode> | <rcode include="page:OpasnetBaseUtils|name:generic" graphics="Yes" variables=" | ||
name:biofuels|description:Addition of biofuels in transportation (ktoe/a)|default:5| | |||
name:heatsave|description:How much energy is saved from the heating of buildings, compared with 2010? (%)|default:10"> | |||
library(OpasnetBaseUtils) | library(OpasnetBaseUtils) | ||
library(ggplot2) | |||
library(xtable) | library(xtable) | ||
data <- op_baseGetData("opasnet_base", " | cat("Loading functions and data.\n") | ||
print(xtable( | |||
city <- "Kuopio" | |||
energy <- summary.bring("Op_en5473") # Category:Energy balance | |||
tran <- tidy(op_baseGetData("opasnet_base", "Op_en5472")) # Energy transformations | |||
classes <- tidy(op_baseGetData("opasnet_base", "Op_en5476")) # Energy consumption classes | |||
cat("Running model.\n") | |||
energy <- energy[energy$Place == city, ] | |||
energy$Amount <- as.numeric(energy$Amount) | |||
# The policy changes are implemented. | |||
energy.stra <- energy | |||
energy.stra$Amount <- ifelse(energy.stra$Transformation == "Traffic biofuel production" & energy.stra$Fuel == "Petrochemical products", energy.stra$Amount + biofuels, energy.stra$Amount) | |||
energy.stra$Amount <- ifelse(energy.stra$Process == "Heating" & energy.stra$Use == "Output", energy$Amount * (1 - heatsave / 100), energy.stra$Amount) | |||
energy <- rbind(data.frame(Action = "BAU", energy), data.frame(Action = "Policy", energy.stra)) | |||
#### The transformation processes are included. | |||
tran <- reshape(tran, idvar = c("Process", "Transformation", "Use", "Fuel"), timevar = "Observation", direction = "wide") | |||
colnames(tran) <- gsub("Result.", "", colnames(tran)) | |||
tran$Amount <- as.numeric(tran$Amount) | |||
# Calculate conversion factors. | |||
factors <- merge(tran, energy, by = c("Process", "Transformation", "Use", "Fuel")) | |||
mwh2ktoe <- 3600 / (35 * 1000) # 1 MWh = 3600 MWs / (35 MJ / kgoe * 1000 kgoe/toe) | |||
factors$Amount.x <- factors$Amount.y / (factors$Amount.x * mwh2ktoe) | |||
# Add conversion factors to the energy table. | |||
energy <- merge(tran, factors, by = c("Process", "Transformation"), all.x = TRUE) | |||
energy$Amount <- energy$Amount * energy$Amount.x | |||
energy <- energy[!colnames(energy) %in% c("Use.y", "Fuel.y", "Unit.x", "Amount.x", "Unit.y", "Amount.y")] | |||
colnames(energy) <- gsub(".x", "", colnames(energy)) | |||
# Convert energy values to ktoe. | |||
energy$Amount <- ifelse(energy$Unit == "MWh", energy$Amount * mwh2ktoe, energy$Amount) | |||
energy[energy$Unit == "MWh", "Unit"] <- "ktoe" | |||
fuels <- c("Coal and peat", "Crude oil", "Petrochemical products", "Gas", "Nuclear", "Hydro", "Geothermal solar wind", "Renewables and waste", "Electricity", "Heat") | |||
# Categorise energy to standard energy processes and calculate sums for each process. | |||
out <- merge(energy, classes, by.x = "Process", by.y = "Result") | |||
out <- as.data.frame(as.table(tapply(out$Amount, out[c("Class", "Fuel", "Use", "Action")], sum))) | |||
out <- out[!is.na(out$Freq) & out$Fuel %in% fuels, ] # & out$Use == "Input", ] | |||
print(xtable(out), type = 'html') | |||
# NOW how do we tell the energy need in the balance sheet? | |||
ggplot(energy[energy$Fuel == "CO2e", ], aes(x = Action, weight = Amount, fill = Process)) +geom_bar(position = "Stack") | |||
ggplot(energy[energy$Fuel == "PM2.5", ], aes(x = Action, weight = Amount, fill = Process)) +geom_bar(position = "Stack") | |||
ggplot(energy[energy$Fuel == "Ash", ], aes(x = Action, weight = Amount, fill = Process)) +geom_bar(position = "Stack") | |||
ggplot(energy[energy$Fuel == "Heat", ], aes(x = Action, weight = Amount, fill = Process)) +geom_bar(position = "Stack") | |||
</rcode> | </rcode> | ||
{{comment|# |This is a city-specific copy of the original code: [[Energy balance]].|--[[User:Jouni|Jouni]] 06:52, 27 January 2012 (EET)}} | |||
===Value variables=== | ===Value variables=== |
Revision as of 04:52, 27 January 2012
Moderator:Jouni (see all) |
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Scope
Question
What are potential climate policies that reach the greenhouse emission targets in the city of Kuopio for years 2010-2030? What are their effects on health and well-being, and what recommendations can be given based on this? The national greenhouse emission target is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20 % between 1990 and 2020; the city of Kuopio has its own, more ambitious target of 40 % for the same time period.
Boundaries
- Time: Year 2010 - 2030
- Spatial: Activities in Kuopio, Finland. Health and well-being effects due to policies anywhere, e.g. fine particle emissions in Kuopio increase cardiovascular mortality all over Finland.
Scenarios
- Two scenarios for each climate policy (which have not been defined yet): policy is A) implemented, B) not implemented.
Intended users
- The city of Kuopio.
- Other cities in Urgenche.
- Urgenche researchers are users from the methodological point of view.
Participants
- Main participants:
- City of Kuopio: Erkki Pärjälä, Mikko Savastola
- THL: Marjo Niittynen, Jouni Tuomisto, Matti Jantunen.
- Other participants:
- University of Exeter
- Universität Stuttgart
- Other Urgenche research groups
- Other Urgenche cities
Answer
Results
Not yet available.
Conclusions
The target of 40 % GHG reduction seems to be unrealistically ambitious.
Rationale
Decision variables
- Climate policy 1
- Climate policy 2...
Indicators
- Cardiovascular mortality
- Pulmonar mortality
- Well-being...
Other variables
Assessment-specific data
Obs | Variable | Index | Location | Result | Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Population of Kuopio | Age | Total | 80000 | Just a placeholder |
Formula
----#: . This is a city-specific copy of the original code: Energy balance. --Jouni 06:52, 27 January 2012 (EET) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
Value variables
Analyses
- Decision analysis on each policy: Which option minimises the health risks?
- Value-of-information analysis for each policy about the major variables in the model and the total VOI.
See also
The average usage of firewood in certain types of houses according to the wain heating system in 2000-2001 (m^3)[1]
Main heating system | Type of estate | ||||
Detached house | Farm | Free-time place | Total | ||
Stove heating | 7.1 | 10 | 2 | 4.4 | |
Central heating | Wood | 13.7 | 25.6 | .. | 18.4 |
Oil | 1.8 | 8.2 | .. | 2.3 | |
Electricity | 2.5 | 7.8 | .. | 2.8 | |
Straight electric heating | 2.9 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 2.7 | |
District heating | 1.1 | .. | .. | 1.2 | |
All | 3.8 | 14.4 | 1.8 | 4.4 |
This table is not supposed to be here, but atleast it's somewhere now.[2]
References
Related files
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