Prices of fuels in heat production

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Question

What are prices of fuel used in heat production in own heating systems in apartments and in plants in Finland?

Answer

Prices of fuels in heat production without tax.

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Rationale

This page contains prices for electricity, district heating, liquid fuels and consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and domestic fuels in heat production in Finland. all data is based on knowledge of Statistics Finland In the end of data section there will be also data for maintenance and investment costs!!

This code calculates the price of fuels including tax.

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Prices of fuels without tax

A previous version was based on several info sources [1]. However, this resulted in inconsistent prices between fuels. Now the table is simplified and made more robust using IEA estimates VTT-R-03704-14_YDINPAP_(1) page 8, with the cost of accuracy. There should be an expert panel discussing the interdependencies of fuel prices to get the correct order.

Fuel prices(€ /MWh)
ObsFuel198519952005201520252035204520552065Description
1Coal8.59.4113.78201515151515
2Gas9.111.616.242.94040404040
3Natural gas9.111.616.242.94040404040Same as gas.
4Oil14.32532525461687582
5Crude oil14.32532525461687582Same as oil.
6Fuel oil14.32532525461687582Same as oil.
7Heavy oil14.32532525461687582Same as oil.
8Light oil162835555764727986Slightly higher than oil.
9Bio91011212835455776
10Biofuel91011212835455765Same as bio.
11Peat6.689.8172128354550
12Electricity404040404255586065
13Heat30.830.840.453.996363656568
14Cooling30.830.840.453.996363656568Same as heat

All prices are in 2015 euros.

Coal, Gas/Natural Gas, Light oil and Bio/Biofuel and Peat data from Statistics Finland[1]. Bio/Biofuel stands for wood chips.

Oil prices from U.S. Energy Information Administration[2]. All values converted first to 2015 dollars (inflation correction) and then to 2015 euros using the current (21.7.2015) exchange ratio of 1 $ = 0.923 €. Price per barrel then converted to price per MWh presuming that the energy released by burning one barrel is about 5.8 x 106 BTU = 1.7 MWh, U.S. Internal Revenue Service[3].

Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) for Coal, Gas/Natural Gas, Oil, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Heavy oil and Light oil from U.S. Energy Information Administration's "Annual Energy Outlook 2015 with projections to 2040" [4]. CAGR for Bio/Biofuel and Peat estimated to be 2 %, based on the price history.

Price of electricity [2].D↷

District heating data is based on the price for an apartment building (volume 10 000 m3, energy need 450 MWh/a). Data from Statistics Finland [3]. We assume that the price of district cooling is the same (although district cooling has been available only for a few years).

Uncertainties are assumed in the same way for all fuels: a certain percentage up and down from the best estimate, varying by year. The following uncertainties were used: 2025 5 %, 2035 10 %, 2045 15 %, 2055 20 %, 2065 30 %. It should be noted that uncertainties are different for different fuels, but we were unable to estimate fuel-specific uncertainties.

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Taxes for different fuels

Taxes and fees for fuel and energy production[5]
Taxes and fees from Petrol (snt/l) Diesel (snt/l) Light fuel oil (snt/l) Heavy fuel oil (snt/kg) Coal (€/t) Natural gas (€/MWh) Peat (€/MWh)
1.1.1990 21,53 16,82 0,34 0,34 2,69 0,17 0,34
1.1.1991 26,57 17,49 0,35 0,35 2,83 0,18 0,35
1.1.1992 28,26 17,49 0,35 0,35 2,83 0,18 0,35
1.8.1992 31,62 17,49 0,35 0,35 2,83 0,18 0,35
1.1.1993 39,52 19,17 1,41 1,12 5,61 0,35 0,70
1.7.1993 39,52 16,65 1,41 1,12 5,61 0,35 0,70
1.1.1994 40,05 17,29 2,05 1,98 11,30 1,09 0,35
1.1.1995 45,12 27,50 3,02 3,12 19,53 0,94 0,59
1.1.1996 51,85 27,50 3,02 3,12 19,53 0,94 0,59
1.1.1997 51,85 27,50 4,88 3,72 28,42 1,19 0,71
1.4.1997 51,85 27,50 4,88 3,72 28,42 1,19 0,71
1.1.1998 55,22 30,02 5,50 4,34 33,40 1,40 0,82
1.9.1998 55,22 30,02 6,37 5,40 41,37 1,73 1,51
1.1.2003 58,08 31,59 6,71 5,68 43,52 1,82 1,59
1.7.2005 58,08 31,59 6,71 5,68 43,52 1,82 -
1.1.2007 58,08 31,59 6,71 5,68 43,52 1,82 -
1.1.2008 62,02 36,05 8,35 6,42 49,32 2,016 -
1.1.2011 62,02 36,05 15,70 18,51 126,91 8,94 1,90
1.1.2012 64,36 46,60 15,70 18,51 126,91 8,940 1,90
1.1.2013 64,36 46,60 15,99 18,93 131,53 11,38 4,90
1.1.2014 66,61 49,31 15,99 18,93 131,53 11,38 4,90
1.1.2015 66,61 49,31 15,99 18,93 153,24 15,36 3,40
Energy content tax
1.1.2011 50,36 - 7,70 8,79 54,54 3,00 -
1.1.2012 50,36 30,70 7,70 8,79 54,54 3,00 -
1.1.2013 50,36 30,70 6,65 7,59 47,10 4,45 -
1.1.2015 50,36 30,70 6,65 7,59 47,10 6,65 -
Carbondioxide tax
1.1.2011 11,66 - 8,00 9,72 72,37 5,94 -
1.1.2012 14,00 15,90 8,00 9,72 72,37 5,94 -
1.1.2013 14,00 15,90 9,34 11,34 84,43 6,93 -
1.1.2014 16,25 18,61 9,34 11,34 84,43 6,93 -
1.1.2015 16,25 18,61 9,34 11,34 106,14 8,71 -
Energy tax
1.1.2011 - - - - - - 1,90
1.1.2013 - - - - - - 4,90
1.1.2014 - - - - - - 4,90
1.1.2015 - - - - - - 3,40
Maintenance and supply sercurity fees
1.7.1984 0,72 0,39 0,39 0,32 1,48 - -
1.1.1997 0,68 0,35 0,35 0,28 1,18 0,084 -
Oil pollution fees
1.1.1990 0,28 0,031 0,031 0,037 - - -
1.1.2005 0,038 0,042 0,042 0,050 - - -
1.1.2010 0,113 0,126 0,126 0,150 - - -

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Data not used

This section contains data that is important but not relevant to the model's calculations, so they were never used in the calculations. This includes the price of district heating, types of energy consumer by building and prices of electricity and more accurate data of the prices fuels over the past years.

Linear Programming for the Malmquist Productivity Growth Index [4] is a method to make uncertain prediction into the future based on existing trend data. ----#: . Maybe this should be used for fuel price predictions. (type: truth, paradigm: science view) --Jouni (talk) 12:15, 10 November 2015 (UTC)


Unit

€/MWh

Summary

All results are averages of year 2009

Price of district heating by type of consumer (€/MWh)

Type of Consumer
Detached house Semidetached house (rivitalo) Apartment building, small Apartment building Apartment building, large
Year 2009 av. 65.58 61.21 60.28 58.27 55.85

Price of electricity (c/kWh)

Household Electric Heating
Flat Detached House Direct Accumulating
Year 2009 av. 14.81 12.52 10.25 9.51


Prices of domestic fuel

Hard Coal Natural Gas Milled peat Sod Peat Forest Chips Wood pellet
On the Coast Delivered Delivered Delivered Consumer price (incl. VAT) Index
€/t €/MWh €/1000 m3 (0° C) €/MWh €/MWh €/MWh €/MWh c/kWh 2005=100
Year 2009 av. 111.73 15.78 270.65 27.07 10.55 13.44 17.75 5.15 162.87

Price of liquid fuel

Light fuel oil Heavy fuel oil
c/l €/MWh c/kg €/MWh
Year 2009 av. 59.9 59.7 46.6 40.8

See also

Helsinki energy decision 2015
In English
Assessment Main page | Helsinki energy decision options 2015
Helsinki data Building stock in Helsinki | Helsinki energy production | Helsinki energy consumption | Energy use of buildings | Emission factors for burning processes | Prices of fuels in heat production | External cost
Models Building model | Energy balance | Health impact assessment | Economic impacts
Related assessments Climate change policies in Helsinki | Climate change policies and health in Kuopio | Climate change policies in Basel
In Finnish
Yhteenveto Helsingin energiapäätös 2015 | Helsingin energiapäätöksen vaihtoehdot 2015 | Helsingin energiapäätökseen liittyviä arvoja | Helsingin energiapäätös 2015.pptx

References

  1. Tilastokeskus (Statistics Finland). List of tables under the topic "Price of energy". http://pxweb2.stat.fi/database/statfin/ene/ehi/ehi_fi.asp
  2. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Spot prices for crude oil and petroleum products. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PRI_SPT_S1_A.htm
  3. Internal revenue service: Nonconventional Source Fuel Credit, Inflation Adjustment Factor, and Reference Price http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-99-18.pdf
  4. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2015 - With Projections to 2040. 2015. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2015).pdf
  5. Tilastokeskus (Statistics Finland): Energian hinnat 2015, 1. vuosineljännes. (Energy prices 2015, 1. quarter) http://tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehi/2015/01/
  6. Recarbonised Finnish Energy System, Christian Breyer, Michael Child