Decision analysis and risk management 2015

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This page is about a course Decision analysis and risk management organised in 2015. For a course organised in 2013 and 2011, see Decision analysis and risk management 2013 and Decision analysis and risk management, respectively. If you cannot find answers on these pages, you can contact the course organiser Jouni Tuomisto (jouni.tuomisto(at)thl.fi).

Decision analysis and risk management (DARM)[1] is a course taught in the University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

Aims of the course

To give a good understanding and practical skills to perform, participate, and moderate decision analyses, open assessments, and open policy practice using Opasnet.

The capability to act as an expert facilitator is the key objective in developing the course content. The purpose is to learn to effectively use facilitation to improve decision support.

In the course:

The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between assessments and societal decision making, and the role of decision making in a pragmatic context of improving outcomes. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of an assessment, and know how to build an open assessment based on the requirements of societal decision making.

The focus is on how to convincingly exclude poor decision options rather than trying to find a theoretically optimal solution (e.g. with highest expected utility).

Course details

  • Name: Decision analysis and risk management          
  • Abbreviation: DARM
  • ECTS-credits: 6
  • Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
  • Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
  • Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
  • Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): Yes.
  • Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)          
  • Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen
  • Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marjo Niittynen
  • Contact Persons email: jouni.tuomisto(at)thl.fi     
  • Registration for the Course: WebOodi at UEF. If you don't need course credits, you can contact Jouni Tuomisto directly.

Teaching / Learning Methods

  • Lectures 14 h
  • Checkpoints of exercises 3 h
  • Seminars (practical work done presented by students): 6 h
  • Course evaluation discussion 1 h
  • TOTAL 24 h
  • Distance learning: Own reading and homeworks 138 h

Lectures

See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is 2 * 45 min, and they are typically held without a break. The lectures and sessions start 15 min past full hour.

Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copyright reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.

Homework exercises

See Decision analysis and risk management 2015/Homework

Evaluation

Acceptable completion of all homeworks 1-10 and seminar presentation in the end of the course. Seminars are mandatory.

Homeworks 1 - 3 are evaluated on a 0-1 scale, where 0 = not completed and 1 = completed.
Homeworks 4 - 10 and seminar presentation are evaluated on a 0-2 scale, where 0 = not completed, 1 = satisfactory, 1.5 = good, 2 = excellent.


Satisfactory completion of all homework exercise gives 10 points and score 1 (on a 1-5 scale). By doing better that satisfactorily in exercises 3-9, it is possible to get a higher score as follows:

Points Score
<11 1
11-12 2
12.5-14 3
14.5-16 4
>16 5

Content and schedule

To prepare for the course: study these terms: Glossary#Terms in open assessment. This is important, because in open policy practice we use a lot of words that in everyday language may be synonyms or may have several different meanings. In this context, they have a specific meaning and they are NOT replaceable with similar terms.

DARM course schedule 2015
Date Time Classroom Lecturer Topic
18.3. L1-2 8-10 E25 (Technopolis) Jouni Introduction, overview, course tasks, terminology (slides). Homework 1: read/browse Open policy practice and optionally Mikko's thesis [2] and answer some questions. Homework 2 given (only checked based on the update table). Read pages listed in Template:Opasnet training and familiarise yourself to the concepts.
23.3. L3-4 13-15 Sn300 (Snellmania) Jouni Impact assessment and decision making, a risk management overview (slides). Open policy practice. Homework 1 checked. Homework 3: Make two new question about what is unclear to you about the concepts to your user page. Shared information objects in policy support. See Training assessment; see the assessment page and related pages.
24.3. L5-6 8-10 Sn300 Jouni, Mikko? Decision analysis 1. Basic concepts and information structures in open assessment. Their implementation in Opasnet. Homework 4: Develop a basic assessment structure about an information need related to a) Talvivaara mine or b) metal mining in general or c) climate change policies in cities. The detailed question is your choice.
24.3. L7-8 13-15 Ca103 Computer classroom (Canthia) Jouni, Marjo? Case studies. Homework 3 checked. Case Puijo forest management (slides). Case climate change (Urgenche) (slides). Case vaccination: Pneumococcal vaccine. Practical training of Opasnet.
25.3. L9 8-9 MS307 (MediStudia) Jouni Assessment scoping - aims, decisions, actions, impacts (slides). Topic: Climate policies. Homework 5 given. Assessment scoping & facilitation - participation, roles, perspectives, knowledge, collaboration. (slides). Topic: Climate policies. Homework 6 given.
25.3. L10-12 13-16 MS307 Jouni Structure of pages and objects and R code. No slides, see pages ERF of dioxin, Variable, Method, Ovariable, Training assessment. Homework 7 given. Structured discussion. Topic: Environmental impact assessment directive [3]. No slides, see pages Discussion, Discussion on safety of Pandemrix. Homework 8 given.
26.3. L13-14 8-10 Sn300 Jouni Expert contributions: exposure-response functions in estimating health impacts. (slides). Topic: IEQ factors. Homework 9 given. Management of assessments and decision making: execution, evaluation, facilitation. (slides) Homework 10 given.
15.4. L15 13-14 Ca103 Computer classroom Jouni Checkpoint of work progress. In addition, practical tricks in editing Opasnet as needed. links, uploading images and files). basics of R code. page editing and version control in Opasnet. using R code effectively. basic text editing. categories/categorizing. permanent link. files in Opasnet: upload, linking, using, ... creating articles
23.4. L16 12-13 Ca103 Computer classroom Jouni Checkpoint of work progress.
29.4. L17 12-13 Ca103 Computer classroom Jouni Checkpoint of work progress.
11.5. L18-20 9-11, 12-14 Sn207 Jouni Seminars: Group work presentations (6 slots à 30 min = 4 lectures) MANDATORY
12.5. L21-23 12-15 Sn207 Jouni Seminars: Group work presentations (3 slots à 30 min = 2 lectures) MANDATORY
12.5. L24 15-16 Sn207 Jouni Course evaluation and feedback, including round-up of HW3 & HW9
Jouni If there are any unfinished written tasks, there is time to finalise them until 22.5.
14 h lectures, 3 h checkpoints of work progress, 6 h seminars, 1 h evaluation. Total 24 hours of on-site learning.
Distant learning: reading materials, lecture notes, homeworks 1-10. Total 138 h.

Help and guidance

Topic Contact
General arrangements Teaching assistant ? , UEF
Homework exercises 1 - 9: Jouni

Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.

See also

Materials and examples for training in Opasnet and open assessment
Help pages Wiki editingHow to edit wikipagesQuick reference for wiki editingDrawing graphsOpasnet policiesWatching pagesWriting formulaeWord to WikiWiki editing Advanced skills
Training assessment (examples of different objects) Training assessmentTraining exposureTraining health impactTraining costsClimate change policies and health in KuopioClimate change policies in Kuopio
Methods and concepts AssessmentVariableMethodQuestionAnswerRationaleAttributeDecisionResultObject-oriented programming in OpasnetUniversal objectStudyFormulaOpasnetBaseUtilsOpen assessmentPSSP
Terms with changed use ScopeDefinitionResultTool


Advice for using Opasnet
Basics of Opasnet: What is Opasnet · Welcome to Opasnet · Opasnet policies · Open assessment · What is improved by Opasnet and open assessment? · FAQ
How to participate?: Contributing to Opasnet · Discussions in Opasnet · Watching pages · Open assessment method
How to edit pages?: Basic editing · More advanced editing · Quick reference for wiki editing · Wikipedia cheatsheet · Templates
Help for more advanced participation: Copyright · Archiving pages · Copying from Wikipedia · ImageMap · SQL-queries · Analytica conventions · Developing variables · Extended causal diagram · GIS tool · Risk assessment · M-files · Stakeholders · Heande · Todo · Text from PDFs and pictures · Word2MediaWiki · Glossary terms · Formulae

Content of 2011 course

Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.

Introduction to the course

  • introduction to decision analysis: slides

Introduction to risk management

Introduction to using Opasnet

Introduction to probability theory: Slides


Decision analysis. slides

  • Measures of outcome: Utility, DALY, QALY, WTP
  • Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees
  • Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets.
  • Purpose of assessment: Why it is done


Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation: slides

  • Computer modeling
    • Why?
  • Approximation
    • When data is not available
  • Monte Carlo simulation
    • When and why to use?
  • Common uncertainty distributions
    • Normal distribution is not the only option


Calculation exercise: slides

Probabilistic models slides


Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R


Overall view of different models slides

  • Why do we do modelling?
  • Producing result from rationale.
    • Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.
    • Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.
    • Other relations (neural networks).


Decision making under uncertainty

Calculation exercise.

Risk management: State-of-the-art?


Risk management: a social learning perspective

  • lecture: slides
    • participation in assessment and management
    • dimensions of openness
    • assessments as collaborative information production projects
  • discussion:
    • role of public in swine flu case RM?
    • dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM
  • Additional material: heande:Open participation in environmental health assessment


Risk management: facilitation of (open) risk management


Risk management: from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action


Summary of decision analysis and risk management: slides

  • Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM
    • Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM?
  • Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases
    • overview
    • model
    • results and analyses
    • conclusions
    • relations to groups' DA study plans
  • What's new about the swine flu case?
  • Q&A, discussions and group feedback on the course contents and arrangements
  • Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture
    • topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents


Final seminar:

  • Presentations of DA study plans by groups
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
  • Presentations of the RM exercises:
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion

Links to additional DA materials

Links to additional RM materials

Background information about other Decision analysis and risk management study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Keywords

Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.     

To do

  • Update Open policy practice for homework 1.
  • Update homework 1 questions to reflect open policy practice.
  • Training assessment should be either replaced by a real case of updated.
  • Update slides in lectures 1-4
  • Move from Heande to Op_en: Evaluating performance of environmental health assessments.
  • Go through pages in Template:Opasnet training and check what is needed.
  • Translate op_fi:APTK into OPP.
  • Fill in the attributes of Pneumococcal vaccine assessment.
  • Update rcodes on ERF of dioxin
  • HW2: View and upload data to the database using database tools.
  • Make a guide about all HW2 items and provide links.
  • Update page type colours in all wikis. Improve nugget colour.
  • Ovariable development as a bonus tasks if you want a better score. What is the minimum task?
  • Hw2 view and upload data to the database using database tools.
  • Tee ohje kaikista hw2 asioista. Ja linkit tarjottava.
  • Sivutyyppien värit kuntoon joka wikissä. Ja nuhget paremmaksi.
  • Ovariablet bonustehtäväksi jos haluaa paremman arvosanan.
  • Konkreettinen esimerkki päätöksenteon ongelmksta. Sen kautta esitellään oppn hyödyt. Mikä? Ipcc? Joku oman elämän esimerkki? Mieluummin ehkä yhteiskunnallimen jotta tulee realistisia rooleja. Otetaan silakka bra esimerkiksi vai pneumokokki ja ilmastoaihe konkreettisen työn kohteeksi.
  • Tee eka luennolla harjoitus jossa ryhmänä koetetaan luoda jaettu ymmärrys jostain selkeästä aiheesta. Pieni ja tuttu aihe mutta mikä. Pitää olla yhteisöllinen.
  • Hw7 korjaa ettei rcode enää ole vastauksen alla vaan siellä on kutsukoodi ja käyttöohje.
  • Hw7 jaa sivut valmiinsi numeroiduille pareille. Numerot jaetaan kurssilla. Jokaiselle ainakin yksi varoable methos ja encyclopedia.
  • Hw8 keskustelulle uusi aihe joka on ajankohtainen. Helsingin ilmastopolitiikka? Pitää tehdä englanniksi.
  • Siirrä hw taulukot opp sivulle ao kohtiin.
  • Assessment evaluation tehtävä oikeista arvioinneista: silakka urgenche kuopio, rauma, joitakin opasnetin ulkopuolelta? Minera vesiopas pahtavaara talvivaara fuk ushima
  • Ohjeeseen hw3->hw4
  • Hw10 käännä vanhat heande linkit openiin ja korjaa opfillnkki. Päivitä viitelista.
  • Hw1 uudet kysymykset.
  • Mikon kirja abstrakti lukulistalle.

References


Related files