Decision analysis and risk management 2013
This page is a lecture.
The page identifier is Op_en5860
|Moderator:Jouni (see all)|
- This page is about a course Decision analysis and risk management organised in 2013. For a course organised in 2011, see Decision analysis and risk management. On this page, there was previously a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).
LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES (the same link also contains 2011 lectures). ⇤--#: . Due to some minor technical problems live feed from lectures has not been available on DARM2013, except for the first lecture. We hope to have these problems fixed soon. --Mikko Pohjola 09:04, 14 January 2013 (EET) (type: truth; paradigms: science: attack)←--#: . Due to technical problems, live feed from lectures is not available on DARM2013, except for the first lecture --Marjo 11:21, 16 January 2013 (EET) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)
Decision analysis and risk management (DARM) is a course taught in the | University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.
Aims of the course
To give a good understanding and practical skills to perform, participate, and moderate open assessments using Opasnet.
The capability to act as an expert facilitator is the key objective in developing the course content. The purpose is to learn to effectively use facilitation to improve decision support.
In the course:
The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between assessments and societal decision making, and the role of decision making in a pragmatic context of improving outcomes. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of an assessment, and know how to build an open assessment based on the requirements of societal decision making.
The focus is on how to convincingly exclude poor decision options rather than trying to find a theoretically optimal solution (e.g. with highest expected utility).
- Name: Decision analysis and risk management
- Abbreviation: DARM
- ECTS-credits: 6
- Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
- Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
- Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
- Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): in 2011 Yes, in 2013 unclear.
- Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)
- Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen / Jonne Naarala
- Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marjo Niittynen
- Contact Persons email: jouni.tuomisto(at)thl.fi
- Registration for the Course: Wossikka
Teaching / Learning Methods
- Lectures and discussions 14 h
- Method sessions (lectures + practical work) 16 h
- Exercises (guided work on practical tasks) 14 h
- Seminars (practical work done presented by students): 6 h
- Own reading and work 112 h
See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is 2 * 45 min, and they are typically held without a break. The lectures and sessions start 15 min past full hour.
Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.
Acceptable completion of the following tasks (details may change):
- Homework 1: Familiarise yourself to Mikko Pohjola's thesis and answer the questions. Due date: 10 Jan
- Homework 2: Read the introductory pages about Template:Opasnet training and write one question that you think needs clarification. Due date: 11 Jan
- Homework 3: With your pair, draft an assessment about the topic agreed on during the lecture. Due date: 21 Jan. Due date for final version: 4 Feb.
- Homeworks 4 to 9: Due date Monday 11 Feb evening. For instructions etc. see Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework
- Seminar presentation 12.-13.2. Assignment instructions to be given soon.
- Homeworks 1 and 2 are evaluated on a 0-1 scale, where 0 = not completed and 1 = completed.
- Homeworks 3-9 and seminar presentation are evaluated on a 0-2 scale, where 0 = not completed, 1 = satisfactory, 1.5 = good, 2 = excellent.
Satisfactory completion of all homework exercise gives 10 points and score 1 (on a 1-5 scale). By doing better that satisfactorily in exercises 3-9, it is possible to get a higher score as follows:
There is also a possibility for a lighter version of the course (2 study credits) consisting participation to lectures, method sessions and the seminar (as a follower). if interested, ask for more details from Jouni Tuomisto (see contacs above).
Content and schedule
|10.1.||9-11||S22||Mikko||Lecture: Impact assessment and decision making, a risk management overview (slides). Homework 1 checked.|
|10.1.||12-14||S22||Jouni||Lecture: Decision analysis 1. Basic concepts and information structures in open assessment. Their implementation in Opasnet. Homework 2: read pages listed in Template:Opasnet training and familiarise yourself to the concepts. Make one new question about what is unclear to you about the concepts to the homework page.|
|11.1.||9-11||S23||Jouni||Lecture: Decision analysis 2. There are no slides, because we will go through Training assessment; see the assessment page and related pages. Homework 2 checked. Homework 3: Develop a basic assessment structure about an information need related to a) Talvivaara mine or b) metal mining in general or c) climate change policies in cities. The detailed question is your choice.|
|14.1.||9-11||S25||Mikko||Lecture: Case Puijo forest management (slides)|
|16.1.||9-11||S22||Marjo||Lecture: Case climate change (slides)|
|18.1.||9-11||S24||Tommi||Lecture: Case metal mines (slides not available)|
|21.1.||9-11||MC2||Jouni, Mikko, Marjo||Method session: A run-through of the course contents so far, answers to Homework 2 and 3. Short presentation of method sessions and exercises.|
|22.1.||12-14||MC1||Mikko||Method session: Assessment scoping - aims, decisions, actions, impacts (slides). Topic: Climate policies. Homework 4 given.|
|23.1.||9-11||MC4||Marjo||Method session: Assessment scoping & facilitation - participation, roles, perspectives, knowledge, collaboration. (slides). Topic: Climate policies. Homework 5 given.|
|24.1.||9-11||MC4||Jouni||Method session: Structure of pages and objects and R code. No slides, see pages Energy consumption of heating of buildings in Kuopio, Variable, Method, Ovariable, Training assessment. Homework 6 given.|
|24.1.||12-14||MC4||Jouni||Method session: Structured discussion. Topic: Environmental impact assessment directive . No slides, see pages Discussion, Discussion on safety of Pandemrix. Homework 7 given.|
|25.1.||9-11||MC4||Marjo||Method session: Expert contributions: exposure-response functions in estimating health impacts. (slides). Topic: IEQ factors. Homework 8 given.|
|25.1.||12-14||MC4||Mikko||Method session: Management of assessments and decision making: execution, evaluation, facilitation. (slides) Homework 9 given.|
|28.1.||12-14||MC4||Mikko||Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: basic tricks in editing Opasnet) + guided work on exercises|
|29.1.||12-14||MC9||Marjo||Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: links, uploading images and files) + guided work on exercises|
|31.1.||9-11||MC1||Jouni||Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: basics of R code) + guided work on exercises|
|1.2.||9-11||MC2||Mikko||Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: page editing and version control in Opasnet) + guided work on exercises|
|4.2.||9-11||MC9||Jouni||Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: using R code effectively) + guided work on exercises|
|7.2.||9-11||MC9||Marjo||Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: ?) + guided work on exercises|
|11.2.||9-11||MC2||Jouni||Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: ?) + guided work on exercises|
|12.2.||9-11||S25||Jouni (Mikko, Marjo)||Seminar: Group work presentations (3 slots) MANDATORY|
|12.2.||12-14||S25||Jouni (Mikko, Marjo)||Seminar: Group work presentations (3 slots) MANDATORY|
|13.2.||9-11||S32||Jouni, Mikko, Marjo||Seminar: Group work presentations (3 slots) MANDATORY|
|13.2.||12-14||S26||Mikko||Method session: Course evaluation and feedback, including round-up of HW3 & HW9|
- 30 h lectures and method sessions, 14 h exercises, 6 h seminars.
- MC classrooms are computer classrooms.
Tentative Opasnet guidance topics for the beginnings of exercise sessions:
- basic text editing (ex. 1?)
- permanent link
- files in Opasnet: upload, linking, using, ...
- creating articles
- add topics you would like to have taken up
Help and guidance
|Homework exercises 1, 4 & 9:||Mikko|
|Homework exercises 2, 3, 6 & 7:||Jouni|
|Homework exercises 5, & 8:||Marjo|
Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.
|Help pages||Wiki editing • How to edit wikipages • Quick reference for wiki editing • Drawing graphs • Opasnet policies • Watching pages • Writing formulae • Word to Wiki • Wiki editing Advanced skills|
|Training assessment (examples of different objects)||Training assessment • Training exposure • Training health impact • Training costs • Climate change policies and health in Kuopio • Climate change policies in Kuopio|
|Methods and concepts||Assessment • Variable • Method • Question • Answer • Rationale • Attribute • Decision • Result • Object-oriented programming in Opasnet • Universal object • Study • Formula • OpasnetBaseUtils • Open assessment • PSSP|
|Terms with changed use||Scope • Definition • Result • Tool|
Content of 2011 course
Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.
Introduction to the course
Introduction to risk management
Introduction to using Opasnet
Introduction to probability theory: Slides
Probabilistic models slides
Risk management: State-of-the-art?
Links to additional DA materials
Links to additional RM materials
- IRGC risk governance framework
- Risk governance deficits - Analysis and illustration
- Risk assessment and risk management in regulatory decision making
- International Risk Governance Council
- The National Academies Press (publisher of e.g. "red book", "orange book", and "silver book")
Background information about other Decision analysis and risk management study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information
NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).
Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.