Salmon intake in the population of the Western Europe

Benefit-risk assessment on farmed salmon: To the assessment page | To the Analytica model
Decision variables: Variable:Recommendation for consumption of farmed salmon | Variable:Pollutant concentration limits for fish feed
Indicators: Variable:Pollutant health risk due to the consumption of salmon | Variable:Net health effects due to the consumption of salmon
Other variables: Variable:Persistent pollutant concentrations in fish feed | Variable:Persistent pollutant concentrations in salmon | Variable:Salmon intake in the population of the Western Europe | Variable:Exposure to persistent pollutants due to salmon in the population of the Western Europe | Variable:Dose-response function of persistent pollutants | Variable:Omega-3 content in salmon | Variable:Omega-3 intake due to salmon in the population of the Western Europe | Variable:Dose-response function of cardiovascular effects of omega-3 fatty acids | Variable:Total mortality in the Western Europe | Variable:Cardiovascular mortality in the Western Europe | Variable:Cardiovascular effects of omega-3 in salmon in the Western Europe

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Scope

Salmon intake in the population of the Western Europe describes intake of farmed and wild salmon after the two decisions (regulate fish feed pollutants / recommend restrictions for farmed salmon use) has been made. Although market salmon exists in the index, it is not used in this version of the model. Wild salmon use after restricting farmed salmon use has a triangular probability distribution. Min assumes the same relative decrease as in farmed salmon; mode assumes no change; max assumes that wild salmon intake increases so much that it totally compensates the decrease in farmed salmon use. Estimates are based on author judgement. The wild salmon production capacity is probably much smaller than the max used for the variable. This overestimation causes bias towards smaller costs due to salmon use restrictions.

Definition

Data

Data comes from EPIC study looking at fish consumption in 10 European countries by gender. We take the minimum, the unweighed average and the maximum of these values in the distribution to represent uncertainty in population average fatty fish intake (<anacode>Triangular( 7.5, 15.3, 31 )</anacode>). All fatty fish is assumed to be salmon.

Causality

Upstream variables

• Variable:Recommendation for consumption of farmed salmon
• Variable:Pollutant concentration limits for fish feed

Unit

g/d

Formula

<anacode>Table(Salmon,Reg_poll,Recommendation)( F,(A*F), (F+Pollutant_scare),((A*F)+Pollutant_scare), W,Triangular((A*W),W,(W+((1-A)*F))), W,Triangular((A*W),W,(W+((1-A)*F))), 0,0, 0,0 )</anacode>

Result

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Statistics or fractile	Business as usual	Recommend restrictions	Stricter rules for feed	Both
Mean	16.14	11.79	16.31	11.96
SD	4.53	3.62	4.55	3.64
0.01	7.84	7.48	7.87	7.19
0.025	8.55	7.56	8.68	7.5
0.05	9.38	7.69	9.49	7.78
0.25	12.74	8.93	12.91	9.11
0.5 (Median)	15.66	10.85	15.83	11.04
0.75	19.25	13.77	19.44	13.96
0.95	24.22	19.09	24.41	19.29
0.975	25.57	20.93	25.75	21.11
0.99	27.01	22.69	27.2	22.87