Salmon intake in the population of the Western Europe

Scope

Salmon intake in the population of the Western Europe describes intake of farmed and wild salmon after the two decisions (regulate fish feed pollutants / recommend restrictions for farmed salmon use) has been made. Although market salmon exists in the index, it is not used in this version of the model. Wild salmon use after restricting farmed salmon use has a triangular probability distribution. Min assumes the same relative decrease as in farmed salmon; mode assumes no change; max assumes that wild salmon intake increases so much that it totally compensates the decrease in farmed salmon use. Estimates are based on author judgement. The wild salmon production capacity is probably much smaller than the max used for the variable. This overestimation causes bias towards smaller costs due to salmon use restrictions.

Definition

Data

Data comes from EPIC study looking at fish consumption in 10 European countries by gender. We take the minimum, the unweighed average and the maximum of these values in the distribution to represent uncertainty in population average fatty fish intake:

<anacode>Triangular( 7.5, 15.3, 31 )</anacode>

All fatty fish is assumed to be salmon. [1]

Causality

Upstream variables

g/d

Formula

See the Analytica model file for details.

<anacode>Table(Salmon,Reg_poll,Recommendation)( F,(A*F), (F+Pollutant_scare),((A*F)+Pollutant_scare), W,Triangular((A*W),W,(W+((1-A)*F))), W,Triangular((A*W),W,(W+((1-A)*F))), 0,0, 0,0 )</anacode>

Result

Result distribution of farmed salmon intake.

 Statistics or fractile Business as usual Recommend restrictions Stricter rules for feed Both Mean 16.14 11.79 16.31 11.96 SD 4.53 3.62 4.55 3.64 0.01 7.84 7.48 7.87 7.19 0.025 8.55 7.56 8.68 7.5 0.05 9.38 7.69 9.49 7.78 0.25 12.74 8.93 12.91 9.11 0.5 (Median) 15.66 10.85 15.83 11.04 0.75 19.25 13.77 19.44 13.96 0.95 24.22 19.09 24.41 19.29 0.975 25.57 20.93 25.75 21.11 0.99 27.01 22.69 27.2 22.87