Benefit-risk assessment on farmed salmon: Difference between revisions

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(based on the published model)
 
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[[image:Farmed salmon assessment.PNG]]
[[image:Farmed salmon assessment.PNG]]


===Decision variables===
{{Farmed salmon assessment}}
 
===Indicators===
 
===Other variables===


===Analyses===
===Analyses===

Revision as of 14:04, 27 December 2007

Scope

Purpose

The purpose of the assessment is to evaluate the recommendation given by Hites et al [1] that people should not eat farmed salmon too often because of the pollutant concentrations.

Boundaries

  • Pollutants: Toxaphene, dieldrin, PCB
  • Nutrients: Omega-3 fatty acids
  • Health impacts:
    • Total cancer caused by pollutants
    • Cardiovascular deaths and the impact of omega-3 fatty acids
  • Population: the population of Western Europe (European Economic Area as of beginning of 2004)
  • Current situation (year 2004)

Scenarios

  • Recommendation for not to eat farmed salmon too often (yes/no)
  • Setting up new stricter regulations about pollutants in fish feed (yes/no)

Intended users

  • The primary users are public health authorities and decision-makers involved in giving food recommendations.
  • The secondary user group is the general public. Quantitative estimates are offered to increase understanding of the magnitudes of the related issues.

Participants

The assessment is restricted to a group of environmental health researchers. See participant list in Farmed salmon (project).

Definition

Benefit-risk assessment on farmed salmon: To the assessment page | To the Analytica model
Decision variables:

Variable:Recommendation for consumption of farmed salmon | Variable:Pollutant concentration limits for fish feed

Indicators:

Variable:Pollutant health risk due to the consumption of salmon | Variable:Net health effects due to the consumption of salmon

Other variables:

Variable:Persistent pollutant concentrations in fish feed | Variable:Persistent pollutant concentrations in salmon | Variable:Salmon intake in the population of the Western Europe | Variable:Exposure to persistent pollutants due to salmon in the population of the Western Europe | Variable:Dose-response function of persistent pollutants | Variable:Omega-3 content in salmon | Variable:Omega-3 intake due to salmon in the population of the Western Europe | Variable:Dose-response function of cardiovascular effects of omega-3 fatty acids | Variable:Total mortality in the Western Europe | Variable:Cardiovascular mortality in the Western Europe | Variable:Cardiovascular effects of omega-3 in salmon in the Western Europe

Analyses

  • Value of information analyses
    • Outcome: Net health effect; Decision: Recommend restricted farmed salmon consumption?; Variables tested: all
    • Outcome: Net health effect; Decision: Lower limits for pollutants in fish feed?; Variables tested: all
  • Importance analyses
    • Outcome: Mortality by recommendation; Variables tested: all
    • Outcome: Mortality by feed regulation; Variables tested: all

Result

Results

The main results and conclusions have been published by Tuomisto et al.[2]


Statistics or fractile Business as usual Recommend restrictions Stricker rules for feed Both
Mean 31062 22929 31428 23296
SD 22650 17105 22842 17317
0.01 576 404 653 460
0.025 1782 1286 1847 1356
0.05 3632 2697 3766 2803
0.25 14547 10590 14780 10793
0.5 (Median) 25187 18504 25479 18829
0.75 43064 31526 43628 32091
0.95 76141 56697 77010 57393
0.975 88267 66397 89040 67249
0.99 101832 79328 102202 80143


Conclusions

  • Pollutant risk is much smaller than the net health benefit of farmed salmon
  • Scientific uncertainties related to recommendations are unimportant
  • Some scientific and political uncertainties related to feed limits are important

References

  1. ↑ Hites et al. Science 2004.
  2. ↑ Tuomisto JT, Tuomisto J, Tainio M, Niittynen M, Verkasalo P, Vartiainen T, Kiviranta H, Pekkanen J. Risk-benefit analysis of eating farmed salmon. Science. 2004 Jul 23;305(5683):476-7 Read the article
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