Common Case Study

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Mega case study is a European-wide (EU-30) assessment with the focus on climate change but several different aspects looked at the same time.

TODO: {{#todo:MCS tasks for THL:

• Deadline for this part of MCS analysis: early September.
• Deadline for the MCS report: end of September

|Jouni, Virpi Kollanus, Marko, Ulla H-S|Intarese, Heimtsa}}

Scope

Purpose

What are the health effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in Europe (EU-30)? Both effects of climate policies and effects of climate change are included.

Boundaries

• Temporal: Current situation to 2050. Special emphasis on years 2020, 2030, 2050.
• Spatial: EU-30
• Sectors: Energy supply and consumption with special emphasis on building heating/cooling, electricity use, and road transport; agriculture; water supply.
• Endpoints: Application costs, health impacts, health care costs, greenhouse gas emissions.

Scenarios

European climate scenarios

• Business-as-usual scenario: NEEDS reference scenario + GAINS reference scenario
• Policy scenario: NEEDS 450 ppm climate protection scenario + GAINS policy scenario

Global IPCC scenarios are treated as a random variable. It is a 50%/50% chance for each scenario to be used in an iteration of the sample. Therefore, they do not show in the result as scenarios. They are scenarios because we do not claim that the best estimate for the probabilities would be exactly 50%/50%. We just use that probability because we want to assess situations in both kinds of worlds.

• Business-as-usual (BAU): IPCC A1B scenario as the reference scenario
• Policy scenario: IPCC B1 scenario most likely to lead to only +2 °C change in temperature

Intended users

• Policy-makers in the Copenhagen / Mexico City COP-16 process.
• National policy-makers.

Participants

• Intarese
• Heimtsa
• This is an open assessment. Anyone is welcome to participate.

Definition

Energy, buildings, and transport sub-assessment

File:Mega case study.ana in Analytica.

Decision variables: Road transport policies in Europe | Building policies in Europe | Energy efficiency policies on domestic appliances in Europe | Energy supply policies in Europe | Other variables / activities: Road transport in Europe | Building stock in Europe | Stock of domestic appliances in Europe | Energy supply in Europe | Other variables / pollutants: Air pollutant emissions in Europe | Air pollutant exposures in Europe | ERF of PM2.5 on mortality in general population | ERF for heat exposure and mortality | ERF for heat exposure and morbidity Other variables / population: Cardiovascular diseases in Europe | Cardiovascular mortality in the Western Europe *| Respiratory diseases in Europe *| Cancer in Europe *| Total mortality in the Western Europe *| WHO mortality data | Morbidity data for Europe | Duration of morbidity | Exposure scaling factors in Europe | Population of Europe | DALY weights Indicators: Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe | Burden of disease in Europe | Costs of climate change policies in Europe | * These variables need complete re-editing.

Agriculture sub-assessment

Agriculture mega case study.ANA model file for agriculture module (Analytica file).

Indicators: Neurodevelopmental effect of nitrate | Cancer due to pesticides in Europe | Gastric infections in Europe

Decisions: Pesticide regulation in Europe | Irrigation practices of agricultural land in Europe | Biofuel production in Europe | Meat consumption in Europe

Other variables: Population of Europe | Number of farm animals in Europe | Fertilizer use in Europe | Pesticide use in Europe | Pesticide exposure in Europe | ERF of pesticides on cancer | Livestock wastes in Europe | Nitrate leaching and run-off in Europe | Livestock waste leaching and run-off in Europe |

Analyses

• Cost-benefit analysis
• Value of information analysis

See also

• Risk assessment of nitrate in drinking water
• The main page of the Mega Case Study in Heande.
• Act on Copenhagen
• Impact of global temperature rise
• EU funded projects from Cordis database: Predicting the socio-economic impact of climate change
• Discussion with Rainer, Jouni, and Alex 6.7.2010