Energy supply in Europe

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Scope

What is the energy supply in Europe (EU-30) for electricity, heat, and transport fuel production categorised by fuel and facility type during the period 2010-2050?

  1. Primary supply of energy.
  2. Primary use (e.g. heat and power plants).
  3. Final use.

Definition

Data

Descriptions from File:Energy supply in Europe.xls:

OECD Europe consists of EU-27, MINUS Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Romania and Slovenia, PLUS Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey.

The gray area of columns A…L is copied directly from IEA 2009 (see reference below table), and can be replaced with 2007 baseline data from any other country from the same document. In the particular case of Finland, apparet errors in the dividion of fuel use for CHP and Heat Plants - resulting in too low efficiency for CHP and 110% (!) thermal efficiency for Heat Plants was corrected in a way that did not change the overall balances. The unit is the same for all energies, tons of oil equivalent, used by IEA and others, and allowing direct replacement of, e.g. 1 toe of gas by 1 toe of oil, etc.

The blue areas contain the transfer factors from source data, B…L, 2007, to target data, AA…AK, 2030 (or any other selected year). Value of 1.0 means, no change, 1.25 means 25% increase, 0.7 means 30% decrease, etc. Initially all values are 1.00 and, consequently, the target balance sheet, AA...AK is identical to source balance sheet, and in balance, which means that row 21 is identical to row 22, and row 35 identical to row 36. All changes from the source (2007) to the target year (2030) are enterd by changing the transfer factors in the blue areas from 1.00 to other values for the use of fuels and energy in the Final Consumption (bottom), Primay Energy Use for Energy Conversion (lower center) or Supply for Consumption (upper center) sections. No values should be entered in the orange cells. The values in the green cells should not be changed without understanding.

No values should be entered in this section, because columns AA...AK are computed from the data in columns B..Y. Once the (preliminary) changes in energy use, conversion and supply have been made in the blue cells, their impacts need to be balanced, i.e. the values in AA32…AK32 must - approxiomately - equal those in AA33…AK33, and AA18..AK18 must equal AA19...AK19, i.e. supplies and demans must be balanced. This is done by adjusting the values in the blue cells, first to match supply and demand for final consumption (rows 32 and 33) and then supply and demand for energy conversion (rows 18 and 19). Trial and error is the method of choice here.

A word of warning: The balance sheet works at an annual level. You can balance the annual sheet in ways which are impossible e.g. at daily or hourly levels. E.g. solar and wind power must be backed up by adequate alternative power supplies for low wind periods. The needs and means for the alternative supply vary significantly between the countries.

The thermal conversion efficiencies (B4…K7) apply for Finland in 2007, and can be used as starting points for other countries. Some adjustmenst, however, are necessary to balance sheet AA…AK for any new country. The thermal conversion efficiencies for new installations (O4 ... X7) are more generic, and should only be changed with sufficient knowledge.

Once a (approximate) balance has been reached, you can see how the changes (savings) that you have introduced in the final consumption, changes between the alternative energy sources (e.g. gas, electricity and biomass for residential heating), and changes between the alternative energy supplies (e.g. coal, oil and biomass for CHP generation) affect the total energy supply and CO2 emissions from the use of each fuel (AN18...AU18), total CO2 (AX18) and CO2 from fossil fuel (AY18) use. This can then be compared to the target value for fossil CO2 (AY17), and the difference between the true and the target value. If the target is nor reached by the policy, you need to modify/strengthen your energy use, conversion and supply policies, and rebalance table AA...AK.

The values below are CO2 emissions from the combustion of each fuel of interest

CO2 emissions from the combustion of each fuel of interest (MtCO2/Mtoe).
Supply and consumption Coal & peat Crude oil Petrochem products Gas Nuclear Hydro Geothermal, solar, wind Combust, renew, waste Electricity Heat
Electricity plants 3.86 3.13 3.13 2.27 4.79 4.01
CHP Plants 4.79 4.72 4.72
Heat plants 3.90


Thermal conversion efficiency, stock of 2007.
Supply and consumption Coal & peat Crude oil Petrochem products Gas Nuclear Hydro Geothermal, solar, wind Combust, renew, waste Electricity Heat
Electricity plants 0.37 0.40 0.46 0.33 1.00 1.00 0.32
CHP plants, electricity 0.33 0.38 0.44 0.30 1.00 1.00 0.28
CHP plants, heat 0.24 0.39 0.39 0.40 1.00 1.00 0.26 1.00 1.00
Heat plants 0.86 0.95 0.95 1.00 0.85 1.00 1.00
Thermal conversion efficiency for new installations after 2007
Supply and consumption Coal & peat Crude oil Petrochem products Gas Nuclear Hydro Geothermal, solar, wind Combust, renew, waste Electricity Heat
Electricity plants 0.45 0.50 0.53 0.37 1.00 1.00 0.40
CHP plants, electricity 0.35 0.40 0.50 0.32 1.00 1.00 0.33
CHP plants, heat 0.55 0.50 0.40 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.55 1.00 1.00
Heat plants 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Dependencies

Unit

PJ/a

Formula

Alternative 1 used.

Alternative 1

Excel model: Energy supply in Europe.xls

The approach is based on OECD energy balance sheets. The idea is that these balance sheets are a reliable starting point for describing energy supply, production, and use. When proportional changes are made to one of them, others must be adjusted so that they match again. This is basically done with a manual process in the Excel sheet. When a balance has been achieved, the CO2 and PM2.5 emissions can be calculated based on different activities.

  • Problem: The model works on annual basis and does not account for seasonal or daily variations. Solution: Ignore the problem and use it anyway (with caution, of course).
  • Problem: There are technical formatting problems that make it difficult to copy-paste data to and from the Excel sheet. Solution: Talk with Matti and reformat the sheet. Specifically on sheet Mtoe:
    • Merge rows 10-11: only one row for the title.
    • Add text to Rows 19, 32 (all columns), otherwise they are ignored in the Table to Wiki reformatting.
    • Colour codes should be clearly explained somewhere.


Interpretation of equation on cell AI22: 

=-(IF(O22>1;(B4*B22+O4*(AA22-B22));(B4*AA22))
	+IF(Q22>1;(D4*D23+Q4*(AC22-D23));(D4*AC22))
	+IF(R22>1;(E4*E22+R4*(AD22-E22));(E4*AD22))
	+IF(S22>1;(F4*F22+S4*(AE22-F22));(F4*AE22))
	+G4*AF22
	+H4*AG22
	+IF(V22>1;(I4*I22+V4*(AH22-I22));(I4*AH22)))

The equation calculates the total electricity production from different fuels or sources. Multiply the original energy amount (e.g. B22) by the conversion factor for coal to electricity in an old plant (B4). If there is an increase, use the conversion factor of a new plant (O4) for the increase. AA22 is the changed energy amount of coal used in electricity plants. The condition O22>1 is equal to AA22>B22 because AA22=O22*B22. For columns G and H (hydro and geothermal+solar+wind) the nominal conversion factor 1 in cells G4 and H4 are used; that does not change in new and old plants.

Alternative 2

Use Times dynamic model (run by IER/University of Stuttgart) to find plausible energy supply and consumption scenarios.

  • Problem: The model is heavy to run and not openly available. Solution: Don't use the model.

Result

{{#opasnet_base_link:Op_en4078}}


Energy balance sheet, OECD Europe 2007 (IEA,2009). Million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per year.
Supply and consumption Coal & peat Crude oil Petrochem products Gas Nuclear Hydro Geothermal, solar, wind Combust, renew, waste Electricity Heat Total
Production 188.71 236.95 236.63 241.26 42.79 20.92 99.58 0.45 1067.29
Imports 174.45 657.10 299.21 347.42 4.21 29.03 1511.43
Exports -32.74 -173.64 -287.97 -140.82 -1.31 -28.69 -0.01 -665.18
Intl marine bunkers -54.73 **)
Intl aviation bunkers -45.79 **)
Stock changes 6.78 0.01 2.76 4.50 -0.08 13.97
TPES 337.20 720.42 14.0 447.73 241.26 42.79 20.92 102.41 0.34 0.44 1927.50
Transfers 17.67 -15.39 2.29
Statistical differences -2.99 1.67 1.79 1.16 -0.08 0.11 0.44 2.12
Electricity plants -177.01 -15.48 -83.86 -237.92 -42.79 -16.16 -17.85 251.41 -0.45 -340.13
CHP Plants -63.56 *) -9.56 -58.68 -3.34 -0.97 -16.87 56.21 47.52 -49.25
Heat plants -5.19 -0.82 -5.38 -0.13 -3.72 -0.25 13.40 -2.09
Gas works -0.46 -0.18 0.46 -0.18
Petroleum refineries -748.50 741.71 -6.79
Coal transformation -24.44 0.02 -1.96 -0.09 -26.47
Liquefication plants
Other transformation 0.01 11.18 -11.41 -0.17 -0.11 -0.50
Own use -6.85 -39.78 -17.74 -0.08 -24.33 -2.33 -91.60
Distribution losses -1.03 -0.02 -2.69 -0.13 -0.02 -19.70 -3.77 -27.35
TFC 55.67 2.47 662.91 280.74 3.53 63.69 263.30 55.26 1387.51
Industry sector 40.93 0.01 45.03 92.26 0.16 19.84 107.49 17.23 322.95
Iron and steel 16.86 1.21 9.83 0.04 12.93 0.34 41.20
Chemical and petrochem 2.28 0.01 8.85 20.61 0.49 17.81 3.46 53.52
Non-ferrous metals 0.65 1.08 3.31 0.03 9.56 0.23 14.87
Non-metallic minerals 6.68 11.03 16.26 1.51 7.76 0.12 43.34
Transport equipment 0.13 0.66 3.07 4.20 0.21 8.27
Machinery 0.23 2.39 7.99 0.03 9.55 0.36 20.56
Mining and quarrying 0.16 0.81 0.55 1.43 0.28 3.24
Food and tobacco 2.26 3.90 12.46 0.90 10.10 0.62 30.24
Paper, pulp & printing 1.27 2.04 9.00 11.30 12.98 1.63 38.23
Wood and wood products 0.14 0.31 0.40 3.15 2.37 0.33 6.71
Construction 2.16 3.39 0.81 0.12 1.57 0.06 8.11
Textile and leather 0.33 0.87 3.15 0.07 3.64 0.10 8.15
Non-specified 7.77 8.49 4.81 0.16 2.20 13.59 9.50 46.50
Transport sector 432.49 1.89 7.85 6.54 448.78
Domestic aviation 10.96 10.96
International aviation 45.79 45.79
Road transport 311.23 0.63 7.85 319.71
Rail transport 0.01 2.95 5.18 8.13
Pipeline transport 1.14 0.11 1.25
Domestic navigation 6.68 6.68
International navigation 54.73 54.73
Non-specified 0.15 0.12 1.26 1.53
Other sectors 13.45 83.69 173.68 3.37 36.01 149.26 38.03 497.49
Residential 11.03 45.84 118.42 2.74 32.29 73.97 13.00 297.30
Community & public services 1.25 17.16 41.33 0.26 2.15 69.84 5.32 137.31
Agriculture & forestry 1.08 18.04 4.53 0.07 1.55 4.96 0.34 30.56
Fishing 1.68 0.04 0.05 1.77
Non-specified 0.09 0.97 9.39 0.26 0.02 0.45 19.38 30.56
Non-energy use 1.28 2.46 101.70 12.92 118.36
in industry/transf./energy 1.11 2.46 97.71 12.92 114.20
of which: feedstocks 0.16 2.46 68.03 12.92 83.57
in transport 3.38 3.38
in other sectors 0.17 0.61 0.77
Electricity and heat output
Electricity generated - TWh 1012.69 0.02 109.87 801.95 925.32 497.60 120.81 108.09 0.63 3577.00
Electricity plants 769.95 64.64 503.26 912.96 497.60 118.98 55.32 0.36 2923.07
CHP plants 242.75 0.02 45.23 298.70 12.36 1.83 52.77 0.27 653.93
Heat generated - PJ 722.42 0.08 178.56 1007.85 4.85 24.20 395.02 3.88 232.82 2569.67
CHP-plants 583.61 0.08 154.30 861.97 4.85 8.28 290.55 1.73 92.89 1998.25
Heat plants 138.81 24.27 145.88 15.92 104.47 2.15 139.93 571.42
International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, OECD/IEA, 2009, Paris, 354 pp. Available at [1]
*) modified from original IEA 2000 Energy Balance data sheet. Other data are not affected
**) domestic supply of fuels for international aviation and navigation are moved to rows 50 and 54 respectively

See also

References

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