Talk:Kuopio Risk Assessment Workshop 2008

Post your questions and comments here

If you have any questions and or comments regarding anything related to the workshop, please post them here and we will try to sort them out. -- Mikko Pohjola 10:10, 5 February 2008 (EET)

Monday 18.2. Skype-cast cancelled

Due to technical problems with the audio equipment at the university, we were not able to make the planned Skype-cast true on Monday 18.2. From tuesday to thursday we will be back to our own institute lecture hall where the connections have been tested to work without problems. --Mikko Pohjola 09:39, 18 February 2008 (EET)

Also thursday 21.2. Skype-cast cancelled

After struggling with some technical difficulties concerning the planned Skype-casting, it has been decided to give up on the idea for the last lecture session. --Mikko Pohjola 09:04, 21 February 2008 (EET)

Draft Lecture outline

Lecture 1: Introduction to Open Risk Assessment (ORA) and the workshop (Jouni)

----1: . Should the first lecture purely concentrate on preparing, inspiring and guiding the people to follow up and adopt what will be presented during following days and save the whole general assessment framework overview to the second lecture, or should the general assessment framework overview be more clearly divided between lectures 1 and 2? --Mikko Pohjola 11:26, 7 February 2008 (EET) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

• Forget everything you knew about risk assessment
• During this week, we will describe a new approach to risk assessment. It has new developments from the theoretical foundation all the way to practical computer tools.
  • a new ontological foundation
  • strictly object-oriented approach
  • a new structure for objects
  • traditional methods for processing information, but organised in a more systematic way
  • tools that enable open collaboration
  • data sources that are directly available and applicable
• ORA is about information processing. The information is about the real world.
• A major aim of the system is to make the work systematic, reuse existing pieces of information, and save time and resources.
• What is the most efficient way of doing ORA?
• Practical way: short discussions only; all questions put into wiki and answered by the following day.
• critical scientific disciplines you should be aware of
  • decision analysis
  • probability theory
  • graph theory
  • pragma-dialectical argumentation theory

Lecture 2: General assessment framework (Mikko)

----2: . This lecture should provide an overview of things coming up during the workshop and (perhaps?) an overview of most important things that will not be covered during the workshop. --Mikko Pohjola 11:26, 7 February 2008 (EET) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

• general assessment framework
  • assessment: process and product
  • context: use, policy, science, ...
• purpose of assessments
  • to describe reality ( variables)
  • to serve a specific need ( assessments + variable scope)
• societal context of assessments
  • assessors, decision makers and stakeholders
• universal assessment products
  • assessment, variable, class
  • causal diagram
  • variable is a hypothesis → falsifiability
• general assessment processes
  • observation
  • information processing: collection, manipulation and synthesis
  • management of assessment process
  • phases of assessment
• properties of good assessments
  • quality of content, applicability, efficiency
  • basis of evaluating assessments
• participation in assessments
  • joint knowledge production
  • improved output of assessments
    • relevance, acceptability, inter-assessment efficiency, ...
• other important concepts? → Glossary

Lecture 3: Information structure of ORA: assessment products and their relations (Mikko)

----3: . This lecture will prepare the participants for combining the variables into a complete assessment in the group work. --Mikko Pohjola 15:16, 7 February 2008 (EET) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

• assessment products
  • variable, assessment, (class)
  • process → product → use
  • structured information objects
  • assessment and variable: hypotheses of a state of being
  • class: practical object type for generalizing knowledge
• relations between product objects
  • ontological hierarchy
  • causality
    • presenting assessments as causal diagrams
  • membership
• internal structure of assessment products
  • attributes, sub-attributes and information content
  • content, description and discussion
• assessment and variable: descriptions of state of being + the process that led to it
• class: a set of structured objects

Lecture 4: Information structure of ORA: defining variables (Jouni)

----4: . This lecture will provide the participants at least the necessary understanding in order to design one's own variable in the group work. --Mikko Pohjola 15:16, 7 February 2008 (EET) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

• variable attributes: name, scope, definition, result
  • variable sub-attributes: data, causality, unit, formula
• data connections vs. causal connections

----9: . It is important for people to understand that variables are living in real time: the name, scope, and content should be relevant also after a long period of time, e.g. a year. (Also, there is no such thing as a "draft variable", it is a real variable which is at a draft stage.) --Jouni 09:35, 8 February 2008 (EET) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Lecture 5: participating in assessments: argumentation (Mikko)

----5: . This lecture will explain how contributing to an assessment happens in particular by means of formal argumentation and give guidance on how to contribute to the assessment outside one's own variable in the group work. --Mikko Pohjola 15:16, 7 February 2008 (EET) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

• pragma-dialectical argumentation theory
  • building blocks of argumentation
  • ideal model of argumentation
  • rules for critical discussion
• argumentation as knowledge creation
  • creation of shared understanding
• argumentation in ORA
  • pragma-dialectics + falsification, information structure and computer-aid
  • dealing with disputes
    • templates for formal discussion
    • standpoint (dispute statement) formulation
    • validity of an argument

Lecture 6: participating in assessments: moderation and quality control (Jouni)

----6: . This lecture will discuss one of the most criticized point in ORA; quality control, and will explain how contributions of an unorganized group of participants can be managed without loss of integrity and/or reliability. --Mikko Pohjola 15:16, 7 February 2008 (EET) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

• principles of open participation
• reader, contributor, moderator, board of moderators
• different levels of protection
  • openly available page
  • page closed; discussion available
  • discussion managed by moderator, contributions via nuggets

Lecture 7: evaluating assessment performance (Mikko)

----7: . This lecture will give guidance on how the group work output could be improved and how the overall outcome can be assessed. --Mikko Pohjola 15:16, 7 February 2008 (EET) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

• properties of good assessments
  • quality of content: informativeness, calibration and relevance
  • applicability: availability, usability and acceptability
  • efficiency: intra-assessment and inter-assessment efficiency
• relations between properties and parts of assessments
• assessment performance
• evaluation of assessment performance
• Group work: evaluation of assessment performance

Lecture 8: assessing uncertainties (Jouni)

----8: . This lecture will address specifically how uncertainty can be assessed within the overall performance assessment. --Mikko Pohjola 15:16, 7 February 2008 (EET) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

• probabilistic (real) uncertainties: informativeness, calibration about result
• model "uncertainties": about definition
• relevance: about scope
• variability vs uncertainty