CLAIH assessment

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Climate change, air quality and housing – future challenges to public health (CLAIH)

 CLAIH analytica model

Scope

Purpose

The purpose of the assessment is to evaluate the health impacts and costs in Finland in the future if different housing policies are undertaken.

More specifically:

  • What would be the health impacts and costs in Finland in 2030 if the society preferred different residential building heating systems and building energy efficiency solutions and fuels and forms for district heat production?
  • What would be optimal combinations of residential building heating systems, building energy efficiency and fuels and forms of district heating?
  • What would be the amount of societal subsidies needed to ensure the transition to the preferred heating systems and energy efficiency in housing?

Preferences for different decisions on residential building heating and energy efficiency solutions are assessed from the perspective of a citizen. Total health impacts and all other societal costs (total costs to all citizens, costs from CO2emissions etc.) from different decision options are assessed from the perspective of the whole Finnish society, and the optimal distribution of societal subsidies for different heating system and energy efficiency solutions are evaluated based on the total costs.

Boundaries

  • Population: Finland
  • Assessment time frame: 2010-2030
  • Evaluated activity: heat production and consumption in residential building stock (detached houses, row houses, apartment buildings)
  • Evaluated exposures:
    • Fine particles (PM2.5)
      • Outdoor concentrations
      • Indoor concentrations from domestic wood combustion
      • Personal exposure
    • Indoor dampness and mold
    • Indoor Radon
    • Indoor air temperatures?
  • Evaluated health impacts:
    • Mortality and morbidity due to long term exposure to PM2.5
    • Asthma incidence due to long term exposure to PM2.5
    • Asthma due to indoor mold and dampness
    • Lung cancer due to indoor radon
  • Other evaluated emissions: CO2
  • Evaluated costs:
    • Costs fron health impacts
    • Costs from building stock heat production and consumption
    • Costs from building stock heating system/energy efficiency renovations
    • Costs from energy infrastructure changes (District heat production development)
    • Costs from CO2 emissions
  • Decisions to be evaluated relate to:
    • Fuel options for district heating (for both large existing CHP plants and small scale district heat production)
    • Form of district heat production (should there be more small scale district heat production?)
    • Household heating system options
    • Building energy efficiency improvement options
    • Building air filtering

Underlying scenarios

  • Climate change (temperature) scenarios based on IPCC
    • A2 (heterogeneous world, rising population, slow technological change)
    • A1B (rapid growth of world economy and population, advent new and more efficient technologies, balanced use of fossil and renewable energy sources)
    • B1 (rapid development towards environmentally friendly technologies)
  • Greenhouse gas emission reduction scenarios

Intended users

  • Ministry of Employment and the Economy
  • Ministry of Social Affairs and Health
  • Ministry of the Environment
  • Any interested party

Participants

  • FMI
  • University of Oulu
  • THL
  • Anyone interested

Definition

CLAIH assessment overview

Decisions to be evaluated

Society:

  • Fuel for district heat production (natural gas, coal, wood, peat, oil, geothermal heat)
  • Form of district heat production (should there be more small scale district heat production?)
  • Subsidies for household heating system/energy efficiency renovations
  • Demands/subsidies for new building stock heating systems/energy efficiency
  • Demands/subsidies for building air filters

Citizen:

  • Household heating system renovations
  • Building energy efficiency renovations


Building stock development

Building stock development modelling


Building heat consumption

Building heat consumption modelling


Emissions


Exposure and exposure-response functions

PM2.5

Modelling of indoor air PM2.5 concentrations from domestic wood combustion

Outdoor air concentration

Indoor air concentration

Personal exposure

ERFs


Indoor dampness and mold


Indoor radon

Heat


Health impacts

Health impact modelling

Health impact indicators

Calculated for all exposures:

  • Attributable mortality and morbidity
  • Loss of disability adjusted life years (DALY)
    • Years of life lost due to mortality (YLL)
    • Years of life lost due to morbidity (YLD)
  • Loss of life-expectancy


Background information needs


Costs

Citizen:

Society

  • Costs from CO2 emissions
  • Costs to citizens


Analyses

  • Cost-effictiveness analysis
  • Cost-benefit analysis
  • Value-of-information analysis

Result

Result

The preliminary results are based on the following assumptions:

Building stock:

  • Annual building stock loss is 0.6%. Only buildings older than 50 years are pulled down.
  • Annual new building stock construction determined by the annual building stock loss 0.6%) and annual increase in the residential surface area per person (0.7%)
  • All new buildings are current standard in energy efficiency.
  • Fraction of heating systems in new buildings is the same as in the buildings constructed between 2000-2010.
  • No heating system/energy efficiency renovations are done in the current building stock.
  • Energy efficiency of buildings constructed at different decades is based on the building restrictions at the construction time.

Energy production/consumption:

  • District heat production:
    • 75% in large CHP plants, 25% in small scale heat production plants
    • Fraction of used fuels is based on the year 2008.
    • These are assumed to stay the same in the future.
  • Electricity production is based on the year 2008. This is assumed to stay the same in the future.
  • Only primary heating systems in the residential buildings are included in the assessment.
  • Fraction of the combustion techniques used in the domestic wood heating is based on information from the year 2000 (FRESH model).

PM2.5 exposure

  • Only emissions to outdoor air are included in the assessment.
  • PM2.5 emission intake fraction for domestic combustion is based on the PILTTI project.
  • PM2.5 emission intake fraction for large and small power plants are based on KOPRA project.
  • Exposure-response function (RR) for PM2.5 exposure and natural mortality is based on the Tuomisto et al. 2008 expert eliciation study (0.97% (90% Cl 0.02-4.54) per 1 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5.

Mold and dampness exposure

  • Prevalence of mold and dampness exposure in Finnish residences is 15%
  • Exposure-response function for mold and dampness exposure and current asthma is all age groups is 1.56 (1.30–1.86) (Odds ratios for asthma in homes with vs. without visible dampness and/or mold or mold odor)
  • Asthma prevalence in Finnish population is 8% (assumed to be the same in all age groups)

Radon exposure

  • Average radon concentration in Finnish residences is 120 Bq/m3.
  • Exposure-response function (RR) for radon exposure in home and lung cancer mortality is 1.16 (95 % CI 1.05 - 1.31) per 100 Bq/m3.

Results:

Conclusions

See also

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