Monte Carlo simulation
|Moderator:Jouni (see all)|
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Monte Carlo simulation is a method for sampling values from a probability distribution and running a model thousands of times. As a result, a distribution is created for the variable of interest. There are several software tools available for this purpose.
Analytica is a Monte Carlo simulation program that has a user-friendly graphical interface. It is a computational tool for predefined risk/decision models where all the relationships have been mathematically defined.
The main properties are
- Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty propagation
- model structure based on variables and links (similar to DAGs, directed acyclic graphs)
- variable definition using attributes (that are similar to those in the pyrkilo method)
- handling of multidimensional variables in an intelligent way
- hierarchical model structures using modules (i.e. submodels)
- fairly simple file format using XML
- interfaces for importing and exporting data from and to Excel and SQL databases
The main problems include
- not widely used
- commercial program with non-trivial license fees
Discussion on Monte Carlo programs
|Fact discussion: .|
|Opening statement: What should be the program of choice for Monte Carlo modelling?
Closing statement: Analytica is the program to start with, but other programs may be used also.
(A closing statement, when resolved, should be updated to the main page.)
←--6: . B) is a good choice. (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)