Case burden of waterborne microbes

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Question

What are the case burdens (in DALYs) of waterborne microbes? Case burden is the disease burden that is caused by one case of infection of a particular microbe. Infection may be latent or symptomatic, and it may or may not lead to more severe complications or even death.

Rationale

Data

The case burdens are presented as DALYs per case of illness.

Case burdens of waterborne microbes(DALY/case)

Obs	Exposure_agent	Response	Subgroup	Result	Description
1	giardia	gastroenteritis	Age:0-4	0.002425
2	giardia	gastroenteritis	Age:5-9	0.002732
3	giardia	gastroenteritis	Age:10-14	0.004313
4	giardia	gastroenteritis	Age:15-64	0.002572
5	giardia	gastroenteritis	Age:65-79	0.006245
6	giardia	gastroenteritis	Age:80+	0.006245
7	cryptosporidium	gastroenteritis	Age:0-4	0.001216
8	cryptosporidium	gastroenteritis	Age:5-9	0.001989
9	cryptosporidium	gastroenteritis	Age:10-14	0.002877
10	cryptosporidium	gastroenteritis	Age:15-64	0.000818
11	cryptosporidium	gastroenteritis	Age:65-79	0.001174
12	cryptosporidium	gastroenteritis	Age:80+	0.001174
13	cryptosporidium	death	Age:0-4	79.6	probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 9.95E-07 in 0-4-year-olds
14	cryptosporidium	death	Age:5-9	74.7	probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 0 in 5-14-year-olds
15	cryptosporidium	death	Age:10-14	69.7	probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 0 in 5-14-year-olds
16	cryptosporidium	death	Age:15-64	43.3	probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 2.09E-05 in 15-64-year-olds
17	cryptosporidium	death	Age:65-79	14.8	probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 0.00164 in 65-81-year-olds
18	cryptosporidium	death	Age:80+	4.5	probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 0.00164 in 65-81-year-olds
19	norovirus	gastroenteritis	Age:0-4	0.000988
20	norovirus	gastroenteritis	Age:5-9	0.000753
21	norovirus	gastroenteritis	Age:10-14	0.000797
22	norovirus	gastroenteritis	Age:15-64	0.000786
23	norovirus	gastroenteritis	Age:65-81	0.000737
24	norovirus	gastroenteritis	Age:80+	0.000737
25	norovirus	death	Age:0-4	79.6	probability of death from norovirus 2.94E-06 in 0-4-year-olds
26	norovirus	death	Age:5-9	74.7	probability of death from norovirus 0 in 5-65-year-olds
27	norovirus	death	Age:10-14	69.7	probability of death from norovirus 0 in 5-65-year-olds
28	norovirus	death	Age:15-64	43.3	probability of death from norovirus 0 in 5-65-year-olds
29	norovirus	death	Age:65-79	14.8	probability of death from norovirus 0.00024 in 66-81-year-olds
30	norovirus	death	Age:80+	4.8	probability of death from norovirus 0.00024 in 66-81-year-olds
31	sapovirus	gastroenteritis	Age:0-4	0.000988	NOTE! All data for sapovirus is copied from norovirus
32	sapovirus	gastroenteritis	Age:5-9	0.000753
33	sapovirus	gastroenteritis	Age:10-14	0.000797
34	sapovirus	gastroenteritis	Age:15-64	0.000786
35	sapovirus	gastroenteritis	Age:65-81	0.000737
36	sapovirus	gastroenteritis	Age:80+	0.000737
37	sapovirus	death	Age:0-4	79.6	probability of death from norovirus 2.94E-06 in 0-4-year-olds
38	sapovirus	death	Age:5-9	74.7	probability of death from norovirus 0 in 5-65-year-olds
39	sapovirus	death	Age:10-14	69.7	probability of death from norovirus 0 in 5-65-year-olds
40	sapovirus	death	Age:15-64	43.3	probability of death from norovirus 0 in 5-65-year-olds
41	sapovirus	death	Age:65-79	14.8	probability of death from norovirus 0.00024 in 66-81-year-olds
42	sapovirus	death	Age:80+	4.8	probability of death from norovirus 0.00024 in 66-81-year-olds
43	rotavirus	gastroenteritis	Age:0-4	0.002130
44	rotavirus	gastroenteritis	Age:5-9	0.001218
45	rotavirus	gastroenteritis	Age:10-14	0.001281
46	rotavirus	gastroenteritis	Age:15-64	0.000970
47	rotavirus	gastroenteritis	Age:65-79	0.001276
48	rotavirus	gastroenteritis	Age:80+	0.001276
49	rotavirus	death	Age:0-4	79.6	probability of death from rotavirus is 2.13E-05 for 0-4-year-olds
50	rotavirus	death	Age:5-9	74.7	probability of death from rotavirus is 0 for people 5 years or older
51	rotavirus	death	Age:10-14	69.7	probability of death from rotavirus is 0 for people 5 years or older
52	rotavirus	death	Age:15-64	43.3	probability of death from rotavirus is 0 for people 5 years or older
53	rotavirus	death	Age:65-79	14.8	probability of death from rotavirus is 0 for people 5 years or older
54	rotavirus	death	Age:80+	4.8	probability of death from rotavirus is 0 for people 5 years or older
55	campylobacter	gastroenteritis		0.00295
56	campylobacter	clinical Guillian-Barré syndrome		0.29
57	campylobacter	residual Guillian Barré syndrome		5.8
58	campylobacter	reactive arthritis		0.024230	Duration of illness 6 weeks, severity 2.1
59	campylobacter	death		13.3	If ill, probability of death from gastroenteritis is 0.000392, life lost 13.2 years. If ill, probability of death from GBS is 5.33e-6, life lost 18.7 years.
60	E.coli O157:H7	gastroenteritis		0.00062	Probability of gastroenteritis if ill from E. coli is 0.53, severity 0.067, duration 3.4 days.
61	E.coli O157:H7	hemorrhagic colitis		0.00599	Probability of HC if ill from E. coli is 0.47, severity 0.39, duration 5.6 days.
62	E.coli O157:H7	haemolytic uraemic syndrome		0.05351	Probability of HUS if ill from E. coli is 0.01, severity 0.93, duration 21 days.
63	E.coli O157:H7	end stage renal disease		8.7
64	E.coli O157:H7	death		13.2	Probability of death from E. coli infection is 0.00027, life lost 13.2 years. Probability of death from HUS is 0.04, life lost 26.2 years. Probability of death from ESRD is 0.0252, life lost 34 years.

The number of years lost to death are calculated as the average years lost for that age group. The expected life years for each age can be found here. The data used is from 2001-2005.

Data for Giardia used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 1.

Treatment	Age	Probability of needing the treatment if ill	Duration (days)	Severity
untreated	0-4	0.9375	10	0.067
untreated	5-9	0.91034	10	0.067
untreated	10-14	0.72642	10	0.067
untreated	15-64	0.92486	10	0.067
untreated	65-81	0.5365	10	0.067
general practitioner	0-4	0.0609	10	0.393
general practitioner	5-9	0.0852	10	0.393
general practitioner	10-14	0.272	10	0.393
general practitioner	15-64	0.0721	10	0.393
general practitioner	65-81	0.451	10	0.393
hospitalised	0-4	0.0015	30	0.393
hospitalised	5-9	0.00446	30	0.393
hospitalised	10-14	0.00158	30	0.393
hospitalised	15-64	0.00304	30	0.393
hospitalised	65-81	0.0125	30	0.393

Data for Cryptosporidium used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.71.

Treatment	Age	Probability of needing the treatment if ill	Duration (days)	Severity
untreated	0-4	0.91757	3.5	0.067
untreated	5-9	0.80937	3.5	0.067
untreated	10-14	0.68105	3.5	0.067
untreated	15-64	0.97742	3.5	0.067
untreated	65-81	0.94706	3.5	0.067
general practitioner	0-4	0.082	7	0.393
general practitioner	5-9	0.188	7	0.393
general practitioner	10-14	0.316	7	0.393
general practitioner	15-64	0.0209	7	0.393
general practitioner	65-81	0.0367	7	0.393
hospitalised	0-4	0.00043	18.4	0.393
hospitalised	5-9	0.00263	18.4	0.393
hospitalised	10-14	0.0029	18.4	0.393
hospitalised	15-64	0.00166	18.4	0.393
hospitalised	65-81	0.0146	18.4	0.393

Data for norovirus used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.7.

Treatment	Age	Probability of needing the treatment if ill	Duration (days)	Severity
untreated	0-4	0.94877	3.8	0.067
untreated	5-9	0.9902	3.8	0.067
untreated	10-14	0.98239	3.8	0.067
untreated	15-65	0.98434	3.8	0.067
untreated	66-81	0.992741	3.8	0.067
general practitioner	0-4	0.0448	5.73	0.393
general practitioner	5-9	0.0086	5.73	0.393
general practitioner	10-14	0.0154	5.73	0.393
general practitioner	15-65	0.0137	5.73	0.393
general practitioner	66-81	0.00617	5.73	0.393
hospitalized	0-4	0.00643	7.23	0.393
hospitalized	5-9	0.0012	7.23	0.393
hospitalized	10-14	0.00221	7.23	0.393
hospitalized	15-65	0.00196	7.23	0.393
hospitalized	66-81	0.00089	7.23	0.393

The data for rotavirus used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.9.

Treatment	Age	Probability of needing the treatment if ill	Duration (days)	Severity
untreated	0-4	0.82	4.9	0.067
untreated	5-14	0.95	4.9	0.067
untreated	15-64	0.99	4.9	0.067
untreated	65-81	0.97	4.9	0.067
general practitioner	0-4	0.137	7.1	0.393
general practitioner	5-9	0.0244	7.1	0.393
general practitioner	11-14	0.0511	7.1	0.393
general practitioner	15-64	0.0127	7.1	0.393
general practitioner	65-81	0.0299	7.1	0.393
hospitalized	0-4	0.0416	7.7	0.393
hospitalized	5-9	0.0213	7.7	0.393
hospitalized	10-81	0	7.7	0.393

The data for gastroenteritis cases caused by a campylobacter infection used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.33, and the probability of the illness being gastroenteritis is 0.98.----arg8024: . I assume it's 0.98, since the probability of arthritis is 0.02 and the the probability of gbs is 0.0002. --Heta (talk) 13:31, 3 July 2019 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Treatment	Probability of needing the treatment if ill	Duration (days)	Severity
untreated	0.7627	5.1	0.067
general practitioner	0.2373	8.4	0.393
hospitalized	0.0097	14.2	0.393

Calculations

+ Show code- Hide code # This is code "Op_en7947/caseburden" on page [[Case burden of waterborne microbes]]. library(OpasnetUtils) case_burden <- Ovariable("case_burden", ddata="Op_en7947", subset="Case burdens of waterborne microbes") objects.latest("Op_en2031", code_name="subgrouping") # [[ERF]] subgrouping case_burden@data <- subgrouping(case_burden@data) objects.store(case_burden) cat("Ovariable case_burden saved. \n")

See also

• Vesiopas (in Finnish)
• Water guide