Case burden of waterborne microbes
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Question
What are the case burdens (in DALYs) of waterborne microbes? Case burden is the disease burden that is caused by one case of infection of a particular microbe. Infection may be latent or symptomatic, and it may or may not lead to more severe complications or even death.
Answer
Rationale
Data
The case burdens are presented as DALYs per infected individual. These include both those who get ill with the disease as well as those carrying the pathogen.
Obs  Response  Illness  Subgroup  Result  Description 

1  giardia infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 04  0.002425  
2  giardia infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 59  0.002732  
3  giardia infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 1014  0.004313  
4  giardia infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 1564  0.002572  
5  giardia infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 6581  0.006245  
6  cryptosporidium infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 04  0.001713  
7  cryptosporidium infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 59  0.002801  
8  cryptosporidium infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 1014  0.004052  
9  cryptosporidium infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 1564  0.001153  
10  cryptosporidium infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 6581  0.001654  
11  cryptosporidium infection  death  Age:age 04  0.00056  probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 9.95E07 in 04yearolds 
12  cryptosporidium infection  death  Age:age 514  0  probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 0 in 514yearolds 
13  cryptosporidium infection  death  Age:age 1564  0.000616  probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 2.09E05 in 1564yearolds 
14  cryptosporidium infection  death  Age:age 6581  0.009315  probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 0.00164 in 6581yearolds 
15  norovirus infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 04  0.000692  
16  norovirus infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 59  0.000527  
17  norovirus infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 1014  0.000558  
18  norovirus infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 1565  0.000550  
19  norovirus infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 6681  0.000516  
20  norovirus infection  death  Age:age 04  0.000163  probability of death from norovirus 2.94E06 in 04yearolds 
21  norovirus infection  death  Age:age 565  0  probability of death from norovirus 0 in 565yearolds 
22  norovirus infection  death  Age:age 6681  0.00126  probability of death from norovirus 0.00024 in 6681yearolds 
23  rotavirus infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 04  0.001917  
24  rotavirus infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 59  0.001096  
25  rotavirus infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 1114  0.001121  
26  rotavirus infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 1564  0.000889  
27  rotavirus infection  gastroenteritis  Age:age 6581  0.000991  
28  rotavirus infection  death  Age:age 04  0.001514  probability of death from rotavirus is 2.13E05 for 04yearolds 
29  rotavirus infection  death  Age:age 581  0  probability of death from rotavirus is 0 for people 5 years or older 
30  campylobacter infection  gastroenteritis  0.000973  
31  campylobacter infection  clinical GuillianBarré syndrome  0.000019  Probability of getting GBS if ill from campylobacter is 0.0002. DALY/case for clinical GBS is 0.29.  
32  campylobacter infection  residual Guillian Barré syndrome  0.000383  Probability of getting GBS if ill from campylobacter is 0.0002. DALY/case for clinical GBS is 5.8  
33  campylobacter infection  reactive arthritis  0.0001599  Probability of reactive arthritis if ill from campylobacter is 0.02, duration of illness 6 weeks, severity 2.1  
34  campylobacter infection  death  0.001740  Probability of death from gastroenteritis is 0.0004, life lost 13.2 years. Probability of death from GBS is 0.02667, life lost 18.7 years.  
35  E. coli infection  gastroenteritis  0.000273  Probability of gastroenteritis if ill from E. coli is 0.53, severity 0.067, duration 3.4 days.  
36  E. coli infection  hemorrhagic colitis  0.002319  Probability of HC if ill from E. coli is 0.47, severity 0.39, duration 5.6 days.  
37  E. coli infection  haemolytic uraemic syndrome  0.000441  Probability of HUS if ill from E. coli is 0.01, severity 0.93, duration 21 days.  
38  E. coli infection  end stage renal disease  0.008466  Probability of ESRD if already with HUS is 0.118, DALY/case is 8.7.  
39  E. coli infection  death  0.007231  Probability of death from E. coli infection is 0.00027, life lost 13.2 years. Probability of death from HUS is 0.04, life lost 26.2 years. Probability of death from ESRD is 0.0252, life lost 34 years. 
Treatment  Age  Probability of needing the treatment if ill  Duration (days)  Severity 

untreated  04  0.9375  10  0.067 
untreated  59  0.91034  10  0.067 
untreated  1014  0.72642  10  0.067 
untreated  1564  0.92486  10  0.067 
untreated  6581  0.5365  10  0.067 
general practitioner  04  0.0609  10  0.393 
general practitioner  59  0.0852  10  0.393 
general practitioner  1014  0.272  10  0.393 
general practitioner  1564  0.0721  10  0.393 
general practitioner  6581  0.451  10  0.393 
hospitalised  04  0.0015  30  0.393 
hospitalised  59  0.00446  30  0.393 
hospitalised  1014  0.00158  30  0.393 
hospitalised  1564  0.00304  30  0.393 
hospitalised  6581  0.0125  30  0.393 
Data for Cryptosporidium used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.71.
Treatment  Age  Probability of needing the treatment if ill  Duration (days)  Severity 

untreated  04  0.91757  3.5  0.067 
untreated  59  0.80937  3.5  0.067 
untreated  1014  0.68105  3.5  0.067 
untreated  1564  0.97742  3.5  0.067 
untreated  6581  0.94706  3.5  0.067 
general practitioner  04  0.082  7  0.393 
general practitioner  59  0.188  7  0.393 
general practitioner  1014  0.316  7  0.393 
general practitioner  1564  0.0209  7  0.393 
general practitioner  6581  0.0367  7  0.393 
hospitalised  04  0.00043  18.4  0.393 
hospitalised  59  0.00263  18.4  0.393 
hospitalised  1014  0.0029  18.4  0.393 
hospitalised  1564  0.00166  18.4  0.393 
hospitalised  6581  0.0146  18.4  0.393 
Data for norovirus used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.7.
Treatment  Age  Probability of needing the treatment if ill  Duration (days)  Severity 

untreated  04  0.94877  3.8  0.067 
untreated  59  0.9902  3.8  0.067 
untreated  1014  0.98239  3.8  0.067 
untreated  1565  0.98434  3.8  0.067 
untreated  6681  0.992741  3.8  0.067 
general practitioner  04  0.0448  5.73  0.393 
general practitioner  59  0.0086  5.73  0.393 
general practitioner  1014  0.0154  5.73  0.393 
general practitioner  1565  0.0137  5.73  0.393 
general practitioner  6681  0.00617  5.73  0.393 
hospitalized  04  0.00643  7.23  0.393 
hospitalized  59  0.0012  7.23  0.393 
hospitalized  1014  0.00221  7.23  0.393 
hospitalized  1565  0.00196  7.23  0.393 
hospitalized  6681  0.00089  7.23  0.393 
The data for rotavirus used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.9.
Treatment  Age  Probability of needing the treatment if ill  Duration (days)  Severity 

untreated  04  0.82  4.9  0.067 
untreated  514  0.95  4.9  0.067 
untreated  1564  0.99  4.9  0.067 
untreated  6581  0.97  4.9  0.067 
general practitioner  04  0.137  7.1  0.393 
general practitioner  59  0.0244  7.1  0.393 
general practitioner  1114  0.0511  7.1  0.393 
general practitioner  1564  0.0127  7.1  0.393 
general practitioner  6581  0.0299  7.1  0.393 
hospitalized  04  0.0416  7.7  0.393 
hospitalized  59  0.0213  7.7  0.393 
hospitalized  1081  0  7.7  0.393 
The data for gastroenteritis cases caused by a campylobacter infection used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.33, and the probability of the illness being gastroenteritis is 0.98.arg8024: . I assume it's 0.98, since the probability of arthritis is 0.02 and the the probability of gbs is 0.0002. Heta (talk) 13:31, 3 July 2019 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
Treatment  Probability of needing the treatment if ill  Duration (days)  Severity 

untreated  0.7627  5.1  0.067 
general practitioner  0.2373  8.4  0.393 
hospitalized  0.0097  14.2  0.393 
Calculations
RCode
See also
 Vesiopas (in Finnish)
 Water guide