Case burden of waterborne microbes

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Question

What are the case burdens (in DALYs) of waterborne microbes? Case burden is the disease burden that is caused by one case of infection of a particular microbe. Infection may be latent or symptomatic, and it may or may not lead to more severe complications or even death.

Answer

Rationale

Data

The case burdens are presented as DALYs per case of illness.

Case burdens of waterborne microbes(DALY/case)
ObsExposure_agent Response SubgroupResultDescription
1giardiagastroenteritisAge:0-40.002425
2giardiagastroenteritisAge:5-90.002732
3giardiagastroenteritisAge:10-140.004313
4giardiagastroenteritisAge:15-640.002572
5giardiagastroenteritisAge:65-790.006245
6giardiagastroenteritisAge:80+0.006245
7cryptosporidiumgastroenteritisAge:0-40.001216
8cryptosporidiumgastroenteritisAge:5-90.001989
9cryptosporidiumgastroenteritisAge:10-140.002877
10cryptosporidiumgastroenteritisAge:15-640.000818
11cryptosporidiumgastroenteritisAge:65-790.001174
12cryptosporidiumgastroenteritisAge:80+0.001174
13cryptosporidiumdeathAge:0-479.6 probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 9.95E-07 in 0-4-year-olds
14cryptosporidiumdeathAge:5-974.7probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 0 in 5-14-year-olds
15cryptosporidiumdeathAge:10-1469.7probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 0 in 5-14-year-olds
16cryptosporidiumdeathAge:15-6443.3probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 2.09E-05 in 15-64-year-olds
17cryptosporidiumdeathAge:65-7914.8probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 0.00164 in 65-81-year-olds
18cryptosporidiumdeathAge:80+4.5probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 0.00164 in 65-81-year-olds
19norovirusgastroenteritisAge:0-40.000988
20norovirusgastroenteritisAge:5-90.000753
21norovirusgastroenteritisAge:10-140.000797
22norovirusgastroenteritisAge:15-640.000786
23norovirusgastroenteritisAge:65-810.000737
24norovirusgastroenteritisAge:80+0.000737
25norovirusdeathAge:0-479.6 probability of death from norovirus 2.94E-06 in 0-4-year-olds
26norovirusdeathAge:5-974.7 probability of death from norovirus 0 in 5-65-year-olds
27norovirusdeathAge:10-1469.7 probability of death from norovirus 0 in 5-65-year-olds
28norovirusdeathAge:15-6443.3 probability of death from norovirus 0 in 5-65-year-olds
29norovirusdeathAge:65-7914.8 probability of death from norovirus 0.00024 in 66-81-year-olds
30norovirusdeathAge:80+4.8 probability of death from norovirus 0.00024 in 66-81-year-olds
31rotavirusgastroenteritisAge:0-40.002130
32rotavirusgastroenteritisAge:5-90.001218
33rotavirusgastroenteritisAge:10-140.001281
34rotavirusgastroenteritisAge:15-640.000970
35rotavirusgastroenteritisAge:65-790.001276
36rotavirusgastroenteritisAge:80+0.001276
37rotavirusdeathAge:0-479.6 probability of death from rotavirus is 2.13E-05 for 0-4-year-olds
38rotavirusdeathAge:5-974.7 probability of death from rotavirus is 0 for people 5 years or older
39rotavirusdeathAge:10-1469.7 probability of death from rotavirus is 0 for people 5 years or older
40rotavirusdeathAge:15-6443.3 probability of death from rotavirus is 0 for people 5 years or older
41rotavirusdeathAge:65-7914.8 probability of death from rotavirus is 0 for people 5 years or older
42rotavirusdeathAge:80+4.8 probability of death from rotavirus is 0 for people 5 years or older
43campylobactergastroenteritis0.00295
44campylobacterclinical Guillian-Barré syndrome0.29
45campylobacterresidual Guillian Barré syndrome5.8
46campylobacterreactive arthritis0.024230 Duration of illness 6 weeks, severity 2.1
47campylobacterdeath13.3 If ill, probability of death from gastroenteritis is 0.000392, life lost 13.2 years. If ill, probability of death from GBS is 5.33e-6, life lost 18.7 years.
48E.coli O157:H7gastroenteritis0.00062 Probability of gastroenteritis if ill from E. coli is 0.53, severity 0.067, duration 3.4 days.
49E.coli O157:H7hemorrhagic colitis0.00599 Probability of HC if ill from E. coli is 0.47, severity 0.39, duration 5.6 days.
50E.coli O157:H7haemolytic uraemic syndrome0.05351 Probability of HUS if ill from E. coli is 0.01, severity 0.93, duration 21 days.
51E.coli O157:H7end stage renal disease8.7
52E.coli O157:H7death13.2 Probability of death from E. coli infection is 0.00027, life lost 13.2 years. Probability of death from HUS is 0.04, life lost 26.2 years. Probability of death from ESRD is 0.0252, life lost 34 years.

The number of years lost to death are calculated as the average years lost for that age group. The expected life years for each age can be found here. The data used is from 2001-2005.

Data for Giardia used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 1.
Treatment Age Probability of needing the treatment if ill Duration (days) Severity
untreated 0-4 0.9375 10 0.067
untreated 5-9 0.91034 10 0.067
untreated 10-14 0.72642 10 0.067
untreated 15-64 0.92486 10 0.067
untreated 65-81 0.5365 10 0.067
general practitioner 0-4 0.0609 10 0.393
general practitioner 5-9 0.0852 10 0.393
general practitioner 10-14 0.272 10 0.393
general practitioner 15-64 0.0721 10 0.393
general practitioner 65-81 0.451 10 0.393
hospitalised 0-4 0.0015 30 0.393
hospitalised 5-9 0.00446 30 0.393
hospitalised 10-14 0.00158 30 0.393
hospitalised 15-64 0.00304 30 0.393
hospitalised 65-81 0.0125 30 0.393

Data for Cryptosporidium used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.71.

Treatment Age Probability of needing the treatment if ill Duration (days) Severity
untreated 0-4 0.91757 3.5 0.067
untreated 5-9 0.80937 3.5 0.067
untreated 10-14 0.68105 3.5 0.067
untreated 15-64 0.97742 3.5 0.067
untreated 65-81 0.94706 3.5 0.067
general practitioner 0-4 0.082 7 0.393
general practitioner 5-9 0.188 7 0.393
general practitioner 10-14 0.316 7 0.393
general practitioner 15-64 0.0209 7 0.393
general practitioner 65-81 0.0367 7 0.393
hospitalised 0-4 0.00043 18.4 0.393
hospitalised 5-9 0.00263 18.4 0.393
hospitalised 10-14 0.0029 18.4 0.393
hospitalised 15-64 0.00166 18.4 0.393
hospitalised 65-81 0.0146 18.4 0.393


Data for norovirus used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.7.

Treatment Age Probability of needing the treatment if ill Duration (days) Severity
untreated 0-4 0.94877 3.8 0.067
untreated 5-9 0.9902 3.8 0.067
untreated 10-14 0.98239 3.8 0.067
untreated 15-65 0.98434 3.8 0.067
untreated 66-81 0.992741 3.8 0.067
general practitioner 0-4 0.0448 5.73 0.393
general practitioner 5-9 0.0086 5.73 0.393
general practitioner 10-14 0.0154 5.73 0.393
general practitioner 15-65 0.0137 5.73 0.393
general practitioner 66-81 0.00617 5.73 0.393
hospitalized 0-4 0.00643 7.23 0.393
hospitalized 5-9 0.0012 7.23 0.393
hospitalized 10-14 0.00221 7.23 0.393
hospitalized 15-65 0.00196 7.23 0.393
hospitalized 66-81 0.00089 7.23 0.393

The data for rotavirus used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.9.

Treatment Age Probability of needing the treatment if ill Duration (days) Severity
untreated 0-4 0.82 4.9 0.067
untreated 5-14 0.95 4.9 0.067
untreated 15-64 0.99 4.9 0.067
untreated 65-81 0.97 4.9 0.067
general practitioner 0-4 0.137 7.1 0.393
general practitioner 5-9 0.0244 7.1 0.393
general practitioner 11-14 0.0511 7.1 0.393
general practitioner 15-64 0.0127 7.1 0.393
general practitioner 65-81 0.0299 7.1 0.393
hospitalized 0-4 0.0416 7.7 0.393
hospitalized 5-9 0.0213 7.7 0.393
hospitalized 10-81 0 7.7 0.393


The data for gastroenteritis cases caused by a campylobacter infection used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.33, and the probability of the illness being gastroenteritis is 0.98.----arg8024: . I assume it's 0.98, since the probability of arthritis is 0.02 and the the probability of gbs is 0.0002. --Heta (talk) 13:31, 3 July 2019 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Treatment Probability of needing the treatment if ill Duration (days) Severity
untreated 0.7627 5.1 0.067
general practitioner 0.2373 8.4 0.393
hospitalized 0.0097 14.2 0.393

Calculations

+ Show code

See also