Case burden of waterborne microbes

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Question

What are the case burdens (in DALYs) of waterborne microbes? Case burden is the disease burden that is caused by one case of infection of a particular microbe. Infection may be latent or symptomatic, and it may or may not lead to more severe complications or even death.

Answer

Rationale

Data

The case burdens are presented as DALYs per infected individual. These include both those who get ill with the disease as well as those carrying the pathogen.

Case burdens of waterborne microbes(DALY/infection)
ObsResponse Illness SubgroupResultDescription
1giardia infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 0-40.002425
2giardia infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 5-90.002732
3giardia infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 10-140.004313
4giardia infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 15-640.002572
5giardia infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 65-810.006245
6cryptosporidium infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 0-40.001713
7cryptosporidium infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 5-90.002801
8cryptosporidium infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 10-140.004052
9cryptosporidium infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 15-640.001153
10cryptosporidium infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 65-810.001654
11cryptosporidium infectiondeathAge:age 0-40.00056 probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 9.95E-07 in 0-4-year-olds
12cryptosporidium infectiondeathAge:age 5-140probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 0 in 5-14-year-olds
13cryptosporidium infectiondeathAge:age 15-640.000616probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 2.09E-05 in 15-64-year-olds
14cryptosporidium infectiondeathAge:age 65-810.009315probability of death of cryptosporidium infection 0.00164 in 65-81-year-olds
15norovirus infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 0-40.000692
16norovirus infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 5-90.000527
17norovirus infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 10-140.000558
18norovirus infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 15-650.000550
19norovirus infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 66-810.000516
20norovirus infectiondeathAge:age 0-40.000163 probability of death from norovirus 2.94E-06 in 0-4-year-olds
21norovirus infectiondeathAge:age 5-650 probability of death from norovirus 0 in 5-65-year-olds
22norovirus infectiondeathAge:age 66-810.00126 probability of death from norovirus 0.00024 in 66-81-year-olds
23rotavirus infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 0-40.001917
24rotavirus infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 5-90.001096
25rotavirus infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 11-140.001121
26rotavirus infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 15-640.000889
27rotavirus infectiongastroenteritisAge:age 65-810.000991
28rotavirus infectiondeathAge:age 0-40.001514 probability of death from rotavirus is 2.13E-05 for 0-4-year-olds
29rotavirus infectiondeathAge:age 5-810 probability of death from rotavirus is 0 for people 5 years or older
30campylobacter infectiongastroenteritis0.000973
31campylobacter infectionclinical Guillian-Barré syndrome0.000019 Probability of getting GBS if ill from campylobacter is 0.0002. DALY/case for clinical GBS is 0.29.
32campylobacter infectionresidual Guillian Barré syndrome0.000383 Probability of getting GBS if ill from campylobacter is 0.0002. DALY/case for clinical GBS is 5.8
33campylobacter infectionreactive arthritis0.0001599 Probability of reactive arthritis if ill from campylobacter is 0.02, duration of illness 6 weeks, severity 2.1
34campylobacter infectiondeath0.001740 Probability of death from gastroenteritis is 0.0004, life lost 13.2 years. Probability of death from GBS is 0.02667, life lost 18.7 years.
35E. coli infectiongastroenteritis0.000273 Probability of gastroenteritis if ill from E. coli is 0.53, severity 0.067, duration 3.4 days.
36E. coli infectionhemorrhagic colitis0.002319 Probability of HC if ill from E. coli is 0.47, severity 0.39, duration 5.6 days.
37E. coli infectionhaemolytic uraemic syndrome0.000441 Probability of HUS if ill from E. coli is 0.01, severity 0.93, duration 21 days.
38E. coli infectionend stage renal disease0.008466 Probability of ESRD if already with HUS is 0.118, DALY/case is 8.7.
39E. coli infectiondeath0.007231 Probability of death from E. coli infection is 0.00027, life lost 13.2 years. Probability of death from HUS is 0.04, life lost 26.2 years. Probability of death from ESRD is 0.0252, life lost 34 years.


Data for Giardia used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 1.
Treatment Age Probability of needing the treatment if ill Duration (days) Severity
untreated 0-4 0.9375 10 0.067
untreated 5-9 0.91034 10 0.067
untreated 10-14 0.72642 10 0.067
untreated 15-64 0.92486 10 0.067
untreated 65-81 0.5365 10 0.067
general practitioner 0-4 0.0609 10 0.393
general practitioner 5-9 0.0852 10 0.393
general practitioner 10-14 0.272 10 0.393
general practitioner 15-64 0.0721 10 0.393
general practitioner 65-81 0.451 10 0.393
hospitalised 0-4 0.0015 30 0.393
hospitalised 5-9 0.00446 30 0.393
hospitalised 10-14 0.00158 30 0.393
hospitalised 15-64 0.00304 30 0.393
hospitalised 65-81 0.0125 30 0.393

Data for Cryptosporidium used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.71.

Treatment Age Probability of needing the treatment if ill Duration (days) Severity
untreated 0-4 0.91757 3.5 0.067
untreated 5-9 0.80937 3.5 0.067
untreated 10-14 0.68105 3.5 0.067
untreated 15-64 0.97742 3.5 0.067
untreated 65-81 0.94706 3.5 0.067
general practitioner 0-4 0.082 7 0.393
general practitioner 5-9 0.188 7 0.393
general practitioner 10-14 0.316 7 0.393
general practitioner 15-64 0.0209 7 0.393
general practitioner 65-81 0.0367 7 0.393
hospitalised 0-4 0.00043 18.4 0.393
hospitalised 5-9 0.00263 18.4 0.393
hospitalised 10-14 0.0029 18.4 0.393
hospitalised 15-64 0.00166 18.4 0.393
hospitalised 65-81 0.0146 18.4 0.393


Data for norovirus used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.7.

Treatment Age Probability of needing the treatment if ill Duration (days) Severity
untreated 0-4 0.94877 3.8 0.067
untreated 5-9 0.9902 3.8 0.067
untreated 10-14 0.98239 3.8 0.067
untreated 15-65 0.98434 3.8 0.067
untreated 66-81 0.992741 3.8 0.067
general practitioner 0-4 0.0448 5.73 0.393
general practitioner 5-9 0.0086 5.73 0.393
general practitioner 10-14 0.0154 5.73 0.393
general practitioner 15-65 0.0137 5.73 0.393
general practitioner 66-81 0.00617 5.73 0.393
hospitalized 0-4 0.00643 7.23 0.393
hospitalized 5-9 0.0012 7.23 0.393
hospitalized 10-14 0.00221 7.23 0.393
hospitalized 15-65 0.00196 7.23 0.393
hospitalized 66-81 0.00089 7.23 0.393

The data for rotavirus used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.9.

Treatment Age Probability of needing the treatment if ill Duration (days) Severity
untreated 0-4 0.82 4.9 0.067
untreated 5-14 0.95 4.9 0.067
untreated 15-64 0.99 4.9 0.067
untreated 65-81 0.97 4.9 0.067
general practitioner 0-4 0.137 7.1 0.393
general practitioner 5-9 0.0244 7.1 0.393
general practitioner 11-14 0.0511 7.1 0.393
general practitioner 15-64 0.0127 7.1 0.393
general practitioner 65-81 0.0299 7.1 0.393
hospitalized 0-4 0.0416 7.7 0.393
hospitalized 5-9 0.0213 7.7 0.393
hospitalized 10-81 0 7.7 0.393


The data for gastroenteritis cases caused by a campylobacter infection used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.33, and the probability of the illness being gastroenteritis is 0.98.----arg8024: . I assume it's 0.98, since the probability of arthritis is 0.02 and the the probability of gbs is 0.0002. --Heta (talk) 13:31, 3 July 2019 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Treatment Probability of needing the treatment if ill Duration (days) Severity
untreated 0.7627 5.1 0.067
general practitioner 0.2373 8.4 0.393
hospitalized 0.0097 14.2 0.393

Calculations

RCode

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See also