Helsinki energy decision 2015
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This website contains an on-going impact assessment to support the decision making on how energy should be produced in Helsinki in the future. The City of Helsinki is making a major decision about power plants in 2015, and it will affect the energy supply in Helsinki for decades. Political discussion is active, but quantitative, analytical assessments are scarce, especially those that are also looking at health and climate impacts. How to continuously supply energy for the heating and electricity needs of Helsinki in all circumstances all year round for the next fifty years? An energy balance assessment is needed with several output indicators, such as cost, climate emissions, health, supply security, and domestic growth. How can decentralised energy supply and energy efficiency renovations improve the situation? The latter question was asked by the city council in spring 2015, and an other assessment (coordinated by the City of Helsinki and Helen energy company) is ongoing to also answer that question by September 2015. The National Institute of Health and Welfare THL is performing an open assessment in Opasnet web-workspace during summer 2015. We are developing an assessment model (called Sofia) to estimate feasibility and impacts of several suggested solutions to the Helsinki energy decision. Sofia is an energy balance model that optimises the costs of energy production in a way that the district heat demand is met every day with appropriate supply from the power plants in Helsinki. The situation is followed from 1985 to 2065. Sofia is looking also at other heat and electricity consumption, but not traffic or industry. Based on the balanced energy supply, Sofia estimates the fuel and other costs as well as greenhouse gas and fine particle emissions for power plants and other energy processes. The model can handle several scenarios that can be compared with each other to see the impacts of different actions (such as building renovations or new power plants) on the overall situation. Sofia is able to calculate the building stock and its energy use based on average energy intensity per floor area and outdoor temperature. It also finds the optimal use of existing power plants for different situations for the whole timespan of the assessment. The model suggests how the energy demand could be covered in the future when different impacts are considered. Production costs are optimised, but also other criteria could be used. Currently, Sofia suggests the use of Vuosaari A&B gas plant as the main energy source of energy, but if Vuosaari C biofuel plant were built, the importance of Vuosaari A&B would diminish. Such guidance is naturally based on the data that Sofia currently has, and her recommendations are likely to change when more and more precise data is collected. According to the principles of open assessment, we invite anybody who is interested in Helsinki's energy decision to participate and browse through the pages of this assessment. All data and all parts of the model are openly available in machine-readable format. All comments, criticism, and update suggestions are welcome. |
Scope
Question
Helsinki must be able to provide its residents with reliable, climate-friendly and cost-effective district heating and electricity every day all year round for the decades to come. When this energy balance is assessed, what options does Helsinki have for main energy solutions? What kind of impacts do these options have in terms of
- climate mitigation,
- stability (fuel availability etc),
- cost to the city and citizens,
- environment,
- biofuel use,
- national energy balance,
- domestic source,
- health?[1]
Intended use and users
Helsinki City Council will make a major decision in autumn 2015 about renovating old power plants, building a new one, or some other option replacing the need of the old power plants. Therefore, the City Council is the major user of the assessment. There are also secondary uses, such as informing national energy discussion and demonstrating the usefulness of an open combined energy balance and building model.
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Decisions and scenarios
- Main article: Helsinki energy decision options 2015
The two options in the official decision preparation are Hanasaari shutdown and Vuosaari, and Hanasaari 40 bio and Salmisaari 40 bio. However, also other options have been suggested, and also they are evaluated at least superficially.
- BAU: Only small, essential renovations are made to current power plants to stay within new emission limits.
- Vuosaari C: A new power plant is built in Vuosaari with the capacity to burn 100 % wood-based fuel or any combination of wood-based fuels and coal.
- Hanasaari shutdown: The Hanasaari powerplant is shut down, demolished and apartment buildings are built in its place.
- Hanasaari 40 bio: The Hanasaari power plant is renovated to burn 40% wood-based fuels and 60% coal.
- Salmisaari 40 bio: The Salmisaari power plants are renovated to burn 40% wood-based fuels and 60% coal.
- Biofueled heat production units: Salmisaari oilfueled heat plant is shut down and new biofuel burning heat plants are built in Salmisaari and Vuorsaari.
- Loviisa nuclear CHP: A third nuclear power plant is built in Loviisa and the heat is used for district heating in Helsinki.
- Neste excess heat: The excess heat from the Neste's oil refinery in Porvoo is used for district heating in Helsinki.
- Decentralised energy production: The amount of decentralised energy production is increased as much as possible. Practically this means building a lot more solar panels, geothermal power, small-scale wood burning and wind mills around Helsinki.
- Large heat pumps: Big heat pumps are installed to draw heat from the Baltic sea or deep from the ground to produce district heating.
- Energy saving: With huge energy saving campaigns and by renovating buildings to be more energy efficient the amount of required energy is decreased significantly.
BAU | Process heat | Helen proposition | Zero investment | Carbon neutral 2050 | CHP bio | Distributed and sea | |
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Biofuel heat plants | No | No | Yes | No | No | No | No |
CHP diesel generators | No | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
Data center heat | No | Yes | No | No | No | No | Yes |
Deep-drill heat | No | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
Hanasaari | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | No | No | No |
Household air heat pumps | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Household air conditioning | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Household geothermal heat | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Household solar | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Katri Vala cooling | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Katri Vala heat | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Kellosaari back-up plant | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Kymijoki River's plants | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Loviisa nuclear heat | No | Yes | No | No | No | No | No |
Neste oil refinery heat | No | Yes | No | No | No | No | No |
Salmisaari A&B | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
Salmisaari biofuel renovation | No | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | No |
Sea heat pump | No | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
Sea heat pump for cooling | No | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
Small-scale wood burning | No | No | No | No | No | No | No |
Small gas heat plants | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Small fuel oil heat plants | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Suvilahti power storage | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Vanhakaupunki museum | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Vuosaari A | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Vuosaari B | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Vuosaari C biofuel | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | No |
Wind mills | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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There are two policies that are currently implemented in the model. Each has several options:
- Energy saving policy: take several actions that reduce the energy demand of the building stock.
- BAU: business as usual, e.g. renovate 1 % of buildings per year if age > 30 a.
- Energy saving moderate: renovate 2 %/a
- Energy saving total: renovate 4 %/a, in addition increase the share of passive buildings up by 25 %-units since 2025, and add the share of sheath reform renovations up by 25 %-units.
- Plant policy: Choose an optimal selection of power plant infrastructure
- BAU: Old plants remain as planned but Vuosaari C biofuel, Loviisa nuclear heat, and Neste oil refinery heat are not built.
- Biofuels and process heat: Old plants remain as planned. In addition, Vuosaari C biofuel, Loviisa nuclear heat, and Neste oil refinery heat are built.
←--#: . If you have ideas about options that should be modelled, please just contact us and we'll try and adjust the model accordingly. --Jouni (talk) 08:54, 15 July 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)
Timing
The assessment started in May 2015. First draft results are expected before midsummer 2015. Final results should be available well before the City Council makes the decision in autumn, which means that results should exist by September 15th, 2015. There will be a public meeting to present the near-final results and discuss their implications. The meeting is held in THL, Helsinki on 31st August 2015 at noon.
Answer
Current results:
- Model run 6.9.2015
- Model run 5.9.2015
- Model run 4.9.2015 Cost calculations are up to profit including external costs.
- Model run 29.7.2015 Full run with lots of graphs.
- What happens if you shut down both fossil and biofuel plants?
- What happens if you shut down coal and gas power plants?
- What happens if you shut down both coal-fired power plants?
Results
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Daily average production of energy in the city of Helsinki depending on the outside temperature for business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and year 2035.
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Total annual expenditure and production of energy in the city of Helsinki in years 2015, 2035 and 2065 depending on the energy policy adopted.
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Current data and estimation of future building stock of Helsinki by heating type.
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Energy used in heating in Helsinki by energy saving policy and different energy renovations that are done to buildings older than 30 a.
Development of prices of power plant fuels over time.
Conclusions
Rationale

Stakeholders
The impacts are assessed and valued from the point of view of the following stakeholders:
- The city of Helsinki
- Helen Oy energy company
- A citizen of Helsinki
- Finland
- Global view
Dependencies
- List of key pages used in model
- Helsinki energy decision 2015: Main page of assessment.
- Helsinki energy decision options 2015: More detailed information on the different options available.
- Building model: Method of estimating the size of the building stock of a city, including heating properties and renovations.
- Building stock in Helsinki: Data on the building stock in Helsinki and its projected future.
- Energy use of buildings: Method of estimating energy need based on building stock and outdoor temperature.
- Helsinki energy consumption: Data on the energy consumption of buildings.
- Energy balance: Method of calculating energy balance.
- Helsinki energy production: Data on the energy production in Helsinki.
- Energy balance in Helsinki: Data on the amounts of energy produced, consumed, imported, and exported in Helsinki.
- Emission factors for burning processes: Data on the emission factors for burning processes in Finland.
- Prices of fuels in heat production: Data on market prices of fuels used in Helsinki
- Other models used in the Helsinki assessment (but are not in the core of this assessment)
- Burden of disease in Finland: Data on disease burden.
- Exposure-response function: Description of ERF, a mathematical construct used to describe a probability of different responses to a given exposure.
- Health impact assessment: Method of estimating the health impacts of a particular event or policy.
- ERFs of environmental pollutants: Data on the exposure-response function of several environmental pollutants that do not have their own pages.
- Exposures in Finland: Data on the typical exposure levels of common pollutants in Finland.
- Disease risk: Data on the incidence or prevalence rates of different diseases in Finland.
- Population attributable fraction: Method of calculating the fraction of disease that would disappear if the exposure to that agent would disappear.
- Population of Helsinki metropolitan area: Data on the total population of Helsinki metropolitan area.
- Intake fractions of PM: Data on the intake fractions of airborne particulate matter for different emission sources and locations.
- Exposure to PM2.5 in Finland: Method of estimating exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) in the Finnish population.
- Emission assessment of small-scale energy production in the Helsinki metropolitan area: Assessment evaluating the greenhouse gas emissions and emission trading costs of small-scale (output less than 50 MW) energy production in the Helsinki metropolitan area.
- OpasnetUtils/Drafts
[show]Variable | Measure | Indices |
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Analyses
- Cost-benefit analysis of different options. Costs considered: capital and operational costs of energy production, climate costs (CO2e emissions converted to euros), health (DALYs converted to euros).
- Total capacity availability and feasibility (applies especially to decentralised option).
- Temporal heat and power demand and supply (hourly resolution).
Indices
- Temporal: Time (5-year observation periods)
- Temperature (3-degree-Celsius intervals for ambient daily average temperatures. It is assumed that heating is not needed above 17 C and cooling is not needed below 24 C. Hot water need is independent of ambient temperature.
- Decisions: EnergySavingPolicy contains options that reduce the energy need of the building stock and other consumption. PlantPolicy contains options about which energy plants to build (or demolish).
- Stakeholder (Citizen, City, Helen, Finland)
- Spatial: City area (summed up after energy need)
- Health: Response (any disease that is linked to Exposure agents emitted)
- Emission, exposure: Pollutant or Exposure agent (any agent that is emitted by energy production)
- Energy production: Burner (type of burner used in the facility where energy is produced), Fuel (type of fuel used in energy production), Heating (type of heating in the building).
- Buildings: Building [use type], Heating, Constructed, City area, Renovation, Efficiency.
Calculations
- Model run 2.7.2015 with intermediate result tables but a problem with totcases.
- Model run 5.7.2015
- Model run 6.7.2015 with corrected energyBalance model.
- Model run 7.7.2015
- Model run 8.7.2015 with daily heat optimising
- Model run 9.7.2015 with also consumer electricity and cooling
- Model run 9.7.2015 attempt to adjust decisions to plausible
- Model run 11.7.2015 updated emission factors and decision options
- Model run 12.7.2015
- Model run 15.7.2015 the whole model works but there seems to be a unit conversion error or similar from energy balance on.
- Model run 15.7.2015 long-term plant activity and fuel use added
- Model run 16.7.2015 used to store intermediate results for Answer code.
- New model initial run 23.7.2015
- Model run 24.7.2015
- Model run 27.7.2015
- Model run 27.7.2015 with shorter names and clearer graphs.
- Model run 29.7.2015
- Model run 14.8.2015 Total construction corrected but oil heating not yet. Objects saved.
- Model run 16.8.2016 With first cost estimates
- Model run 16.8.2015 Better cost estimates. Objects stored.
- Model run 17.8.2015 Incremental oil heating conversion to geothermal implemented.
- Model run 29.8.2015 Fixed plot scaling
- Model run 2.9.2015 with updated process and price parameters.
- Model run 4.9.2015 BAU and Helen's bio decision updated.
- Model run 5.9.2015 with technical improvements
- [3] some bugs fixed, no the whole model works
Name intermediates temporarily removed so than nobody accidentally runs a version that does not store objects.
Preference order
DALY shortcut
This code creates a ready-made DALYs estimate for 1 ug/m^3 PM2.5. It is much quicker to calculate health impacts of case-specific emissions with this ovariable, if there is a large emissions ovariable and if the exposure is such that proportionality can be assumed in health impacts.
See also
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- Entsoe Statistical fact sheet 2014
- Timo Korpela: Pienkuluttaja on tuulisähkön maksumies
- Timo Korpela: Helsingin energiaratkaisu tulee harkita tarkoin
- http://energia.fi/sahkomarkkinat/sahkon-hinta-ja-sopimukset/sahkon-alkupera
- http://energia.fi/julkaisut/sahkomarkkinavisio-2030 (ehkä vähän vanha, 2011??)
- http://energia.fi/sites/default/files/sahkomarkkinakatsaus_20150701.pdf
- https://www.entsoe.eu/Documents/Publications/Statistics/Factsheet/entsoe_sfs2014_web.pdf
- http://www.nordpoolspot.com/How-does-it-work/The-market-members/Producers/
- http://energia.fi/sites/default/files/et_labelling_suositus2013_final.pdf
- http://www.vtt.fi/inf/pdf/technology/2014/T165.pdf
- http://www.hel.fi/static/ymk/julkaisut/julkaisu-07-14.pdf
- https://www.tem.fi/files/36292/Energia-_ja_ilmastostrategia_nettijulkaisu_ENGLANNINKIELINEN.pdf
- Climate change policies in Helsinki: Related assessment on reducing GHG emissions in Helsinki.
- Climate change policies and health in Kuopio: Related assessment on reducing GHG emissions in Kuopio.
- Making sense of climate science denial a web course by University of Queensland
- HS: Kivihiilikielto lässähtänee visioksi 22,6,2015
- Pienistä pellettimääristä suuriin pellettimääriin Sofia Grönroos syyskuu 8, 2014
- Uusi hajautettu malli hiilidioksidipäästöjen vähentämiseen Helen 17.6.2015
- Modeling and visualization of residential sector energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 81, 15 October 2014, Pages 70-80. Maija K. Mattinen, Juhani Heljo, Jaakko Vihola, Antti Kurvinen, Suvi Lehtoranta, Ari Nissinen. [4]
- An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and material flows caused by the Finnish economy using the ENVIMAT model. Jyri Seppälä, Ilmo Mäenpää, Sirkka Koskela, Tuomas Mattila, Ari Nissinen, Juha-Matti Katajajuuri, Tiina Härmä, Marja-Riitta Korhonen, Merja Saarinen, Yrjö Virtanen doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2011.04.021 [5]
- Journal of Cleaner Production Volume 19, Issue 16, November 2011, Pages 1865–1875. Promoting Transformation towards Sustainable Consumption and Production in a Resource and Energy Intensive Economy - the Case of Finland. Industrial symbiosis and the policy instruments of sustainable consumption and production. Suvi Lehtoranta, Ari Nissinen, Tuomas Mattila, Matti Melanen. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2011.04.002
- Journal of Cleaner Production. Available online 16 September 2014 In Press, Corrected Proof. Combinations of policy instruments to decrease the climate impacts of housing, passenger transport and food in Finland. Ari Nissinen, Eva Heiskanen, Adriaan Perrels, Elina Berghäll, Virpi Liesimaa, Maija K. Mattinen, doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.08.095
- Facebook: Uusi energiapolitiikka
- National Energy and Climate Strategy. Government Report to Parliament on 20 March 2013 [6] [7]
- Open district heating as a new business model
- Stockholm - a new generation of energy networks
- National Energy and Climate Strategy Government Report to Parliament on 20 March 2013
- Helsingin 30 % päästövähennysselvitys Kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen kehitys ja vähentämisen kustannustehokkaat toimenpiteet
- #Climathon A global 24-hour hackathon-style climate change event organised by Climate-KIC has kicked off simultaneously in major cities around the world on 18 June 2015.
- Heleniltä uusi hajautettu malli hiilidioksidipäästöjen vähentämiseen Blogi 17.6.2015
- Helsingin Energian biopolttoaineiden käytön lisääminen, Helsinki YVA 2013
- Population of Finland
- Climate change policies and health in Kuopio DALY weights etc
- Halme et al. 2014 Kasvua ja työllisyyttä uudella energiapolitiikalla
- Domestic energy use map of Britain [http://www.undertheraedar.com/2011/09/energy-consumption-in-london.html Energy consumption in London [8]
- Energiatodistusrekisteri (Helsingistä yli 300 rakennusta)
- Building energy use in New York City
- Niko Wirgentius: Cooling as a part of smart energy system in Stockholm [9]
- Parhaat energiakäytännöt
- HS 17.6.2015: Helsingin kivihiilikasat jäävät historiaan – Hanasaareen uusi asuinalue jo 2020-luvulla
- Erkka Ryynänen, Laura Oja ja Iivo Vehviläinen (Gaia Consulting Oy), Olli-Pekka Pietiläinen, Riina Antikainen ja Pasi Tainio (Suomen ympäristökeskus). Helsingin 30 % päästövähennysselvitys Kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen kehitys ja vähentämisen kustannustehokkaat
toimenpiteet Helsingin kaupungin ympäristökeskuksen julkaisuja 7/2014 [10]←--#: . Kustannus- ja päästövähenemätiedot pitäisi tästä kerätä taulukkoon. --Jouni (talk) 13:29, 19 June 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)
- National Energy and Climate Strategy. Government Report to Parliament on 20 March 2013 [11] [12]
- Energy balance in Kuopio: Data on the amounts of energy produced, consumed, imported, and exported in Kuopio.
- Soininvaara 2010: Helsingin lämmitys
Assessment of small-scale energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area
- Helsingin Energian biopolttoaineiden käytön lisääminen, Helsinki YVA 2013
- Tekniikka ja talous 2015: Yllätyskortti Helsingin energiapelissä.
- Helsingin rakennusvalvonnan ohjeet
- Helsingin 30 % päästövähennysselvitys
Keywords
Energy, renewable energy, nuclear energy, fossil energy, wood pellets, power plants, district heating, decentralised energy production, centralised energy production, cost-effectiveness
References
- ↑ Jump up to: 1.0 1.1 1.2 Halme, Minna; Hukkinen, Janne; Korppi-Tommola, Jouko; Linnanen, Lassi; Liski, Matti; Lovio, Raimo; Lund, Peter; Luukkanen, Jyrki; Nokso-Koivisto, Oskari; Partanen, Jarmo; Wilenius, Markku. Kasvua ja työllisyyttä uudella energiapolitiikalla. Jyväskylän yliopiston julkaisuja 2014. [1]
- ↑ Jáchym Judl, Sirkka Koskela, Timo Korpela, Niko Karvosenoja, Anna Häyrinen, Jari Rantsi. Net environmental impacts of low-share wood pellet co-combustion in an existing coal-fired CHP (combined heat and power) production in Helsinki, Finland. Energy 77 (2014) 844-851. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.068
- ↑ Sanni Väisänen: Greenhouse gas emissions from peat and biomass-derived fuels, electricity and heat — Estimation of various production chains by using LCA methodology
Related files
Assessment of small-scale energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area ←--#: . This contains all Pasi's assessment's data tables and is very useful! --Jouni (talk) 17:05, 14 May 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)