GOHERR assessment

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Scope

Participants

• University of Helsinki: Sakari Kuikka, Päivi Haapasaari, Kirsi Hoviniemi
• National Institute for Health and Welfare: Jouni Tuomisto, Arja Asikainen
• University of Oulu: Timo P. Karjalainen, Simo Sarkki, Mia Pihlajamäki
• SLU: Anna Gårdmark, Jonas
• Alyne Delaney
• Stakeholders needed in the assessment: fisher's associations, agricultural/fisheries ministries in Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Denmark.

Boundaries

• Time considered: 2015 - 2040.
• Area considered: The whole Baltic Sea. For detailed herring/salmon stock modelling, only the Bothnian Sea and Gulf of Bothnia is considered.
• Policies considered: We will build and explore four integrative scenarios for the future of Baltic salmon and herring
• Outcomes considered: threats to and state of the fish stocks; impacts and governance responses

Decisions and scenarios

• Scenarios (possible internally coherent paths in the future) will be developed about 1) eutrophication, 2) dioxin releases, 3) the use of Baltic herring, and 4) salmon policy, by taking into account different political, economic, social, technical, climate change-related etc. circumstances.
  • Scenario for eutrophication
  • Scenario for herring use ----#: . How do we differentiate herring use scenario and herring policies? --Jouni (talk) 06:54, 22 April 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
  • Scenario for salmon policy
  • Scenario for dioxin input to the Baltic Sea
• Salmon management
  • International agreement on fishing quota for salmon
• Herring management
  • Size-selective fishing of herring
• Knowledge actions and fish recommendations
• Agricultural policy
• Dioxin policy
• Etc

Timing

The assessment started in April 2015. The first stakeholder meeting will be in February 2016. The final results with the full decision support tool will be finalised in March 2018.

Answer

The work has just started. There is no answer yet.

Rationale

Goherr causal diagram

Stakeholders

Who will be affected by the decisions?

• Professional fishers and their organisations
• Anglers and other recreational fishers and their organisations
• Land owner fishers and their organisation (they have inherited rights)
• Saami people also have inherited rights (in Sweden only?)
• Food and fish industry.
• Mink and fox farmers
• All people utilising recreational values of the Baltic Sea (relates to eutrophication)
• Farmers and agricultural sector
• Consumers of fish
• Producers of fish oil and fish meal
• Baltic Sea RAC (Regional Advisory Concil) represents fishers (located in Copenhagen)
• Hydropower plant owners

Who will affect the decisions?

• Food safety organisations (EVIRA, Livsmedelsverket, ...)
• Ministries (of agriculture, environment, and commerce)
• EU: DG Mare, EU Parliament?
• SWAM (Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management)

Who are interested in the decisions?

• Scientists
• Environmental NGOs
• Bureaucrats
• ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea)
• Helcom

----#: . Who do we want to invite to the stakeholder workshop and why? --Jouni (talk) 08:34, 22 April 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Purpose of the stakeholder meeting

• Discuss management objectives (values) (for WP3)
• Discuss how to reach those objectives (actions) (for WP3)
• Stakeholders' knowledge needs on scientific information on dioxins (for WP2)
• Stakeholders' views on the current scientific information and how they use it (for WP2)
• WPs' (or assessors') needs for scientific information to perform the assessment
• Understand stakeholders' views and commitment to the different governance types (for WP2) ----#: . Is this for the stakeholder meeting or for the interviews? --Jouni (talk) 08:34, 22 April 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
• Two sessions needed (for WP3)
  • Session to discuss and verify the objectives based on the survey
  • Session to find normative scenarios
• Get a reasonable estimate about herring and salmon consumption in different countries (for WP5)
• Present result in the workshop (by WP4)
• Find out whether size-specific fishing is at all realistic in the eyes of the stakeholders (for WP4, maybe in the second workshop)
• Present and discuss the draft model. Improve the structure based on the comments (for WP6)

First stakeholder meeting:

• In Copenhagen. The second meeting will be in Helsinki.
• Try to get many participants from Denmark and Sweden and pay flights for participants from Finland and Estonia. Maybe someone from Brussels.
• Can it be combined with the RAC meeting?

Terminology

• Normative scenarios: paths you need to take to reach a defined goal
• Expolorative scenarios: identify key uncertainties and dependencies to describe coherent paths into the future.
• Governance types: How things are managed (e.g. top down command or co-management).
• Management action (i.e. decisions)

Dependencies

• Eutrophication: Nutrient load in the Baltic Sea (contains levels of phosphorus and nitrogen in the water in different areas and times)
• Herring fishers' commitment to the fishing restrictions ----#: . What is this exactly? --Jouni (talk) 07:19, 22 April 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
• Herring population in the Baltic Sea by time and area and fish size
• Herring catch in the Baltic Sea by time and area and fish size
• Dioxin concentrations in fish in the Baltic Sea especially herring and salmon, but there is data also about other species
• Salmon population in the Baltic Sea by time and area and fish size
• Salmon catch in the Baltic Sea by time and area and fish size
• Consumers' behavour ----#: . What is this exactly? --Jouni (talk) 07:19, 22 April 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Outcomes of intrest:

• Sustainability of salmon catch ----#: . What is this exactly? --Jouni (talk) 07:19, 22 April 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
• Sustainability of herring catch ----#: . What is this exactly? --Jouni (talk) 07:19, 22 April 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
• Human health (health impacts of healty fish and harmful pollutants, especially dioxin)
• Social utility ----#: . This must be specified! --Jouni (talk) 06:54, 22 April 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

See also

Goherr Research project 2015-2018: Integrated governance of Baltic herring and salmon stocks involving stakeholders

Goherr public website Workpackages WP1 Management · WP2 Sociocultural use, value and goverrnance of Baltic salmon and herring · WP3 Scenarios and management objectives · WP4 Linking fish physiology to food production and bioaccumulation of dioxin · WP5 Linking the health of the Baltic Sea with health of humans: Dioxin · WP6 Building a decision support model for integrated governance · WP7 Dissemination Other pages in Opasnet GOHERR assessment · Goherr flyer · Goherr scenarios · Relevant literature: policy · dioxins · values Data Exposure- response functions of dioxins · Fish consumption in Sweden · POP concentrations in Baltic sea fish · Exposure-response functions of Omega3 fatty acids Methods Health impact assessment · OpasnetBaseUtils‎ · Modelling in Opasnet Other assessments Benefit-risk assessment of Baltic herring · Benefit-risk assessment on farmed salmon · Benefit-risk assessment of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids in fish · Benefit-risk assessment of fish consumption for Beneris · Benefit-risk assessment of Baltic herring (in Finnish) http://www.bonusportal.org/ http://www.bonusprojects.org/bonusprojects