Goherr: WP6 Building a decision support model for integrated governance
Objectives
Holistic decision analysis of Baltic salmon and herring fisheries and management measures aiming at social, biological, and health-related utilities
Description of work, tasks, and role of participants
Based on 1) the analysis of integrated ecosystem-based governance (WP2), 2) biological dynamics between salmon and herring stocks and the link of this to dioxin concentration (WP4), 3) Benefit-risk assessment of previous, current and future fish intake (WP5), 4) Definitions of management aims (WP3), and 5) Future scenarios for the use of Baltic herring and salmon, dioxin input, and eutrophication (WP3), a holistic Bayesian decision support model will be built for the integrated governance of Baltic salmon and herring. The model will be used to analyze the impact of salmon and herring and their management on each other, on the dioxin concentration and on human health under different scenarios, and the impact of the different management options on these. The management options that will be incorporated in the model relate to a) reducing dioxin in salmon and herring, b) sustainable use of salmon and herring, c) reducing eutrophication, d) guiding the consumption of salmon and herring, could benefit the society in terms of reduced dioxin in fish while at the same time ensuring sustainable catches for both species. Importantly, the model will be used to analyse fishers’ commitment to the decision options that relate to fishing.
Moreover, as the core question of the whole project, the decision support tool will be used to analyse the success of different types of governance structures in implementing ecosystem based management, and the consequences of them from the perspective of decisions. Alternatives for the governance structures will be developed in WP2, focusing on policy dynamics and networking between sectoral, regional, national and subnational levels, and stakeholder/consumer interests. It will also be analysed which is the most beneficial governance level to involve stakeholders, if the aim is to enhance fishers’ commitment to management decisions.
The tool enables an integrated risk analysis for examining biological, cultural, and governance-related uncertainties in relation to biological, social and governance-related utilities. A value-of-Information (VOI)analysis will be realized to propose priorities of research for policy, and a value-of-control (VOC) analysis to find out the most beneficial ways to control the system.
Task 6.1 Building the structure of the decision support model (UH, THL, UOULU, SLU) (Month16)
The preliminary model structure for the integrated Bayesian influence diagram will be specified will be built as a scientific desk work, in collaboration with other WPs. It will be presented in the International Workshop No 1, discussed, and modified according to stakeholders’ feedback. Thereby, building the model structure means a problem framing for the whole project, as the stakeholders/experts may highlight issues that in project planning were not taken into account. The model will include 1) uncertain factors related to: salmon and herring dynamics and the use of these fishes in the future, dioxin, eutrophication, fishers’ commitment, consumer values, and governance; 2) social, biological, and human health related aims, and 3) management alternatives to achieve the aims. The structure of the model will be checked and redefined during the research process as needed.
Task 6.2. Populating the conditional probability tables (UH, THL, UOULU, SLU) (Month 34)
The conditional probability tables will be populated using experimental data from the other WPs. In addition, literature, pre-existing simulation models, statistics, and expert knowledge will be used as needed to provide prior probabilities for the variables.
Task 6.3. Analysis of the decision support model (UH) (Month 36)
As one of the final tasks of the project, the decision support tool will be analysed, and the management consequences as well as consequences for future research elaborated. The analysis will inform the governance about the optimal decision combinations, as well as about the optimal type and structure of governance. The completed model including quantitative information will be presented in the International Workshop No2. The analysis will include a Value of Information (VOI) and Value-of-Control (VOC) analysis.
Deliverables (brief description and month of delivery)
D6.1. Integrated decision support model for Baltic herring and salmon (M36). Responsible partner: UH.
D6.2. Report/MS: Integrated multi-species decision support tool to reduce dioxin in Baltic salmon and herring in sustainable fisheries (M36). Responsible partner: UH.
D6.3. Report/MS: Analysis of the utility of different types of governance structures for ecosystem-based management of Baltic salmon and herring (M36). Responsible partner: UH.
See also
