GOHERR assessment

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Scope

Participants

• University of Helsinki: Sakari Kuikka, Päivi Haapasaari, Suvi Ignatius, Kirsi Hoviniemi
• National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL): Jouni Tuomisto, Arja Asikainen
• University of Oulu: Timo P. Karjalainen, Simo Sarkki, Mia Pihlajamäki
• Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU): Anna Gårdmark, Johan Östergren, Magnus Huss, Andreas Bryhn
• University of Aalborg/Innovative Fisheries Management (IFM-AAU): Alyne Delaney, Jesper Raakjaer
• Stakeholders needed in the assessment: fisher's associations, agricultural/fisheries ministries in Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Denmark.

Boundaries

• Time considered: 2015 - 2040.
• Area considered: Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Estonia. For detailed herring/salmon stock modelling, only the Bothnian Sea and Gulf of Bothnia is considered.
• Policies considered: We will build and explore four integrative scenarios for the future of Baltic salmon and herring. See Management of Baltic salmon and herring.
• Outcomes considered: threats to and state of the fish stocks; impacts and governance responses. See Stakeholders' objectives about Baltic salmon and herring.

Decisions and scenarios

See Management of Baltic salmon and herring. A subset that can be modelled is included in this assessment.

Possible management options:

• International agreement on fishing quota for salmon
• Size-selective fishing of herring
• Knowledge actions and fish recommendations
• Agricultural policy
• Dioxin policy
• Etc

Timing

The assessment started in April 2015. The first stakeholder meeting will be in February 2016. The final results with the full decision support tool will be finalised in March 2018.

Answer

The work has just started. There is no answer yet.

Rationale

Goherr causal diagram

Stakeholders

Who will be affected by the decisions?

• Professional fishers and their organisations
• Anglers and other recreational fishers and their organisations
• Land owner fishers and their organisation (they have inherited rights)
• Saami people also have inherited rights (in Sweden only?)
• Food and fish industry.
• Mink and fox farmers
• All people utilising recreational values of the Baltic Sea (relates to eutrophication)
• Farmers and agricultural sector
• Consumers of fish
• Producers of fish oil and fish meal
• Baltic Sea RAC (Regional Advisory Concil) represents fishers (located in Copenhagen)
• Hydropower plant owners

Who will affect the decisions?

• Food safety organisations (EVIRA, Livsmedelsverket, ...)
• Ministries (of agriculture, environment, and commerce)
• EU: DG Mare, EU Parliament?
• SWAM (Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management)

Who are interested in the decisions?

• Scientists
• Environmental NGOs
• Bureaucrats
• ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea)
• Helcom

Dependencies

Products from workpackages to other workpackages

From	To	Deadline	Page	Topic
WP2	WP3		Stakeholders' objectives about Baltic salmon and herring	Stakeholder values and objectives
WP2, WP3	WP6	2016-01-31	Governance types about the Baltic Sea	Alternative governance types
WP2	WP6		Salmon and herring fishers' commitment to the fishing restrictions Fraction of a regulation actually implemented?	Applicability of planned management options in practice
WP3	WP6		Management paths to the objectives about Baltic salmon and herring	Normative scenarios (paths that must be taken to reach an objective)
WP3	WP6		Management of Baltic salmon and herring	Management options (decisions)
WP3	WP4		Dioxin emissions into the Baltic Sea	Trends of dioxin deposition into the Baltic Sea
WP3	WP4		Eutrophication: Cholorophyll A in the Baltic Sea (indicator of phosphorus and nitrogen in the water in different areas and times) ----#: . How is this actually used? --Jouni (talk) 11:26, 22 April 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)	Trends of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea
WP3	WP5	2017-10-31	Baltic herring consumption in Finland Salmon and herring consumption around the Baltic Sea	Trends of fish consumption
WP4	WP5	2017-10-31	Salmon and herring populations in the Baltic Sea Salmon and herring catch in the Baltic Sea by time and area and fish size	Predicted salmon and herring stocks by time, area, and size
WP4	WP3, WP5	2017-10-31	EU-kalat This page is a study about Finnish measurements Dioxin concentrations in fish in the Baltic Sea this is a variable page based on e.g. EU-kalat data and Goherr project results.	Bioaccumulation of dioxins in fish and potential of fishing to change that
WP5	WP6	2017-12-31	Health benefits and risks of Baltic herring and salmon	Health benefits and risks of Baltic herring and salmon
WP5	WP3, WP6	2017-04-30	Reactions of people to fish eating recommendations	People's willingness to change consumption patterns based on risk
WP5	WP6	2017-04-30	Determinants of fish-eating habits around the Baltic Sea	Determinants of fish-eating habits

----#: . Add your suggestions about deadlines! --Jouni (talk) 15:32, 22 April 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

• WP2 Socio-cultural values and governance
• WP3 Scenarios and management
• WP4 Fish stock
• WP5 Health impacts
• WP6 Decision support model

See also

Goherr Research project 2015-2018: Integrated governance of Baltic herring and salmon stocks involving stakeholders

Goherr public website Workpackages WP1 Management · WP2 Sociocultural use, value and goverrnance of Baltic salmon and herring · WP3 Scenarios and management objectives · WP4 Linking fish physiology to food production and bioaccumulation of dioxin · WP5 Linking the health of the Baltic Sea with health of humans: Dioxin · WP6 Building a decision support model for integrated governance · WP7 Dissemination Other pages in Opasnet GOHERR assessment · Goherr flyer · Goherr scenarios · Relevant literature: policy · dioxins · values Data Exposure- response functions of dioxins · Fish consumption in Sweden · POP concentrations in Baltic sea fish · Exposure-response functions of Omega3 fatty acids Methods Health impact assessment · OpasnetBaseUtils‎ · Modelling in Opasnet Other assessments Benefit-risk assessment of Baltic herring · Benefit-risk assessment on farmed salmon · Benefit-risk assessment of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids in fish · Benefit-risk assessment of fish consumption for Beneris · Benefit-risk assessment of Baltic herring (in Finnish) http://www.bonusportal.org/ http://www.bonusprojects.org/bonusprojects

Keywords

Terminology

Normative scenarios

paths you need to take to reach a defined goal

Expolorative scenarios

identify key uncertainties and dependencies to describe coherent paths into the future.

Governance types

How things are managed (e.g. top down command or co-management).

Management action

Actions to be taken based on decision-maker's decision (i.e. decisions)

References

Assmuth Timo and Jalonen Pauliina 2005: Risks and management of dioxin-like compounds in Baltic Sea fish: An integrated assessment. Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen. Assmuth Jalonen Dioxin risk assessment 2005 [1]