Helsinki energy decision 2015

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Scope

Question

What options does Helsinki have for main energy solutions, and which options are good or bad in terms of

• climate mitigation,
• stability (fuel availability etc),
• cost to the city and citizens,
• environment,
• biofuel use,
• national energy balance,
• domestic source,
• health?

Intended use and users

Helsinki City Council will make a major decision in autumn 2015 about renovating old power plants, building a new one, or some other option replacing the need of the old power plants. Therefore, the City Council is the major user of the assessment. There are also secondary uses, such as informing national energy discussion and demonstrating the usefulness of an open combined energy balance and building model.

Participants

The work is coordinated by Jouni Tuomisto from THL / Impact Assessment Unit. Their motivation is to assess the environmental health aspects of the decision. Participants that we hope get involved when they are informed about the assessment include (not in any particular order)

• THL: Jouni, Pauli, Teemu, Matleena, Julia, Olli
• the City of Helsinki,
• Helen energy company,
• Jorma Jokiniemi (expert in emission factors from UEF),
• Osmo Soininvaara (politician, economist from Helsinki),
• Peter Lund (energy expert from Aalto University),
• Niko Karvosenoja (air emission expert from SYKE),
• Sanna Syri (energy expert from SYKE),
• Sanni Väisänen (expert in greenhouse gas emission factors).
• Matti Jantunen (expert in environmental health, exposure, and energy)
• Satu Taavitsainen, parliamentarist, chairman of Mikkeli city council [2]
• Maria Kopsakangas-Savolainen (energy costs and pricing, SYKE [3])

Boundaries

• Time: 2015 - 2060
• Energy need estimated for Helsinki.
• Main focus is on local heat and power need. Energy balance estimated for Helsinki (electricity nationally).
• Health impacts estimated for the regional area (ca. 300 km radius)
• Impacts are assessed separately for the citizen, the city, Helen energy company, and Finland.
• Transport is not looked at although it is an important energy consumer. This is because there is no interaction with heating except via city structure, and there are no resources to look at that in this assessment. Electric cars would have an interaction with electricity production, but that applies to the total electricity market area (Finland, partly Scandinavia) and is too complex to look at.

Decisions and scenarios

Main article: Helsinki energy decision options 2015

The two options in the official decision preparation are Hanasaari shutdown and Vuosaari, and Hanasaari 40 bio and Salmisaari 40 bio. However, also other options have been suggested, and also they are evaluated at least superficially.

1. BAU: Only small, essential renovations are made to current power plants to stay within new emission limits.
2. Vuosaari: A new power plant is built in Vuosaari with the capacity to burn 100 % wood-based fuel or any combination of wood-based fuels and coal.
3. Hanasaari shutdown: The Hanasaari powerplant is shut down, demolished and apartment buildings are built in its place.
4. Hanasaari 40 bio: The Hanasaari power plant is renovated to burn 40% wood-based fuels and 60% coal.
5. Salmisaari 40 bio: The Salmisaari power plants are renovated to burn 40% wood-based fuels and 60% coal.
6. Biofueled heat production units: Salmisaari oilfueled heat plant is shut down and new biofuel burning heat plants are built in Salmisaari and Vuorsaari.
7. Loviisa nuclear CHP: A third nuclear power plant is built in Loviisa and the heat is used for district heating in Helsinki.
8. Neste excess heat: The excess heat from the Neste's oil refinery in Porvoo is used for district heating in Helsinki.
9. Decentralised energy production: The amount of decentralised energy production is increased as much as possible. Practically this means building a lot more solar panels, geothermal power, small-scale wood burning and wind mills around Helsinki.
10. Large heat pumps: Big heat pumps are installed to draw heat from the Baltic sea or deep from the ground to produce district heating.
11. Energy saving: With huge energy saving campaigns and by renovating buildings to be more energy efficient the amount of required energy is decreased significantly.

Timing

The assessment started in May 2015. First draft results are expected before midsummer 2015. Final results should be available well before the City Council makes the decision in autumn, which means that results should exist by September 15th, 2015.

Rationale

Causal diagram for the assessment.

Politics is not about getting your mind. It is about learning about good and bad actions based on values. Negotiations are useful only when you know which actions promote your values.

Costs of fuel. Costs on energy type in general. Predict fuel prices into the future and adjust. How do you minimize a matrix? Run lots of iterations and select from oosterior distribution?

Stakeholders

The impacts are assessed and valued from the point of view of the following stakeholders:

• The city of Helsinki
• Helen Oy energy company
• A citizen of Helsinki
• Finland
• Global view

Dependencies

List of pages used in model:

• Helsinki energy decision 2015: Main page of assessment.
• Helsinki energy decision options 2015: More detailed information on the different options available.
• Climate change policies in Helsinki: Related assessment on reducing GHG emissions in Helsinki.
• Climate change policies and health in Kuopio: Related assessment on reducing GHG emissions in Kuopio.
• Burden of disease in Finland: Data on disease burden.
• Exposure-response function: Description of ERF, a mathematical construct used to describe a probability of different responses to a given exposure.
• ERFs of environmental pollutants: Data on the exposure-response function of several environmental pollutants that do not have their own pages.
• ERF of several environmental pollutions: ^^^
• ERF of omega-3 fatty acids: Data on the exposure-response function of omega-3 fatty acids.
• ERF of methylmercury: Data on the exposure-response function of methylmercury (MeHg).
• ERF of dioxin: Data on the exposure-response function of dioxins.
• Exposures in Finland: Data on the typical exposure levels of common pollutants in Finland.
• Health impact assessment: Method of estimating the health impacts of a particular event or policy.
• Disease risk: Data on the incidence or prevalence rates of different diseases in Finland.
• Population attributable fraction: Method of calculating the fraction of disease that would disappear if the exposure to that agent would disappear.
• Population of Helsinki metropolitan area: Data on the total population of Helsinki metropolitan area.
• Intake fractions of PM: Data on the intake fractions of airborne particulate matter for different emission sources and locations.
• Exposure to PM2.5 in Finland: Method of estimating exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) in the Finnish population.
• Building model: Method of estimating the size of the building stock of a city, including heating properties and renovations.
• Building stock in Helsinki: Data on the building stock in Helsinki and its projected future.
• Energy use of buildings: Data on the energy consumption of buildings in Finland.
• Energy balance in Helsinki: Data on the amounts of energy produced, consumed, imported, and exported in Helsinki.
• Energy balance in Kuopio: Data on the amounts of energy produced, consumed, imported, and exported in Kuopio.
• Energy balance: Method of calculating energy balance.
• Helsinki energy production: Data on the energy production in Helsinki.
• Emission factors for burning processes: Data on the emission factors for burning processes in Finland.
• Emission assessment of small-scale energy production in the Helsinki metropolitan area: Assessment evaluating the greenhouse gas emissions and emission trading costs of small-scale (output less than 50 MW) energy production in the Helsinki metropolitan area.
• OpasnetUtils/Drafts

Other data that we need to check where it goes.

• Soininvaara 2010: Helsingin lämmitys
• Assessment of small-scale energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area
• Helsingin Energian biopolttoaineiden käytön lisääminen, Helsinki YVA 2013
• Tekniikka ja talous 2015: Yllätyskortti Helsingin energiapelissä.
• Helsingin rakennusvalvonnan ohjeet

Variables in the assessment model

[show]Variable	Measure	Indices
buildings (from the Building model)
stockBuildings From statistics data in OB	Building stock in floor-m2 at given timepoints: Stock details in Opasnet Base	Time (Valmistusmisaika), City_area (Sijainti), Building (Käyttötarkoitus), Heating (Lämmitystapa, Polttoaine), Efficiency (Varusteena koneellinen ilmanvaihto, Perusparannus)
heatingShares = 1 Building stock in Helsinki	Fractions of heating types. Should sum up to 1 within each group defined by optional indices. Data is already in stockBuildings, so we use 1 here.	Heating, Time, Building
efficiencyShares Energy efficiency of new buildings in the future. OpasnetBase	Fraction of energy efficiency types of new buildings in the future. Should sum up to 1 for each group defined by other indices. Fractions of heating and energy efficiency: from Facta data and Energiatodistusrekisteri This can be used to derive energy classes and the U values for buildings in Helsinki.	Efficiency, Time, Building.
changeBuildings = stockBuildings * 0.02 /a	Construction or demolition rate as floor-m2 at given timepoints. Implemented in code.	Time, Efficiency, Heating. changeBuildings should have all indices in stockBuildings, heatingShares, and efficiencyShares.
renovationShares Guesstimate data in OB	Fraction of renovation types when renovation is done. Should sum to 1 for each group defined by other indices.	Renovation, Startyear. Startyear is the time when the renovation is done, and it must be different than the Time index.
renovationRate Guesstimate data in OB	Rate of renovation (fraction per time unit).	Age (the time difference between construction and renovation, i.e. Startyear - Time for each building).
obstime Ten-year intervals 1980 - 2060.	one-column data.frame about the years to be used in output.	Startyear
heating_before = FALSE	If TRUE, heatingShares contains data and is added to buildings before obstime.
efficiency_before = TRUE	If TRUE, efficiencyShares contains data and is added to buildings before obstime.
heatingEnergy: Energy consumption from the Building model ←--#: . Move code to Heating consumption of buildings --Jouni (talk) 03:48, 9 June 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)
energyUse Baseline energy consumption [4] ←--#: . Update this to use U values and ambient temperatures. --Jouni (talk) 12:22, 24 May 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence) Also use Building stock in Helsinki, Table 6.	Energy consumption per floor area (kWh / m2 /a) (U: W/m2/K * T: K * Area: m2)	Building, Heating.
efficiencyRatio Energy use of buildings#Energy efficiency in heating) Opasnet Base	Relative energy consumption compared with the efficiency group Old.	Efficiency.
renovationRatio Impact of renovations Opasnet Base	Relative energy consumption compared with the Renovation location None.	Renovation.
energyBalance Energy balance in Helsinki
heatingEnergy (see above)
consumerElectricity: from Baseline energy consumption Opasnet Base based on floor area	Amount of consumer electricity use (MW) calculated based on either amount of people or floor-m2	Hour (time of day), others?
otherEnergy Helsinki energy consumption	Other energy consumption (industry, transport, other): from statistics of Helsinki Helsingin ympäristötilasto. Thermal energy need in Helsinki Metropolitan Area	Time
windElectricity Check about possibilities and Wind pattern Tuuliatlas about useful wind mill sites in Helsinki.	Amount of wind power produced (MW) by wind type. We also need amounts of hours with different wind patterns per year.	Hour (do we need this, is wind power production dependent on time of day?), Weather (temperature and weather types), maybe Wind (Windy, Normal, Calm)
solarElectricity	Amount of solar energy produced (MW) in certain conditions. Data source?	Hour, Month, Weather, maybe Sun (Sunny, Cloudy, Dark) ----#: . Have to decide which of these is used. --Jouni (talk) 17:27, 24 May 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
airpumpHeat	This means air-driven heat pumps installed in individual homes and run based on ambient temperature. The efficiency of air heat pump reduces with very cold weather. We assume that the heat pump will be used for cooling as well, if it is installed. (We assume that cooling is not used in apartments without heat pump; cooling is otherwise only used in offices etc).	Weather, Hour, maybe Temperature. ----#: . Should we have index for day/night so that daily storage of heat/cool can be assessed? --Jouni (talk) 17:27, 24 May 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
energyProduction Helsinki energy production	Energy production based on need: basically, we need to know a) what power plants exist, b) what fuels they use and what (heat, power or both) they produce, c) what emissions they produce, d) what is their maximum capacity, e) at what demand level are they turned on. District heating production units in Helsinki metropolitan area Geothermal heat pumps: this means both individual geothermal heat pumps and district heat pumps for heating and cooling, such as the one in Katri Vala's park. Its efficiency is not reduced with very cold weather. See District cooling by Helen, en:Absorption refrigerator, en:District cooling.
emissions (from the model) (emissions in mass per time) Emissions of energy production (ton/a). Emission assessment of small-scale energy production in the Helsinki metropolitan area
energyBalance (from the model; see above)
fuelShares Energy balance in Helsinki	Tells how much of fuel is used for a certain neating energy need. ----#: . Should this be on page Energy balance in Helsinki or, like in Kuopio and Basel, a separate table? --Jouni (talk) 17:27, 24 May 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment) ----#: . Use shares of different fuels. Currently this data is on page Emission factors for burning processes Table Fuel use in different heating types. However, this is clearly case-specific data and should be on a case-specific page. This should be done retrospectively to Kuopio and Basel as well. --Jouni (talk) 12:22, 24 May 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)	Fuel_type.
emissionFactors Emission factors for burning processes	emissions per unit of energy produced (g / J or similar unit)	Exposure_agent, Emission_height.
exposure is in ug/m3 in ambient air average concentration. Exposure to PM2.5 in Finland
emissions	(from the model; see above) is in ton /a	Time, City_area, Exposure_agent, Emission_height.
iF (generic data but depends on population density, emission height etc) Intake fractions of PM.	conc (g /m3) * pop (#) * BR (m3 /s) / emis (g /s) <=> conc = emis * iF / BR / pop # conc is the exposure ⇤--#: . This is NOT the right page, but there are some pages such as Exposure to PM2.5 in Finland that should be merged. --Jouni (talk) 15:45, 17 May 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: attack) ⇤--#: . Rather use iFs based on Piltti? --Jouni (talk) 12:22, 24 May 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: attack) Fate and dispersion: is embedded in intake fractions and is not separately needed. Rename? Time use and activity: not explicitly needed? Remove? With transport it would make a difference.	Emission_height, Pollutant, Area
population Population of Helsinki metropolitan area	Amount of population exposed. Data from Statistics Finland?	Time, Area, Age, Sex
ambientTemperature: Weather in Helsinki (also contains solar radiation and wind patterns)	Ambient temperatures. ----#: . We actually need hourly temperatures. How do we manage this in the model? Temperatures should match indices Sun, Wind, Hour, and Month. --Jouni (talk) 17:27, 24 May 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
Health impact assessment
exposure (see above)
Disease risk	Incidences of diseases of interest. ----#: . What if prevalence values would be more useful? --Jouni (talk) 17:27, 24 May 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)	Age, Sex, Response
ERF Exposure-response function	Exposure-response functions of all relevant exposure agents
Burden of disease in Finland
Other human health effects, indoor environment, and well-being is not probably handled here? Remove or keep as an important placeholder?
Costs: Where do we get this? From Vuosaari YVA? From ?	Costs of activities (energy production mainly) but also health impacts.	Time

Analyses

• Cost-benefit analysis of different options. Costs considered: capital and operational costs of energy production, climate costs (CO2e emissions converted to euros), health (DALYs converted to euros).
• Total capacity availability and feasibility (applies especially to decentralised option).
• Temporal heat and power demand and supply (hourly resolution).

Indices

• Temporal: Month (non-marginal), Hour (non-marginal), Year (2015, 2025, 2040, 2060)
• Temperature (Very cold (< -20 C), Cold (-20- -5 C), Cool (-5 - 5 C), Mild (5 - 14 C), Warm (15 - 23 C; neither heating nor cooling need in residences), Hot (> 24 C; cooling need)
• Decisions (options 1-7)
• Stakeholder (Citizen, City, Helen, Finland)
• Spatial: City area (summed up after energy need)
• Health: Disease (any disease that is linked to Exposure agents emitted)
• Emission, exposure: Exposure agent (any agent that is emitted by energy production)
• Energy production: Burner, Fuel, Heating.
• Buildings: Building [use type], Heating, Constructed, City area, Renovation, Efficiency.

See also

• Helsingin Energian biopolttoaineiden käytön lisääminen, Helsinki YVA 2013
• Population of Finland
• Climate change policies and health in Kuopio DALY weights etc
• Halme et al. 2014 Kasvua ja työllisyyttä uudella energiapolitiikalla
• Domestic energy use map of Britain [http://www.undertheraedar.com/2011/09/energy-consumption-in-london.html Energy consumption in London [5]
• Energiatodistusrekisteri (Helsingistä yli 300 rakennusta)
• Building energy use in New York City

Things to memorize

Units needed:

• Work, energy, työ: joule J = Nm. 1 J = work needed to move an object by 1 m using a force of 1 N.
  • 1 kWh kilowatt-hour = 1000 W * 1 hour = 1000 W * 3600 s = 3.6 MJ
• Force, voima: Newton N. E.g. the gravity force of 1 kg object is 9.8 N
• Power, teho: J/s = W (watt) Note that power also means electricity.

Useful pieces of data.

• To heat 1 kg of water from 0 to 100 C takes 420 kJ = 0.42 MJ = 0.12 kWh.
• To boil 1 kg of water to vapor takes 2300 kJ = 2.3 MJ
• Coal contains ca. 40 MJ/kg
• Wood contains ca. 17 MJ/kg
• Wood chips contain ca 7 MJ/kg (because of moisture)
• Fine particles kill 1800 people/a in Finland.
• When you burn 1 kg of coal, you get 3.7 kg of CO2.
• A typical industial-size wind mill produces max 3 MW of electricity
• A large power-plant produces 200-1500 MW of electricity.

Prefixes:

• µ micro 10^-6 0.000001
• m milli 10^-3 0.001
• 1
• k kilo 10³ 1000
• M mega 10⁶ 1000000
• G giga 10⁹ 1000000000
• T tera 10¹² 1000000000000
• P peta 10¹⁵ 1000000000000000

Keywords

Energy, renewable energy, nuclear energy, fossil energy, wood pellets, power plants, district heating, decentralised energy production, centralised energy production, cost-effectiveness

Related files

• Assessment of small-scale energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area ←--#: . This contains all Pasi's assessment's data tables and is very useful! --Jouni (talk) 17:05, 14 May 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)