GOHERR assessment: Difference between revisions

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* Time considered: 2015 - 2040.
* Time considered: 2015 - 2040.
* Area considered: The whole Baltic Sea. For detailed herring/salmon stock modelling, only the Bothnian Sea and Gulf of Bothnia is considered.
* Area considered: Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Estonia. For detailed herring/salmon stock modelling, only the Bothnian Sea and Gulf of Bothnia is considered.
* Policies considered: We will build and explore four integrative scenarios for the future of Baltic salmon and herring
* Policies considered: We will build and explore four integrative scenarios for the future of Baltic salmon and herring. See [[Management of Baltic salmon and herring]].
* Outcomes considered: threats to and state of the fish stocks; impacts and governance responses
* Outcomes considered: threats to and state of the fish stocks; impacts and governance responses. See [[Stakeholders' objectives about Baltic salmon and herring]].


=== Decisions and scenarios ===
=== Decisions and scenarios ===


* Scenarios (possible internally coherent paths in the future) will be developed about 1) eutrophication, 2) dioxin releases, 3) the use of Baltic herring, and 4) salmon policy, by taking into account different political, economic, social, technical, climate change-related etc. circumstances.
See [[Management of Baltic salmon and herring]]. A subset that can be modelled is included in this assessment.
** Scenario for eutrophication
 
** Scenario for herring use {{comment|# |How do we differentiate herring use scenario and herring policies?|--[[User:Jouni|Jouni]] ([[User talk:Jouni|talk]]) 06:54, 22 April 2015 (UTC)}}
Possible management options:
** Scenario for salmon policy
* International agreement on fishing quota for salmon
** Scenario for dioxin input to the Baltic Sea
* Size-selective fishing of herring
* Salmon management
** International agreement on fishing quota for salmon
* Herring management
** Size-selective fishing of herring
* Knowledge actions and fish recommendations
* Knowledge actions and fish recommendations
* Agricultural policy
* Agricultural policy
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* ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea)
* ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea)
* Helcom
* Helcom
{{#l:Potential stakeholders_Participant list CCB Salmon Seminar in Älvkarleby.docx}}
{{comment|# |Who do we want to invite to the stakeholder workshop and why?|--[[User:Jouni|Jouni]] ([[User talk:Jouni|talk]]) 08:34, 22 April 2015 (UTC)}}
Purpose of the stakeholder meeting
* Discuss management objectives (values) (for WP3)
* Discuss how to reach those objectives (actions) (for WP3)
* Stakeholders' knowledge needs on scientific information on dioxins  (for WP2)
* Stakeholders' views on the current scientific information and how they use it (for WP2)
* WPs' (or assessors') needs for scientific information to perform the assessment
* Understand stakeholders' views and commitment to the different governance types (for WP2) {{comment|# |Is this for the stakeholder meeting or for the interviews?|--[[User:Jouni|Jouni]] ([[User talk:Jouni|talk]]) 08:34, 22 April 2015 (UTC)}}
* Two sessions needed (for WP3)
** Session to discuss and verify the objectives based on the survey
** Session to find normative scenarios
* Get a reasonable estimate about herring and salmon consumption in different countries (for WP5)
* Present result in the workshop (by WP4)
* Find out whether size-specific fishing is at all realistic in the eyes of the stakeholders (for WP4, maybe in the second workshop)
* Present and discuss the draft model. Improve the structure based on the comments (for WP6)
First stakeholder meeting:
* In Copenhagen. The second meeting will be in Helsinki.
* Try to get many participants from Denmark and Sweden and pay flights for participants from Finland and Estonia. Maybe someone from Brussels.
* Can it be combined with the RAC meeting?
Terminology
* Normative scenarios: paths you need to take to reach a defined goal
* Expolorative scenarios: identify key uncertainties and dependencies to describe coherent paths into the future.
* Governance types: How things are managed (e.g. top down command or co-management).
* Management action (i.e. decisions)


=== Dependencies ===
=== Dependencies ===
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== Keywords ==
== Keywords ==
Terminology
; Normative scenarios: paths you need to take to reach a defined goal
; Expolorative scenarios: identify key uncertainties and dependencies to describe coherent paths into the future.
; Governance types: How things are managed (e.g. top down command or co-management).
; Management action: Actions to be taken based on decision-maker's decision (i.e. decisions)


== References ==
== References ==
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<references/>
<references/>


Assmuth Timo and Jalonen Pauliina 2005: Risks and management of dioxin-like compounds in Baltic Sea fish: An integrated assessment. Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen.
Assmuth Timo and Jalonen Pauliina 2005: Risks and management of dioxin-like compounds in Baltic Sea fish: An integrated assessment. Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen. {{#l:Assmuth Jalonen Dioxin risk assessment 2005.pdf}} [http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:700892/FULLTEXT01.pdf]


== Related files ==
== Related files ==

Revision as of 15:57, 22 April 2015



Scope

Question

Intended use and users

Participants

  • University of Helsinki: Sakari Kuikka, Päivi Haapasaari, Kirsi Hoviniemi
  • National Institute for Health and Welfare: Jouni Tuomisto, Arja Asikainen
  • University of Oulu: Timo P. Karjalainen, Simo Sarkki, Mia Pihlajamäki
  • SLU: Anna Gårdmark, Jonas
  • Alyne Delaney
  • Stakeholders needed in the assessment: fisher's associations, agricultural/fisheries ministries in Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Denmark.

Boundaries

  • Time considered: 2015 - 2040.
  • Area considered: Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Estonia. For detailed herring/salmon stock modelling, only the Bothnian Sea and Gulf of Bothnia is considered.
  • Policies considered: We will build and explore four integrative scenarios for the future of Baltic salmon and herring. See Management of Baltic salmon and herring.
  • Outcomes considered: threats to and state of the fish stocks; impacts and governance responses. See Stakeholders' objectives about Baltic salmon and herring.

Decisions and scenarios

See Management of Baltic salmon and herring. A subset that can be modelled is included in this assessment.

Possible management options:

  • International agreement on fishing quota for salmon
  • Size-selective fishing of herring
  • Knowledge actions and fish recommendations
  • Agricultural policy
  • Dioxin policy
  • Etc

Timing

The assessment started in April 2015. The first stakeholder meeting will be in February 2016. The final results with the full decision support tool will be finalised in March 2018.

Answer

The work has just started. There is no answer yet.

Results

Conclusions

Rationale

Goherr causal diagram

Stakeholders

Who will be affected by the decisions?

  • Professional fishers and their organisations
  • Anglers and other recreational fishers and their organisations
  • Land owner fishers and their organisation (they have inherited rights)
  • Saami people also have inherited rights (in Sweden only?)
  • Food and fish industry.
  • Mink and fox farmers
  • All people utilising recreational values of the Baltic Sea (relates to eutrophication)
  • Farmers and agricultural sector
  • Consumers of fish
  • Producers of fish oil and fish meal
  • Baltic Sea RAC (Regional Advisory Concil) represents fishers (located in Copenhagen)
  • Hydropower plant owners

Who will affect the decisions?

  • Food safety organisations (EVIRA, Livsmedelsverket, ...)
  • Ministries (of agriculture, environment, and commerce)
  • EU: DG Mare, EU Parliament?
  • SWAM (Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management)

Who are interested in the decisions?

  • Scientists
  • Environmental NGOs
  • Bureaucrats
  • ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea)
  • Helcom

Dependencies

Products from workpackages to other workpackages
From To Deadline Page Topic
WP2 WP3 Stakeholders' objectives about Baltic salmon and herring Stakeholder values and objectives
WP2, WP3 WP6 2016-01-31 Governance types about the Baltic Sea Alternative governance types
WP2 WP6 Salmon and herring fishers' commitment to the fishing restrictions Fraction of a regulation actually implemented? Applicability of planned management options in practice
WP3 WP6 Management paths to the objectives about Baltic salmon and herring Normative scenarios (paths that must be taken to reach an objective)
WP3 WP6 Management of Baltic salmon and herring Management options (decisions)
WP3 WP4 Dioxin emissions into the Baltic Sea Trends of dioxin deposition into the Baltic Sea
WP3 WP4 Eutrophication: Cholorophyll A in the Baltic Sea (indicator of phosphorus and nitrogen in the water in different areas and times) ----#: . How is this actually used? --Jouni (talk) 11:26, 22 April 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment) Trends of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea
WP3 WP5 2017-10-31 Baltic herring consumption in Finland Salmon and herring consumption around the Baltic Sea Trends of fish consumption
WP4 WP5 2017-10-31 Salmon and herring populations in the Baltic Sea Salmon and herring catch in the Baltic Sea by time and area and fish size Predicted salmon and herring stocks by time, area, and size
WP4 WP3, WP5 2017-10-31 EU-kalat This page is a study about Finnish measurements Dioxin concentrations in fish in the Baltic Sea this is a variable page based on e.g. EU-kalat data and Goherr project results. Bioaccumulation of dioxins in fish and potential of fishing to change that
WP5 WP6 2017-12-31 Health benefits and risks of Baltic herring and salmon Health benefits and risks of Baltic herring and salmon
WP5 WP3, WP6 2017-04-30 Reactions of people to fish eating recommendations People's willingness to change consumption patterns based on risk
WP5 WP6 2017-04-30 Determinants of fish-eating habits around the Baltic Sea Determinants of fish-eating habits

----#: . Add your suggestions about deadlines! --Jouni (talk) 15:32, 22 April 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Analyses

Indices

Calculations

See also

Goherr Research project 2015-2018: Integrated governance of Baltic herring and salmon stocks involving stakeholders

Goherr public website

Workpackages

WP1 Management · WP2 Sociocultural use, value and goverrnance of Baltic salmon and herring · WP3 Scenarios and management objectives · WP4 Linking fish physiology to food production and bioaccumulation of dioxin · WP5 Linking the health of the Baltic Sea with health of humans: Dioxin · WP6 Building a decision support model for integrated governance · WP7 Dissemination

Other pages in Opasnet

GOHERR assessment · Goherr flyer · Goherr scenarios · Relevant literature: policy · dioxins · values

Data

Exposure- response functions of dioxins · Fish consumption in Sweden · POP concentrations in Baltic sea fish · Exposure-response functions of Omega3 fatty acids

Methods Health impact assessment · OpasnetBaseUtils‎ · Modelling in Opasnet
Other assessments Benefit-risk assessment of Baltic herring · Benefit-risk assessment on farmed salmon · Benefit-risk assessment of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids in fish · Benefit-risk assessment of fish consumption for Beneris · Benefit-risk assessment of Baltic herring (in Finnish)

http://www.bonusportal.org/ http://www.bonusprojects.org/bonusprojects

Keywords

Terminology

Normative scenarios
paths you need to take to reach a defined goal
Expolorative scenarios
identify key uncertainties and dependencies to describe coherent paths into the future.
Governance types
How things are managed (e.g. top down command or co-management).
Management action
Actions to be taken based on decision-maker's decision (i.e. decisions)

References


Assmuth Timo and Jalonen Pauliina 2005: Risks and management of dioxin-like compounds in Baltic Sea fish: An integrated assessment. Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen. Assmuth Jalonen Dioxin risk assessment 2005 [1]

Related files

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