CLAIH assessment: Difference between revisions

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Climate change, air quality and housing – future challenges to public health (CLAIH)

CLAIH analytica model

Scope

Purpose

The purpose of the assessment is to evaluate the health impacts and costs in Finland in the future if different housing policies are undertaken.

More specifically:

What would be the health effects and costs in Finland in 2030 if the society preferred different household heating systems, building energy efficiency solutions and fuels for district heat production?

How would the health effects from housing compared to health effects from other sources of PM2.5, e.g. traffic?

What would be the optimal combination of household heating systems, building energy efficiency and fuels for district heating?

What would be the amount of societal subsidies needed to ensure the transition to the preferred heating systems and energy efficiency in housing?

Preference of different decisions on household heating and energy efficiency is assessed from the perspective of a household. Total health impacts and societal costs of different decision options are assessed for the whole of Finland, and the optimal distribution of societal subsidies for different heating systems and energy efficiency are evaluated based on these.

Boundaries

Population: Finland
Assessment time frame: 2010-2030
Evaluated activity: heat production and consumption in household building stock (detached houses, row houses, apartment buildings)
Evaluated exposures:
- Fine particles (PM2.5)
  - Outdoor concentrations
  - Indoor concentrations from domestic wood combustion
  - Personal exposure
- Indoor dampness and mold
- Indoor Radon
- Indoor air temperatures?
Evaluated health impacts:
- Mortality and morbidity due to long term exposure to PM2.5
- Asthma incidence due to long term exposure to PM2.5
- Asthma due to indoor mold and dampness
- Lung cancer due to indoor radon
Other evaluated emissions: CO2
Evaluated costs:
- Costs fron health impacts
- Costs from building stock heat production and consumption
- Costs from building stock heating system/energy efficiency renovations
- Costs from energy infrastructure changes (District heat production development)
- Costs from CO2 emissions
Decisions to be evaluated relate to:
- Fuel options for district heating (for both large existing CHP plants and small scale district heat production)
- Form of district heat production (should there be more small scale district heat production?)
- Household heating system options
- Building energy efficiency improvement options
- Building air filtering

Underlying scenarios

Climate change (temperature) scenarios based on IPCC
- A2 (heterogeneous world, rising population, slow technological change)
- A1B (rapid growth of world economy and population, advent new and more efficient technologies, balanced use of fossil and renewable energy sources)
- B1 (rapid development towards environmentally friendly technologies)
Greenhouse gas emission reduction scenarios
- Climate change mitigation in housing

Intended users

Ministry of Employment and the Economy
Ministry of Social Affairs and Health
Ministry of the Environment
Any interested party

Participants

FMI
University of Oulu
THL
Anyone interested

Definition

Decisions to be evaluated

Society:

Fuel for district heat production (natural gas, coal, wood, peat, oil, geothermal heat)
Form of district heat production (should there be more small scale district heat production?)
Subsidies for household heating system/energy efficiency renovations
Demands/subsidies for new building stock heating systems/energy efficiency
Demands/subsidies for building air filters

Citizen:

Household heating system renovations
Building energy efficiency renovations

Building stock development

Building heat consumption

Emissions

Exposure and exposure-response functions

PM2.5

Outdoor air concentration

PM2.5 concentration in Finland

Indoor air concentration

Personal exposure

Exposure to PM2.5 in Finland

ERFs

Indoor dampness and mold

Indoor radon

Heat

Health impacts

Health impact indicators

Calculated for all exposures:

Attributable mortality and morbidity
Loss of disability adjusted life years (DALY)
- Years of life lost due to mortality (YLL)
- Years of life lost due to morbidity (YLD)
Loss of life-expectancy

Background information needs

Costs

Citizen:

Heat system/energy efficiency renovation investment
Cost from household heating
- Prices of fuels in heat production

Society

Costs from healt impacts

Costs from CO2 emissions
Costs to citizens

Analyses

Cost-effictiveness analysis
Cost-benefit analysis
Value-of-information analysis

@@ Line 41: / Line 41: @@
 **Asthma due to indoor mold and dampness
 **Lung cancer due to indoor radon
-*Other emissions: CO2
+*Other evaluated emissions: CO2
 *Evaluated costs:
 **Costs fron health impacts
@@ Line 54: / Line 54: @@
 **Building energy efficiency improvement options
 **Building air filtering
 === Underlying scenarios  ===
@@ Line 83: / Line 82: @@
 ::[[Image:Claih model.PNG|thumb|700 px|CLAIH model overview]]
-=== Variables  ===
+===Decisions to be evaluated===
-====Decisions to be evaluated====
 ''Society:''
@@ Line 101: / Line 98: @@
-====Building stock development====
+===Building stock development===
 [[Image:Claih model building stock.PNG|thumb|500 px|Building stock development modelling]]
@@ Line 112: / Line 109: @@
-====Building heat consumption====
+===Building heat consumption===
 [[Image:Claih model heat consumption.PNG|thumb|500 px|Building heat consumption modelling]]
@@ Line 120: / Line 117: @@
-====Emissions====
+===Emissions===
 *[[PM2.5 emissions from house stock heating in Finland|PM2.5 emissions from house stock heating in Finland]]
@@ Line 129: / Line 126: @@
-====Exposure and exposure-response functions====
+===Exposure and exposure-response functions===
 '''PM2.5'''
@@ Line 170: / Line 167: @@
-====Health effects====
+===Health impacts===
 [[Image:ICT model.PNG|thumb|750 px|Health impact modelling]]
-''Health effect indicators''
+''Health impact indicators''
 Calculated for all exposures:
@@ Line 194: / Line 191: @@
-====Costs====
+===Costs===
 '''''Citizen:'''''
@@ Line 204: / Line 201: @@
 '''''Society'''''
-*Costs from healt effects
+*Costs from healt impacts
 **[[Value of a statistical life (VSL)]]
 **[[Value of a life year (VOLY)]]