Goherr: WP3 Scenarios and management objectives: Difference between revisions

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==Summary of workpackage==
==Summary of workpackage==


{| {{prettytable2}}
{| {{prettytable}}
|Work package number:||colspan="6" | WP 5
|Work package number:||colspan="6" | WP 3
|-
|-
|Start date or starting event:||colspan="6" | Month 1
|Start date or starting event:||colspan="6" | Month 1
|-
|-
|Work package title:||colspan="6"| Linking the health of the Baltic Sea with health of humans: Dioxin
|Work package title:||colspan="6"| Scenarios and management objectives
|-
|-
|Activity Type:||colspan="6"| RTD
|Activity Type:||colspan="6"| RTD
|-
|-
|Participant number || 2 || 4 || 3 || 5 || 1
|Participant number || 5 || 1 || 2 || 3 || 4
|-
|-
|Participant short name||THL || SLU || IFM-AAU || UOULU || UH
|Participant short name||UOULU || UH || THL || IFM-AAU || SLU
|-
|-
|Person-months per participant|| 16 || 13 ||0 ||2 ||8
|Person-months per participant|| 15 || 16 ||2 ||0 ||0
|}
|}


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|timo.p.karjalainen@oulu.fi
|timo.p.karjalainen@oulu.fi
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| PI; WP3 leader  
| PI; WP3 leader  
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| Mia Pihlajamäki
| Mia Pihlajamäki
| Thule institute, University of Oulu
| Thule institute, University of Oulu
| mia.pihlajamaki@gmail.com
| mia.pihlajamaki@oulu.fi
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== DoW ==
== DoW ==
'''Objectives'''
'''Objectives'''
1. Define objectives for integrated salmon and herring policy
* 1. Define objectives for integrated salmon and herring policy
2. Define pathways for reaching the objectives
* 2. Define pathways for reaching the objectives
3. Build exploratory future scenarios for eutrophication and dioxin input in the Baltic Sea, and for the use of Baltic herring and salmon
* 3. Build exploratory future scenarios for eutrophication and dioxin input in the Baltic Sea, and for the use of Baltic herring and salmon




'''Tasks'''
* Task 3.1. Defining desired future state and objectives for integrated salmon and herring policy (UOULU, UH, THL) (Month 12)
:Representatives from different stakeholder groups (fishers, consumers, eNGOs, authorities, scientists) will be involved in defining and prioritizing biological, social, economic, and human health related objectives for integrated salmon and herring policy. First, a questionnaire study using internet based survey tool Webropol(www.webropol.fi) will be carried out targeted to stakeholder groups. The results of the questionnaire will be evaluated with stakeholders in the International Workshop No1 (month 10), and based on that, objectives and targets will be defined both in qualitative and quantitative terms (e.g. target % to decrease dioxin level in fish), in collaboration with WP2 (Task2.2). The method of value-focused thinking will be used. It is a systematic procedure for identifying and structuring values and objectives by dividing the objectives into a)fundamental - b) means - c) process-, and d) organizational objectives (Keeney, 1992). The method is expected to lead to thoughtful and innovative management options (Arvai et al., 2001; Gregory and Keeney,1994).


'''Tasks'''
* Task 3.2. Identifying desirable future paths to reach the objectives (UOULU, UH, THL) (Month 20)
* 5.1 Effects of fishing on bioaccumulation of dioxins in herring (SLU) (M36)
:In the International Workshop No1 (month 10), defining the management objectives and targets for salmon and herring will be followed by identifying pathways to reach the desired management outcomes (e.g. what changes are needed, who should change and what, when). The proposed changes will be analysed backwards from the objective to the current situation, and a timeline for changes required to meet the future targets will be created. We apply the backcasting methodology (e.g. Robinson 2003), by not only focusing on desired outcomes, but also elaborating the processes needed to achieve the outcomes.


Use the herring-salmon-dioxin model from WP4 to analyze the effect of different fisheries, parameterized to mimic current Baltic Sea herring fisheries aimed for food consumption or industrial use, leading to positively, negatively and neutrally size-selective fishing mortality, respectively, and study their differential impact on bioaccumulation, individual life history, population and community structure.
* Task.3.3. Building scenarios (UOULU, UH) (Month 28)
*5.2 Herring fishing to reduce dioxin in salmon and herring (SLU) (M36)
:An exploratory approach will be used in scenario building, based on existing large scale environmental scenarios (e.g. the Global Environmental Outlook), literature reviews (WP2), stakeholder interviews (WP2), the work on dioxin (WP5), and expert workshops (scientists, authorities, industry representatives). The aim is to: a) Build and explore four integrative scenarios for the future of Baltic salmon and herring regarding threats, state, impacts and governance responses, and; b) Build scenarios up to year 2040 for the needs of the Decision Support Tool (WP6) related to 1) eutrophication and 2) dioxin releases, 3) the use of Baltic herring, and 4) salmon policy, by taking into account different political, economic, social, technical, climate change-related etc. circumstances. For the Decision Support Tool (WP6) the probability of materialization of each identified scenario will be estimated by probabilities. Experts’ views will also be interviewed in relation to potential management measures to decrease eutrophication and dioxin input in the Baltic.


Investigate alternative management schemes aiming to minimize bioaccumulation of dioxins in herring and salmon by systematically varying the level and size-selectivity of fishing mortality on herring in the novel herring-salmon-dioxin model from WP4.
*5.3 Determinants of fish eating habits (THL, UH, UOULU) (M22)


The impact of different eating habits (demand of different sizes of herring) on the state of the fish stocks and finally the Baltic Sea will be examined. Also, determinants (such as age and knowledge about dioxins or recommendations) and trends in people’s eating habits will be studied by using a questionnaire targeted to a large sample of consumers in selected case studies (different Baltic Sea countries). The results will be used in the scenario modelling related to the use of herring and salmon in WP3, and finally in the Decision Support Model of WP6. The analyses will help to understand how improved information for consumers may impact the consumption, and health benefits and risks related to the consumption.
'''Tentative timeline'''
*5.4 Benefit-risk assessment of previous, current and future fish intake (THL) (Month 34)


THL has recently collected data about previous and current fish consumption in Finland, especially about Baltic herring. These data will be used to update the estimates about fish intake and also exposures to harmful (dioxin and other persistent pollutants) and healthy (omega-3 fatty acids, vitamin D) compounds in Baltic fish. A probabilistic benefit-risk assessment will be performed to inform policy makers about the health impacts of fish. Further, this assessment will be combined with the results of the other WPs to produce estimates of future health impacts of Baltic fish related to different policy options. These estimates will be used as input in the decision support model built in WP6. A similar assessment will be produced for Sweden using their respective national data about fish consumption.
{{#l:GOHERR WP 3 timeline.docx}}


== Deliverables ==
== Deliverables ==
* D5.1 An open online model about dioxins in fish; human consumption; and health benefits and risks (Month 24). Responsible partner: THL.
* Deliverables (brief description and month of delivery)
* D5.2 Journal publication (submitted): The health benefit-risk model results (Month 34). Responsible partner: THL.
* D3.1 Report/MS: Concretizing fundamental values to normative future targets: What are the objectives and outcomes of Baltic salmon and herring governance processes (Month 14). Responsible partner: UOULU.
* D5.3 Report/MS: The role of size-selective fisheries on bioaccumulation of dioxins (Month 36). Responsible partner: SLU.
*[[Goherr: 3.2. Online description of the scenarios developed, applicable in the dioxin model (Task 5.1) and decision support model of WP6 (Month 16). Responsible partner: UOULU.| D3.2. Online description of the scenarios developed, applicable in the dioxin model (Task 5.1) and decision support model of WP6 (Month 16) Responsible partner: UOULU]]
* D3.3. Report/MS: Exploring futures of Baltic salmon and herring by assessing potential impacts of ecosystem approach (Month 20). Responsible partner: UOULU.
* D3.4 Report/MS: From context specifics to robust recommendations: targeted future proposals to make
Baltic salmon and herring governance more sustainable (Month 24). Responsible partner: UOULU.
* D3.5. Journal publication (submitted): Developing the scenario methodology in the context of complex multilevel fisheries governance (Month 26). Responsible partner: UOULU.
 
==See also==
==See also==
* [[:en:Water Framework Directive]]
* [[:en:Ecosystem-based management]]


{{Goherr}}
{{Goherr}}
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==Related files==
==Related files==


{{mfiles}}
{{#l:GOHERR Kick off_WP3_UOulu.pptx}}
 
 
People:
WP leader: Timo P. Karjalainen;
Postdoc researcher: Simo Sarkki;
PhD Student: Mia Pihlajamäki.
 
Objectives
1. Define objectives for integrated salmon and herring policy
2. Define pathways for reaching the objectives
3. Build exploratory future scenarios for eutrophication and dioxin input in the Baltic Sea, and for the use of Baltic herring and salmon

Latest revision as of 08:08, 3 April 2017



Summary of workpackage

Work package number: WP 3
Start date or starting event: Month 1
Work package title: Scenarios and management objectives
Activity Type: RTD
Participant number 5 1 2 3 4
Participant short name UOULU UH THL IFM-AAU SLU
Person-months per participant 15 16 2 0 0

Contact information

Name Institution e-mail skype phone Responsibilities
Timo P. Karjalainen Thule institute, University of Oulu timo.p.karjalainen@oulu.fi PI; WP3 leader
Simo Sarkki Thule institute, University of Oulu simo.sarkki@oulu.fi
Mia Pihlajamäki Thule institute, University of Oulu mia.pihlajamaki@oulu.fi

DoW

Objectives

  • 1. Define objectives for integrated salmon and herring policy
  • 2. Define pathways for reaching the objectives
  • 3. Build exploratory future scenarios for eutrophication and dioxin input in the Baltic Sea, and for the use of Baltic herring and salmon


Tasks

  • Task 3.1. Defining desired future state and objectives for integrated salmon and herring policy (UOULU, UH, THL) (Month 12)
Representatives from different stakeholder groups (fishers, consumers, eNGOs, authorities, scientists) will be involved in defining and prioritizing biological, social, economic, and human health related objectives for integrated salmon and herring policy. First, a questionnaire study using internet based survey tool Webropol(www.webropol.fi) will be carried out targeted to stakeholder groups. The results of the questionnaire will be evaluated with stakeholders in the International Workshop No1 (month 10), and based on that, objectives and targets will be defined both in qualitative and quantitative terms (e.g. target % to decrease dioxin level in fish), in collaboration with WP2 (Task2.2). The method of value-focused thinking will be used. It is a systematic procedure for identifying and structuring values and objectives by dividing the objectives into a)fundamental - b) means - c) process-, and d) organizational objectives (Keeney, 1992). The method is expected to lead to thoughtful and innovative management options (Arvai et al., 2001; Gregory and Keeney,1994).
  • Task 3.2. Identifying desirable future paths to reach the objectives (UOULU, UH, THL) (Month 20)
In the International Workshop No1 (month 10), defining the management objectives and targets for salmon and herring will be followed by identifying pathways to reach the desired management outcomes (e.g. what changes are needed, who should change and what, when). The proposed changes will be analysed backwards from the objective to the current situation, and a timeline for changes required to meet the future targets will be created. We apply the backcasting methodology (e.g. Robinson 2003), by not only focusing on desired outcomes, but also elaborating the processes needed to achieve the outcomes.
  • Task.3.3. Building scenarios (UOULU, UH) (Month 28)
An exploratory approach will be used in scenario building, based on existing large scale environmental scenarios (e.g. the Global Environmental Outlook), literature reviews (WP2), stakeholder interviews (WP2), the work on dioxin (WP5), and expert workshops (scientists, authorities, industry representatives). The aim is to: a) Build and explore four integrative scenarios for the future of Baltic salmon and herring regarding threats, state, impacts and governance responses, and; b) Build scenarios up to year 2040 for the needs of the Decision Support Tool (WP6) related to 1) eutrophication and 2) dioxin releases, 3) the use of Baltic herring, and 4) salmon policy, by taking into account different political, economic, social, technical, climate change-related etc. circumstances. For the Decision Support Tool (WP6) the probability of materialization of each identified scenario will be estimated by probabilities. Experts’ views will also be interviewed in relation to potential management measures to decrease eutrophication and dioxin input in the Baltic.


Tentative timeline

GOHERR WP 3 timeline

Deliverables

Baltic salmon and herring governance more sustainable (Month 24). Responsible partner: UOULU.

  • D3.5. Journal publication (submitted): Developing the scenario methodology in the context of complex multilevel fisheries governance (Month 26). Responsible partner: UOULU.

See also

Goherr Research project 2015-2018: Integrated governance of Baltic herring and salmon stocks involving stakeholders

Goherr public website

Workpackages

WP1 Management · WP2 Sociocultural use, value and goverrnance of Baltic salmon and herring · WP3 Scenarios and management objectives · WP4 Linking fish physiology to food production and bioaccumulation of dioxin · WP5 Linking the health of the Baltic Sea with health of humans: Dioxin · WP6 Building a decision support model for integrated governance · WP7 Dissemination

Other pages in Opasnet

GOHERR assessment · Goherr flyer · Goherr scenarios · Relevant literature: policy · dioxins · values

Data

Exposure- response functions of dioxins · Fish consumption in Sweden · POP concentrations in Baltic sea fish · Exposure-response functions of Omega3 fatty acids

Methods Health impact assessment · OpasnetBaseUtils‎ · Modelling in Opasnet
Other assessments Benefit-risk assessment of Baltic herring · Benefit-risk assessment on farmed salmon · Benefit-risk assessment of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids in fish · Benefit-risk assessment of fish consumption for Beneris · Benefit-risk assessment of Baltic herring (in Finnish)

http://www.bonusportal.org/ http://www.bonusprojects.org/bonusprojects

Related files

GOHERR Kick off_WP3_UOulu

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