Public health impacts of GHG emission reduction strategies in household energy use

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Assessment is based on the work by Wilkinson et al. 2009

File:HIA housing energy Wilkinson09.ana

Scope

Purpose

Health impacts of different climate change mitigation strategies aimed at reducing GHG emissions from household energy use.

Boundaries

Spatial:

• United Kingdom

Temporal:

• Impacts during one year, reference year 2010

Population:

• UK total population

Policy strategies:

• Increased energy efficiency of household heating by
  • Increased insulation by dwelling fabric improvements
  • Improved dwelling ventilation control
  • Fuel switching from indoor household fossil fuel combustion to electricity
  • Reduce in indoor temperatures by change in occupant behaviour

Scenarios

• Baseline
  • Distributions of efficiency for UK housing stock and associated GHG emissions and health effects
• Scenario 1: dwelling fabric improvements
  • Overall heat loss of the fabric reduced from 224 J/s per ºC to 98 j/s per ºC
• Scenario 2: improved dwelling ventilation control
  • The present permeability of the housing stock shifted to present reduced air leakage in all dwellings
  • Tightest dwellings (3 m3/m2 per h) assumed to have ideal mechanical ventilation
• Scenario 3: fuel switching
  • All indoor combustion replaced by electricity
  • Effects on CO2 emission not modelled
• Scenario 4: Occupant behaviour
  • Indoor temperature in all dwellings with average temperature > 18 ºC decreased by 1 ºC. Temperatures ≤18 ºC unchanged.
• Scenario 5: combination of scenarios 1-4

Definition

Decision variables

• Dwelling fabric improvements (yes/no)
• Improved ventilation control (yes/no)
• Fuel switch to electricity (yes/no)
• Decrease in indoor temperatures (yes/no)

Indicators

• Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)
• Premature deaths
• Household energy sector greenhouse gas emissions

Other variables

Indoor exposures

• Fine particles (PM2.5, µg/m3)
  • Baseline: 5.5
  • Scenario 1: 5.5
  • Scenario 2: 4.6
  • Scenario 3: 3.7
  • Scenario 4: 5.5
  • Scenario 5: 2.5
• Radon (Bq/m3)
  • Baseline: 21.7
  • Scenario 1: 21.7
  • Scenario 2: 17.2
  • Scenario 3: 21.7
  • Scenario 4: 21.7
  • Scenario 5: 17.2
• Carbon monoxide (CO, probability of poisoning)
  • Baseline: 1E-6
  • Scenario 1: 1E-6
  • Scenario 2: 1E-6
  • Scenario 3: 0
  • Scenario 4: 1E-6
  • Scenario 5: 0
• Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS, exposure expressed in ETS units)
  • Baseline: 1.5
  • Scenario 1: 1.5
  • Scenario 2: 1.7
  • Scenario 3: 1.5
  • Scenario 4: 1.5
  • Scenario 5: 1.7
• Mould growth (% with mold index >1)
  • Baseline: 17.7
  • Scenario 1: 17.3
  • Scenario 2: 20.3
  • Scenario 3: 17.7
  • Scenario 4: 18.7
  • Scenario 5: 20.8
• Cold (winter indoor temperature C)
  • Baseline: 18.1
  • Scenario 1: 18.4
  • Scenario 2: 18.2
  • Scenario 3: 18.1
  • Scenario 4: 17.9
  • Scenario 5: 18.5

Exposure-response functions

• PM2.5 exposure and cardiopulmonary mortality
  • RR 1.059 per 10 µg/m3
• PM2.5 exposure and lung cancer
  • 1.082 per 10 µg/m3
• ERF for long-term indoor exposure to radon and lung cancer
• Risk of death from acute CO toxicity
  • 1 death per million people for dwellings with combustion appliances
• ERF for ETS exposure and mortality due to myocardial infarction
  • RR 1.30 if living in the same dwelling as smoker (age >30 years)
• ETS exposure and mortality due to cerebrovascular accident (age >30 years)
  • RR 1.25 if living in the same dwelling as smoker
• ERF for indoor exposure to dampness and mold and respiratory symptoms
• ERF for short-term indoor exposure to cold and cardiovascular mortality

Analyses

• Comparative health impact assessment
• Sensitivity analyses

Indices

• Age
• Pollutant

Result

Results

Change per million population compared with baseline scenario

Premature deaths	Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3	Scenario 4	Scenario 5
PM2.5	0	-32	-64	0	-107
Radon	0	3	0	0	3
CO	0	0	-1	0	-1
ETS	0	24	0	0	24
Mold	0	0	0	0	0
Cold	-7	-1	0	0	-8
Total	-7	-6	-65	0	-89
DALYs
PM2.5	0	-310	-619	0	-1026
Radon	0	43	0	0	43
CO	0	0	-25	0	-25
ETS	0	219	0	0	219
Mold	-2	12	0	5	15
Cold	-60	-12	0	0	-72
Total	-62	-48	-644	5	-847
CO2 emissions (MT)	-33	-6	0	2	41

Change in disease burdens per MT CO2 saved

	Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3	Scenario 4	Scenario 5
Premature deaths	-12.2	-64	-	0	-133
DALYs	-115	-492	-	17.3	-1267