Mortality effects of heat exposure in large European cities

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Scope

What is the annual number of deaths caused by summertime (April-September) heat exposure in large European cities?

Indices

Country/other geographic area (differences in heat exposure/effects due to climate, physiological, cultural or behavioral factors)
Age
Cause of death
Year

Definition

Data

Dependencies

Methodology for modelling health impacts of heat exposure in the assessment Health impacts of urban heat island mitigation in Europe:

For each city (i.e. grid cell representing a large city), the number of days when the region-specific AT threshold was exceeded was determined for different scenarios. These days were then classified into different exposure classes based on the level of threshold exceedance on 1°C accuracy.

Mortality caused by current heat exposure

Adjusted relative risk (RR’) and population attributable fraction (PAF) for each exposure class (ec) and age-category were calculated as follows:

RR’ec = exp(β*Eec)
where
β = Percent change in mortality associated with a 1°C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the region specific threshold in  different age categories
Eec = AT threshold exceedance in a given exposure class (0, 1, 2, … , 20 ºC)

PAFec = (RR’ec -1)/ RR’ec

Annual number of deaths attributable to heat exposure was calculated as follows:

Attributable deaths = PAFec * MR * Pop * Nec
where
MR = Daily risk of mortality from natural causes in different countries and age- categories
Pop = Number of population in a city in a given age-category in 2010 
Nec = Number of days in a given exposure class in 2010

Mortality caused by heat exposure in the future

For each country, the daily risk of natural mortality in the absence of heat exposure (MRbg) was calculated as follows:

MRbg = MR – (Mheat/Pop/183)
where
MR = Daily risk of mortality from natural causes in different countries and age- categories
Mheat = Total number of deaths attributable to heat exposure in a given age-category in 2010
Pop = Number of population in a city in a given age-category in 2010
183 = Number of days in April-September

Annual number of deaths attributable to heat exposure was calculated as follows:

Attributable deaths = MRbg * (RR’ec - 1) * Pop * Nec
where
RR’ec = Adjusted relative risk for a given exposure class (see above)
MRbg = Daily risk of mortality from natural causes in different age- categories in the absence of heat exposure
Pop = Number of population in a city in a given age-category and year
Nec = Number of days in a given exposure class in a given year

Unit

No. of deaths/year

Result

Annual deaths (all natural causes, mean and 95% confidence limits) attributable to heat exposure in large cities based on the methodology and data used in the assessment Health impacts of urban heat island mitigation in Europe.

Year	Climate scenario A1B	Climate scenario B1
2010	14 639 (8142-22847)	14 639 (8142-22847)
2050	78357 (42046-123275)	46341 (24366-77494)

Countries included in the assessment: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, United Kingdom, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain.
These estimates do consider population aging but not the possible behavioural and physiological adaptation to increasing temperatures in the future.

References