Expert Elicitation on PM

Research team at KTL

• Jouni Tuomisto, D.Med.Sc, docent
• Marko Tainio, M.Sc

International collaboration

• Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, Boston, USA
• Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.

Contact person

• Jouni Tuomisto

Background

The Harvard Kuwait public health project performed a comprehensive analysis of the health impact of the 1991 Kuwait oil fires, which were set ablaze by Iraq just before the first Gulf War. As a part of this exercise, an expert elicitation regarding the health effects of the smoke from the Kuwaiti oil fires was conducted. Six European experts participated in this exercise – responding to an extensive series of quantitative questions and engaging in qualitative discussions about the mortality response to air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM 2.5). The questions concerned the effects of PM 2.5 in general and also asked about effects in specific locations, among particular populations, and about both the time lag between exposure and effect of the relative toxicity of particles from various sources. The analysis stressed the quantification of uncertainty in the health impact predictions in conformity with the above desiderata. The elicitation was conducted in the Spring/Summer of 2004.

Objectives

The purpose of the study is to quantify the uncertainty in PM 2.5 mortality response based on assessments of these experts, to compare different strategies for combining judgment, and to describe the experts' reasoning for their answers.

Publication

Forthcoming.

Files

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