ERF of waterborne microbes
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Question
What are the dose-response functions of pathogens in drinking water?
Answer
Rationale
Data
Obs | Exposure agent | Response | Exposure | Exposure unit | ER function | Scaling | Threshold | ERF | Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | campylobacter | campylobacter infection | ingestion | ? | beta poisson approximation | None | 0.011 | 0.024 | |
2 | rotavirus | rotavirus infection | ingestion | ? | exact beta poisson | None | 0.191 | 0.167 | |
3 | norovirus | norovirus infection | ingestion | ? | exact beta poisson | None | 0.055 | 0.04 | |
4 | sapovirus | sapovirus infection | ingestion | ? | exact beta poisson | None | 0.055 | 0.04 | |
5 | cryptosporidium | cryptosporidium infection | ingestion | ? | exact beta poisson | None | 0.176 | 0.115 | |
6 | giardia | giardia infection | ingestion | ? | exponential | None | 0 | 0.0199 | |
7 | E.coli O157:H7 | E.coli O157:H7 infection | ingestion | ? | exact beta poisson | None | 9.16 | 0.157 | E. coli O157:H7 strain |
Obs | Response | Illness | Subgroup | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | giardia infection | gastroenteritis | 1 | |
2 | cryptosporidium infection | gastroenteritis | 0.71 | |
3 | cryptosporidium infection | death | Age:0-4 | 0.00000070645 |
4 | cryptosporidium infection | death | Age:5-9 | 0 |
5 | cryptosporidium infection | death | Age:10-14 | 0 |
6 | cryptosporidium infection | death | Age:15-64 | 0.000014839 |
7 | cryptosporidium infection | death | Age:65-79 | 0.0011644 |
8 | cryptosporidium infection | death | Age:80+ | 0.0011644 |
9 | norovirus infection | gastroenteritis | 0.7 | |
10 | norovirus infection | death | Age:0-4 | 0.000002058 |
11 | norovirus infection | death | Age:5-9 | 0 |
12 | norovirus infection | death | Age:10-14 | 0 |
13 | norovirus infection | death | Age:15-64 | 0 |
14 | norovirus infection | death | Age:65-79 | 0.000168 |
15 | norovirus infection | death | Age:80+ | 0.000168 |
16 | sapovirus infection | gastroenteritis | 0.7 | |
17 | sapovirus infection | death | Age:0-4 | 0.000002058 |
18 | sapovirus infection | death | Age:5-9 | 0 |
19 | sapovirus infection | death | Age:10-14 | 0 |
20 | sapovirus infection | death | Age:15-64 | 0 |
21 | sapovirus infection | death | Age:65-79 | 0.000168 |
22 | sapovirus infection | death | Age:80+ | 0.000168 |
23 | rotavirus infection | gastroenteritis | 0.5 | |
24 | rotavirus infection | death | Age:0-4 | 0.00001917 |
25 | rotavirus infection | death | Age:5-9 | 0 |
26 | rotavirus infection | death | Age:10-14 | 0 |
27 | rotavirus infection | death | Age:15-64 | 0 |
28 | rotavirus infection | death | Age:65-79 | 0 |
29 | rotavirus infection | death | Age:80+ | 0 |
30 | campylobacter infection | gastroenteritis | 0.323 | |
31 | campylobacter infection | clinical Guillian-Barré syndrome | 0.000066 | |
32 | campylobacter infection | residual Guillian Barré syndrome | 0.000066 | |
33 | campylobacter infection | reactive arthritis | 0.0066 | |
34 | campylobacter infection | death | 0.000131 | |
35 | E.coli O157:H7 infection | gastroenteritis | 0.4346 | |
36 | E.coli O157:H7 infection | hemorrhagic colitis | 0.3854 | |
37 | E.coli O157:H7 infection | haemolytic uraemic syndrome | 0.0082 | |
38 | E.coli O157:H7 infection | end stage renal disease | 0.0009676 | |
39 | E.coli O157:H7 infection | death | 0.00062238 |
⇤--arg6688: . Find out the units of the parameters to understand the functions precisely. --Jouni (talk) 12:54, 11 July 2019 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: attack)
- ----arg2087: . The ERF and Threshold numbers in the tables correspond to parameters called alpha and beta respectively in the papers cited below in the cases of campylo, rota, noro and crypto. The equations alpha and beta are used in in the papers don't (seem to) match the equations below. At least for campylo the equations are significantly more complicated. For giardia the value in ERF does seem to be used in the paper it's from in the way the exponential equation shows. In the paper it's marked as r, the probability of infection. The equation in the paper uses "mean number per portion" where Dose is in this equation. E.coli is the biggest mystery: I wasn't able to find the numbers in the table above from the paper sited for it at all. --Heta (talk) 10:32, 12 July 2019 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
In these equations, Param1 and Param2 are in ERF and Threshold, respectively.
- Beta Poisson approximation: 1-(1+Dose/Param2)^-Param1
- Exact beta Poisson: 1-exp(-(Param1/(Param1+Param2))*Dose)
- Exponential: 1-exp(-Param1*Dose)
Pathogen | Reference |
Campylobacter | [1] [2] |
Rotavirus | [3] [2] |
Norovirus | [4] |
Sapovirus | [5] |
Cryptosporidium | [6][2] |
Giardia | [7] |
E.coli O157:H7 | [8] |
Calculations
⇤--arg5268: . The code below is old and does not work with the new ERF table. --Jouni (talk) 12:54, 11 July 2019 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: attack)
See also
References
- ↑ Teunis, P., van den Brandhof, W., Nauta, M., Wagenaar, J., van den Kerkhof, H. and van Pelt, W. 2005. A reconsideration of the Campylobacter dose–response relation. Epidemiol. Infec. 133, 583-592. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268805003912
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 WHO Guidelines for drinking-water quality 2017. ISBN 978-92-4-154995-0 [1]
- ↑ Teunis, P. F. M. and Havelaar, A. 2000. "The beta Poisson dose‐response model is not a single hit model."Risk Analysis 20(4): 513-520. https://doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.204048
- ↑ Teunis P.F.M., Moe, C.L., Liu, P., Miller, S.E., Lindesmith, L., Baric, R.S., Le Pendu, J., Calderon, R.L. 2008. Norwalk Virus: How Infectious is It? Journal of Medical Virology 80:1468-1476. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.21237
- ↑ Teunis P.F.M., Moe, C.L., Liu, P., Miller, S.E., Lindesmith, L., Baric, R.S., Le Pendu, J., Calderon, R.L. 2008. Norwalk Virus: How Infectious is It? Journal of Medical Virology 80:1468-1476. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.21237
- ↑ Teunis, P.F.M., Chappell, C.L., Okhuysen, P.C. 2002. Cryptosporidium Dose Response Studies: Variation Between Isolates. Risk Analysis 22(1) 175-183 https://doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.00014
- ↑ Teunis, P.F.M., van der Heijden, O.G., van der Giessen, J.W.B., Havelaar, A.H. 1996. The dose-response relation in human volunteers for gastro-intestinal pathogens. RIVM report No. 284550002. http://hdl.handle.net/10029/9966
- ↑ Teunis, P., Takumi, K. and Shinagawa, K. 2004. "Dose response for infection by Escherichia coli O157:H7 from outbreak data." Risk Analysis 24(2): 401‐407. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00441.x