Talk:Scud

See also Progress Report (15 April 2010).

Final project report

Personal data/CV

Principal investigator of research

Applicant Sex Date of birth Nationality

Jouni Tuomisto Male 1.5.1967 Finland

Site of research and department Present position

National Institute for Health and Welfare, Department of Environmental Health. Senior researcher

Address

Street address Neulaniementie 4

P.O.Box 95

FI-70701 Kuopio

Finland

E-mail

jouni.tuomisto[at]thl.fi

Curriculum vitae

Basic project data

Key information about the project

Applicant	Jouni Tuomisto
Call	Academy researcher 1.8.2005 - 31.7.2010 (AT-viroista AT-tehtäviin siirtyvät 2010)
Research Council	Research Council for Biosciences and Environment
Site of research and department	National Institute for Health and Welfare, Department of Environmental Health
Project title	Ympäristöterveyden riskianalyysi: tieteelliset epävarmuudet päätöksenteossa Environmental health risk analysis: Scientific uncertainties in decision-making
Decision number	126532, 218114
Funding period:	1.1.2008-31.7.2010
Reporting period	10.01.2008 - 31.07.2010
Funding granted	279 781 €
Funding	Research grant for academy researcher
Previous funding of the project	Decision SA/111775 (2005-2007): 155880 €. Decision SA/108571 (2005-2010): 299340 €.

Public description of the project

(1000 characters in Finnish and English)

The objectives of the project are to

• develop methods for estimating the value of scientific information for decision-making,
• develop methods for explicitly describing the actual decision situations in a way that scientific understanding can be utilised, and
• perform benefit-risk assessments on topics with high public health relevance.

The project has developed, in collaboration, a web workspace Opasnet (http://en.opasnet.org) for performing assessments in a way that allows for open participation without hampering scientific scrutiny. Several benefit-risk assessments have been performed in Opasnet using open data, open models (executable or readable with a web browser), and open discussion protocols to evaluate and improve the assessments.

The project has solved many problems related to the production of information for decision making. The major remaining problems lie in the use of information, and in cultural inertia in adopting better methods developed.

Projektin tavoitteet ovat

• kehittää menetelmiä arvioimaan tieteellisen tiedon arvoa päätöksenteolle,
• kehittää menetelmiä kuvaamaan todellisia päätöstilanteita siten, että tieteellistä ymmärrystä voidaan hyödyntää, ja
• tehdä hyöty-riskinarviointeja kansanterveydellisesti merkittävistä aiheista.

Projekti on kehittänyt yhteistyönä verkkotyötila Opasnetin (http://fi.opasnet.org) arviointien tekemiseen siten, että avoin osallistuminen voidaan sallia vaarantamatta tarkastelun tieteellisyyttä. Useita hyöty-riskinarviointeja on tehty Opasnetissä käyttäen avointa dataa, avoimia malleja (ajettavissa ja luettavissa nettiselaimella) ja avoimia keskustelukäytäntöjä arviointien evaluaatioon ja parantamiseen.

Projekti on ratkaissut monet ongelmat, jotka liittyvät tiedon tuotantoon päätöksentekoa varten. Suurimmat ongelmat jäävät tiedon käyttöön päätöksenteossa sekä kulttuurin hitauteen omaksua kehitettyjä parempia menetelmiä.

Funding for the project

Project funding

• List relevant fundings and sums

Research personnel

Research personnel

• List relevant personnel

Presentation of results

3000 characters

Scud has started a new way of making impact assessments. It has collaborated with several projects (Finmerac, Minera [Tekes]; Beneris, Intarese, Heimtsa [EU 6FP]; Urgenche, Plantlibra [EU 7FP]; Claih, Bioher [Academy of Finland]) and research institutes (RIVM, PBL, Delft University of Technology [NL]; Imperial College London, University of Exeter [UK]; University of Stuttgart [DE]; Harvard School of Public Health [US]; Cyprus University of Technology [CY]) in developing and applying these new methods.

The overall aim of the mew methods is to collect, organise, synthesise, and disseminate scientific information for helping societal decision-making in a way where open, unlimited participation in possible. The method is called open assessment. In practice, we have developed a web workspace Opasnet (http://en.opasnet.org), which contains a suite of functionalities for e.g. describing complex environmental health problems, developing and running quantitative assessment models, chairing organised discussions, and performing and publishing original research. Opasnet is becoming a workspace where information can be managed all the way from a research plan to a policy advisory report. The workspace is planned for different users, including researchers, impact assessors, politicians, stakeholders, journalists, and citizens.

Main scientific results

• Openness and sharing are important points in developing impact assessments
• Assessments are typically evaluated based on either the quality control of the assessment process or estimating uncertainties in the output (report). However, a more thorough evaluation can be achieved by looking at 1) quality of content (informativeness, calibration, relevance), 2) applicability (coherence, availability, usability, acceptability), and 3) efficiency (for one assessment and for several similar assessments).
• There are several kinds of assessments. In general, there is a tendency towards 1) more inclusive assessment process, 2) inclusion of values in addition to scientific facts, 3) involvement of decision makers in the scoping of assessments, and 4)...
• Assessments can be "industrialised", i.e. made in a way where as much as possible of the information is described in a standard format. The purpose is to avoid duplicate work by borrowing information objects from existing assessments. For this purpose, a standard structure for information objects is needed. Based on the project work, a good structure seems to be 1) a research question, which clarifies the topic, 2) one or more hypotheses as answers to the question, and 3) rationale to defend the hypotheses (and attack previous hypotheses that were rejected).

Other outcomes

Invention notifications

• None

Patent notifications

• None

Communication (other than to the scientific community)

• Publications and communications

World Summit Award 2010

Other impacts of the project

3000 characters

Ideas:

• op_fi:Verovähennyskortti
• Timeline and main events or new thoughts.

The Scud project has progressed better than hoped for in the beginning. The open assessment method has been tested successfully in several projects, and the Opasnet workspace has been used for making assessments. Both the method and the web workspace are being constantly developed. However, the current focus of the work is marketing. To be able to develop methods further, there is an urgent need to get new users to Opasnet also outside the current research collaboration.

Main practical results

• Several assessments: swine flu, indoor radon, indoor moisture, jatropha .,,,
• Several methods: discussion, VOI, open assessment,
• Several policy-relevant discussion papers: verovähennyskortti, THL strategia, tutkimuslaitoksen sähköinen tietohallinto, hallisutohjelma....

Project cooperation

FMI
SYKE
HSPH
TUDelft

Partners

Organisation

Form of cooperation

Country

Type of organisation

Description of cooperation

Field of research

Descriptions not included in the final report

Several key statements were made.

Key statements about risk assessment and promises about the project.

Statement or promise	What was done to achieve the statement or fulfil the promise
Iterative approaches (and stepwise improvement of models) should be used in risk assessment.
Decisions should be explicitly included in the definition of a particular risk and thus in the risk assessment.
Structured deliberation, i.e. formalising decision--risk situations with causal diagrams, should be used to connect formal modelling and free discussions.
Preferences, values, and reasonings of scope should be included and explicated.
Risk comparison methods will be reviewed. (DALY, QALY).	Work also in Plantlibra.
Precautionary principle approaches will be explored.
Bayesian methods will be used.
Expert judgement elicitation will be used.	PMEE
Existing methods will be more widely used (Monte Carlo, principal component analysis, data management,...)	Sharing methods via Opasnet
Variation and uncertainty will be systematically applied in modelling.
Value of information approach will be used.	Composite traffic, Radon, moisture, swine flu, claih. A function in Analytica and R
Several articles about dioxins, fine particles, structured deliberation and expert judgement will be published.	See list (count number of each type)
I will go to work abroad, probably Europe.	I have applied a part-time professorship in Cyprus International Institute for Environmental and Public Health [].
The four doctoral students will graduate 2006, 2006, 2007, 2008.
We will develop connections to University of Kuopio and SYTYKE graduate school.	Membership in board
Models and data will be documented clearly and explicitly, and managed and stored carefully.
Everything will be made publicly available except non-public data.
We will explore the role of scientific uncertainties in a decision-making process with multiple decision-makers.

Publications

1. Tuomisto, JT; Pekkanen, J. 2005. Assessing environmental health risks or net health benefits?. SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH 33 (3): 162-163.
2. Tuomisto, JT; Tainio, M. 2005. An economic way of reducing health, environmental, and other pressures of urban traffic: a decision analysis on trip aggregation. BMC PUBLIC HEALTH 5:123.
3. Kiviranta, H; Tuomisto, JT; Tuomisto, J; Tukiainen, E; Vartiainen, T. 2005. Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans, and biphenyls in the general population in Finland. CHEMOSPHERE 60 (7): 854-869.
4. Fletcher, N; Giese, N; Schmidt, C; Stern, N; Lind, PM; Viluksela, M; Tuomisto, JT; Tuomisto, J; Nau, H; Hakansson, H. 2005. Altered retinoid metabolism in female long-evans and Han/Wistar rats following long-term 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD)-treatment. TOXICOLOGICAL SCIENCES 86 (2): 264-272.
5. Hanninen, OO; Palonen, J; Tuomisto, JT; Yli-Tuomi, T; Seppanen, O; Jantunen, MJ. 2005. Reduction potential of urban PM2.5 mortality risk using modern ventilation systems in buildings. INDOOR AIR 15 (4): 246-256.
6. Hanninen, OO; Tuomisto, JT; Jantunen, MJ. 2005. Characterization of model error in a simulation of fine particulate matter exposure distributions of the working age population in Helsinki, Finland. JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION 55 (4): 446-457.
7. Tainio, M; Tuomisto, JT; Hanninen, O; Aarnio, P; Koistinen, KJ; Jantunen, MJ; Pekkanen, J. 2005. Health effects caused by primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emitted from buses in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland. RISK ANALYSIS 25 (1): 151-160.
8. Tuomisto J, Pekkanen J, Kiviranta H, Tukiainen E, Vartiainen T, Viluksela M, Tuomisto JT. Dioxin Cancer Risk - Example of Hormesis? Dose Response. 2006 May 1;3(3):332-341. [1]
9. van Bree, L; Fudge, N; Tuomisto, JT; Brunekreef, B. 2007. Closing the gap between science and policy on air pollution and health. JOURNAL OF TOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH-PART A-CURRENT ISSUES 70 (3-4): 377-381.
10. Tainio M, Tuomisto JT, Hanninen O, et al.: Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH, 6 (Article 6) AUG 23 2007.
11. Cooke RM, Wilson AM, Tuomisto JT, et al. A Probabilistic characterization of the relationship between fine particulate matter and mortality: Elicitation of European experts. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 41 (18): 6598-6605 SEP 15 2007. [2]
12. Niittynen M, Simanainen U, Syrjala P, et al. Differences in acute toxicity syndromes of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin and 1,2,3,4,7,8-hexachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin in rats. TOXICOLOGY 235 (1-2): 39-51 JUN 3 2007 2007.
13. Kiljunen M, Vanhatalo M, Mantyniemi S, et al. Human dietary intake of organochlorines from Baltic herring: Implications of individual fish variability and fisheries management. AMBIO 36 (2-3): 257-264 APR 2007.
14. Main KM, Kiviranta H, Virtanen HE, Sundqvist E, Tuomisto JT, Tuomisto J, Vartiainen T, Skakkebaek NE, Toppari J. Flame retardants in placenta and breast milk and cryptorchidism in newborn boys. Environ Health Perspect. 2007 Oct;115(10):1519-26. [3]
15. Jouni T. Tuomisto, Andrew Wilson, John S. Evans, Marko Tainio. 2008. Uncertainty in mortality response to airborne fine particulate matter: Combining European air pollution experts. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93: 732-744.
16. Niittynen M, Tuomisto JT, Pohjanvirta R. Effect of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) on heme oxygenase-1, biliverdin IXalpha reductase and delta-aminolevulinic acid synthetase 1 in rats with wild-type or variant AH receptor. Toxicology. 2008 Sep 4;250(2-3):132-42. Epub 2008 Jul 10. [4]
17. Karvosenoja, N (Karvosenoja, Niko); Tainio, M (Tainio, Marko); Kupiainen, K (Kupiainen, Kaarle); Tuomisto, JT (Tuomisto, Jouni T.); Kukkonen, J (Kukkonen, Jaakko); Johansson, M (Johansson, Matti). Evaluation of the emissions and uncertainties of PM2.5 originated from vehicular traffic and domestic wood combustion in Finland. BOREAL ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH, 13 (5): 465-474 OCT 31 2008.
18. Leino O, Tainio M, Tuomisto JT. Comparative risk analysis of dioxins in fish and fine particles from heavy-duty vehicles. Risk Anal. 2008 Feb;28(1):127-40. [5]
19. Franc MA, Moffat ID, Boutros PC, Tuomisto JT, Tuomisto J, Pohjanvirta R, Okey AB. Patterns of dioxin-altered mRNA expression in livers of dioxin-sensitive versus dioxin-resistant rats. Arch Toxicol. 2008 Nov;82(11):809-30. Epub 2008 May 9. Erratum in: Arch Toxicol. 2008 Nov;82(11):831. [6]
20. Marko Tainio, Mikhail Sofiev, Mika Hujo, Jouni T. Tuomisto, Miranda Loh, Matti J. Jantunen, Ari Karppinen, Leena Kangas, Niko Karvosenoja, Kaarle Kupiainen, Petri Porvari, Jaakko Kukkonen: Evaluation of the European population intake fractions for European and Finnish anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter emissions. Atmospheric Environment 43 (2009) 3052–3059.
21. Marko Tainio, Niko Karvosenoja, Petri Porvari, Arjen Raateland, Jouni T. Tuomisto, Matti Johansson, Jaakko Kukkonen, Kaarle Kupiainen: A simple concept for GIS-based estimation of population exposure to primary fine particles from vehicular traffic and domestic wood combustion. Boreal Environment Research 14 (2009): 850-860.
22. Sand S, Fletcher N, von Rosen D, Kalantari F, Viluksela M, Tuomisto JT, Tuomisto J, Falk-Filipsson A, Håkansson H. Quantitative and statistical analysis of differences in sensitivity between Long-Evans and Han/Wistar rats following long-term exposure to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin. Regul Toxicol Pharmacol. 2010 Jul-Aug;57(2-3):136-45. Epub 2010 Feb 4. [7]
23. Herlin M, Kalantari F, Stern N, Sand S, Larsson S, Viluksela M, Tuomisto JT, Tuomisto J, Tuukkanen J, Jämsä T, Lind PM, Håkansson H. Quantitative characterization of changes in bone geometry, mineral density and biomechanical properties in two rat strains with different Ah-receptor structures after long-term exposure to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin. Toxicology. 2010 Jun 29;273(1-3):1-11. Epub 2010 Apr 18. [8]
24. Hirvonen T, Sinkko H, Hallikainen A, Kiviranta H, Pietinen P, Valsta L, Tuomisto JT. Modelling the intake of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans: impact of energy under-reporting and number of reporting days in dietary surveys. Food Addit Contam Part A Chem Anal Control Expo Risk Assess. 2010 Aug;27(8):1170-6. [9]
25. Tainio, M (Tainio, M.); Tuomisto, JT (Tuomisto, J. T.); Pekkanen, J (Pekkanen, J.); Karvosenoja, N (Karvosenoja, N.); Kupiainen, K (Kupiainen, K.); Porvari, P (Porvari, P.); Sofiev, M (Sofiev, M.); Karppinen, A (Karppinen, A.); Kangas, L (Kangas, L.); Kukkonen, J (Kukkonen, J.): Uncertainty in health risks due to anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter from different source types in Finland. ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 2010: 44 (17): 2125-2132 doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.02.036
26. Lensu S, Tuomisto JT, Tuomisto J, Pohjanvirta R. Characterization of the 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD)-provoked strong and rapid aversion to unfamiliar foodstuffs in rats. Toxicology. 2011 May 10;283(2-3):140-50. Epub 2011 Mar 22. [10]
27. Lensu S, Tuomisto JT, Tuomisto J, Viluksela M, Niittynen M, Pohjanvirta R. Immediate and highly sensitive aversion response to a novel food item linked to AH receptor stimulation. Toxicol Lett. 2011 Jun 24;203(3):252-7. Epub 2011 Mar 31. [11]
28. Pohjola MV, Tuomisto JT. Openness in participation, assessment, and policy making upon issues of environment and environmental health: a review of literature and recent project results. Environ Health. 2011 Jun 16;10:58. [12]
29. Verhagen H, Tijhuis MJ, Gunnlaugsdottir H, Kalogeras N, Leino O, Luteijn JM, Magnússon SH, Odekerken G, Pohjola MV, Tuomisto JT, Ueland O, White BC, Holm F. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: Introduction. Food Chem Toxicol. 2011 Jun 12. [Epub ahead of print] [13]
30. Magnússon SH, Gunnlaugsdóttir H, van Loveren H, Holm F, Kalogeras N, Leino O, Luteijn JM, Odekerken G, Pohjola MV, Tijhuis MJ, Tuomisto JT, Ueland O, White BC, Verhagen H. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: Food microbiology. Food Chem Toxicol. 2011 Jun 12. [Epub ahead of print] [14]
31. Tijhuis MJ, de Jong N, Pohjola MV, Gunnlaugsdóttir H, Hendriksen M, Hoekstra J, Holm F, Kalogeras N, Leino O, van Leeuwen FX, Luteijn JM, Magnússon SH, Odekerken G, Rompelberg C, Tuomisto JT, Ueland O, White BC, Verhagen H. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: Food and nutrition. Food Chem Toxicol. 2011 Jun 12. [Epub ahead of print] [15]
32. Ueland O, Gunnlaugsdottir H, Holm F, Kalogeras N, Leino O, Luteijn JM, Magnússon SH, Odekerken G, Pohjola MV, Tijhuis MJ, Tuomisto JT, White BC, Verhagen H. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: Consumer perception. Food Chem Toxicol. 2011 Jun 12. [Epub ahead of print] [16]
33. Luteijn JM, White BC, Gunnlaugsdóttir H, Holm F, Kalogeras N, Leino O, Magnússon SH, Odekerken G, Pohjola MV, Tijhuis MJ, Tuomisto JT, Ueland O, McCarron PA, Verhagen H. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: Medicines. Food Chem Toxicol. 2011 Jun 12. [Epub ahead of print] [17]
34. Pohjola MV, Leino O, Kollanus V, Tuomisto JT, Gunnlaugsdóttir H, Holm F, Kalogeras N, Luteijn JM, Magnússon SH, Odekerken G, Tijhuis MJ, Ueland O, White BC, Verhagen H. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: Environmental health. Food Chem Toxicol. 2011 Jun 12. [Epub ahead of print] [18]
35. Leino O, Karjalainen AK, Tuomisto JT. Effects of docosahexaenoic acid and methylmercury on child's brain development due to consumption of fish by Finnish mother during pregnancy: A probabilistic modeling approach. Food Chem Toxicol. 2011 Jun 23. [Epub ahead of print] [19]
36. Kalogeras N, Odekerken-Schröder G, Pennings JM, Gunnlaugsdottir H, Holm F, Leino O, Luteijn JM, Magnússon SH, Pohjola MV, Tijhuis MJ, Tuomisto JT, Ueland O, White BC, Verhagen H. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: Economics and Marketing-Finance. Food Chem Toxicol. 2011 Aug 18. [Epub ahead of print] [20]

Other publications

Unpublished:

1. Ahtoniemi P, Tainio M, Karvosenoja N, Kupiainen K, Porvari P, Karppinen A, Kangas L, Kukkonen J, Tuomisto JT. Evaluation of intake fractions for different subpopulations due to primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emitted from domestic wood combustion and traffic. AirQ. Atm. Health. Submitted.

Personnel funded by the grant only before 2008:

• Marja-Leena Hannila, M.Sc.
• Maria Rusanen, M.Sc.
• Anna Karjalainen, Ph.D.