Heat exposure in Europe
| Moderator:Virpi Kollanus (see all) |
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Scope
What is the location-specific daily heat exposure in Europe?
Heat exposure is defined as the location-specific daily maximum apparent temperature (AT) (i.e. humidity-adjusted temperature) above an area-specific threshold value.
Definition
Data
Dependencies
- Ambient air temperature in Europe
- Ambient air dew point temperature in Europe
- Urban heat island effect in Europe
- European climate scenarios
- Apparent temperature threshold for the ERF for heat exposure and mortality:
- Mediterranean region: 29.4 (95% Cl 25.7-32.4)
- North-continental region: 23.3 (95% Cl 22.5-24.0)
Unit
°C
Formula
Heat exposure = Maximum daily apparent temperature - apparent temperature threshold Apparent temperature (AT) = -2.653 + 0.994 Temp + 0.0153 (Dew)2 *Temp = air temperature *Dew = dew point temperature
Result
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Average daily maximum apparent temperature, no. of days when temperature threshold is exceeded, the average exceedance on these days, and the heat sum (95% confidence limits) in April-September averaged over all large metropolitan areas in Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and United Kingdom. Temperature threshold: 23.3°C (22.5-24.0).
| Climate scenario & year | Averge daily max AT (°C) | No. days above threshold | Average threshold exceedance (°C) | Heat sum (°C) |
| 2010 | 16.9 | 27 (23-32) | 4.0 (4.0-4.2) | 107 (90-130) |
| A1B | ||||
| 2020 | 17.7 | 31 (27-34) | 4.8 (4.7-5.1) | 147 (127-172) |
| 2030 | 19.2 | 43 (38-49) | 4.6 (4.4-4.7) | 194 (166-230) |
| 2050 | 20.5 | 63 (57-70) | 5.2 (5.0-5.4) | 323 (281-375) |
| B1 | ||||
| 2020 | 17.9 | 32 (28-37) | 4.6 (4.5-4.7) | 146 (126-174) |
| 2030 | 17.5 | 35 (32-40) | 5.2 (5.1-5.4) | 182 (159-212) |
| 2050 | 18.1 | 27 (23-32) | 4.5 (4.5-4.5) | 120 (102-143) |
Average daily maximum apparent temperature, no. of days when temperature threshold is exceeded, the average exceedance on these days, and the heat sum (95% confidence limits) in April-September averaged over all large metropolitan areas in Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain. Temperature threshold: 29.4°C (95% CI 25.7-32.4).
| Climate scenario & year | Averge daily max AT (°C) | No. days above threshold | Average threshold exceedance (°C) | Heat sum (°C) |
| 2010 | 24.2 | 51 (29-79) | 4.5 (3.5-5.8) | 222 (103-458) |
| A1B | ||||
| 2020 | 24.4 | 50 (31-80) | 4.6 (3.6-5.8) | 227 (109-465) |
| 2030 | 25.7 | 72 (43-101) | 4.5 (3.4-6.3) | 312 (145-631) |
| 2050 | 26.5 | 75 (48-103) | 5.1 (3.9-6.8) | 373 (191-702) |
| B1 | ||||
| 2020 | 25.1 | 58 (33-88) | 4.2 (3.2-5.7) | 238 (106-505) |
| 2030 | 25.3 | 65 (39-94) | 4.6 (3.5-6.2) | 288 (136-580) |
| 2050 | 25.8 | 66 (44-92) | 5.2 (4.1-6.8) | 340 (177-630) |
The results are based on air temperature and dew point data modelled with Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Regional Model (REMO). Geographical location of large cities was determined based on EMEP grid level data on total population. If the population density within a grid cell surpassed 200 per square kilometre (i.e. 500000 within a 50 km x 50 km grid cell), the grid cell was considered to include a densely populated metropolitan area.