CLAIH assessment

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Climate change, air quality and housing – future challenges to public health (CLAIH)

 CLAIH analytica model

Scope

Purpose

The purpose of the assessment is to evaluate the health impacts and costs in Finland in the future if different housing policies are undertaken.

More specifically:

• What would be the health effects and costs in Finland in 2030 if the society preferred different household heating systems, building energy efficiency solutions and fuels for district heat production?

• How would the health effects from housing compare to health effects from other sources of PM2.5, e.g. traffic?

• What would be the optimal combination of household heating systems, building energy efficiency and fuels for district heating?

• What would be the amount of societal subsidies needed to ensure the transition to the preferred heating systems and energy efficiency in housing?

Preference of different decisions on household heating and energy efficiency is assessed from the perspective of a household. Total health impacts and societal costs of different decision options are assessed for the whole of Finland, and the optimal distribution of societal subsidies for different heating systems and energy efficiency are evaluated based on these.

Boundaries

• Population: Finland
• Time:
  • 2009 (used as a reference)
  • Year 2030
• Exposures:
  • Fine particles
  • O3 (?)
  • Temperature extremes
  • Indoor pollution (what indoor contaminants should be included?)
    • Dampness and mold
    • Fireplace combustion and tobacco smoke products
    • Other pollutants
    • Air change
• Health effects:
  • Cardiovascular mortality and morbidity due to long term exposure to fine particles
  • Asthma incidence due to long term exposure to fine particles
  • Cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and morbidity due to exposure to O3 (?) and temperature extremes
  • Development of asthma and allergies and occurrence of respiratory infections in relation to indoor pollution
• Decisions to be evaluated:
  • Fuel for district heating
    • BAU
    • Oil
    • Peat
    • Coal
    • Wood chip
    • Geothermal heat
  • Household heating system
    • BAU
    • District heating
    • Oil
    • Pellet
  • Improving house energy efficiency
    • BAU
    • Improved insulation
    • Heat exchange (air, water)
    • Lower indoor temperature

Scenarios

• Climate change (temperature) scenarios based on IPCC
  • A1 (heterogeneous world, rising population, slow technological change)
  • A1B (rapid growth of world economy and population, advent new and more efficient technologies, balanced use of fossil and renewable energy sources)
  • B1 (rapid development towards environmentally friendly technologies)

Intended users

• Ministry of the Environment

Participants

• FMI
• University of Oulu
• THL
• Anyone interested

Definition

Variables

Draft of variables related to PM2.5 emissions and health effects:

Decisions:

Society:

• Fuel for district heat production (oil, peat, coal, wood chip, geothermal heat)

Citizen:

• Household heating system (district heating, oil, pellets)
• Building energy efficiency (energy class and technique)

House stock

• Heating systems in buildings in Finland
• Energy efficiency of buildings in Finland
• Energy used for heating per building
• Heating system renovations in house stock in Finland
• Energy efficiency renovations in house stock in Finland
• New house stock production in Finland
• Energy needed for heating buildings in Finland

Emissions

• PM2.5 emissions from house stock heating in Finland
• CO2 emissions from house stock heating in Finland

Exposure

• Exposure to PM2.5 in Finland
• Exposure to heat in Finland

Exposure-response functions

PM2.5

• ERF of PM2.5 on mortality in general population
  • Long-term PM2.5 exposure and cardiovascular mortality in Finland
• ERF for PM2.5 exposure and morbidity
  • Long-term PM2.5 exposure and cardiovascular morbidity in Finland
  • Long-term PM2.5 exposure and asthma incidence in Finland

heat

• ERF for heat exposure and mortality

Health effects

Background information

• Population of Finland
• Mortality in Finland
• Morbidity in Finland
• DALY weights
• Duration of morbidity

Health effect indicators

• Mortality due to PM2.5 exposure in Finland
• Morbidity due to PM2.5 exposure in Finland
• Loss of life-expectancy due to PM2.5 exposure in Finland
• Loss of disability adjusted life years due to PM2.5 exposure in Finland

Costs

Citizen:

• Cost from household heating

Society

• Costs from health effects of PM2.5 exposure in Finland
• Costs from indirect health effects of CO2 emissions in Finland
• Costs to citizens from household heating

Analyses

• Value-of-information analysis

Result

See also

• Assessment on impacts of emission trading on city-level (ET-CL)
• Bioher (project) and the Bioher assessment
• IPCC Special Report: Emission Scenarios