Heat exposure in Europe: Difference between revisions
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*[[Urban heat island effect in Europe]] | *[[Urban heat island effect in Europe]] | ||
*[[European climate scenarios]] | *[[European climate scenarios]] | ||
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=== Unit === | === Unit === | ||
Revision as of 14:48, 23 March 2011
| Moderator:Virpi Kollanus (see all) |
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Scope
What is the location-specific daily heat exposure in Europe?
Heat exposure is defined as the location-specific daily maximum apparent temperature (AT) (i.e. humidity-adjusted temperature) above an area-specific threshold value.
Definition
Data
Dependencies
- Ambient air temperature in Europe
- Ambient air dew point temperature in Europe
- Urban heat island effect in Europe
- European climate scenarios
- ERF for heat exposure and mortality
Unit
°C
Formula
Heat exposure = Maximum daily apparent temperature - apparent temperature threshold Apparent temperature (AT) = -2.653 + 0.994 Temp + 0.0153 (Dew)2 *Temp = air temperature *Dew = dew point temperature
Result
{{#opasnet_base_link:Op_en4603}}
Heat exposure estimates for densely populated metropolitan areas in Europe
Exposure estimates are based on air temperature and dew point data modelled with Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Regional Model (REMO). Geographical location of large cities was determined based on EMEP grid level data on total population. If the population density within a grid cell surpassed 200 per square kilometre (i.e. 500000 within a 50 km x 50 km grid cell), the grid cell was considered to include a densely populated metropolitan area. These estimates were used in the assessment Health impacts of urban heat island mitigation in Europe.
Average daily maximum apparent temperature, no. of days when temperature threshold is exceeded, the average exceedance on these days, and the heat sum (95% confidence limits) in April-September averaged over all large metropolitan areas
| Climate scenario & year | Averge daily max AT (°C) | No. days above threshold | Average threshold exceedance (°C) | Heat sum (°C) |
| North continental region region | ||||
| 2010 | 16.9 | 27 (23-32) | 4.0 (4.0-4.2) | 107 (90-130) |
| A1B | ||||
| 2020 | 17.7 | 31 (27-34) | 4.8 (4.7-5.1) | 147 (127-172) |
| 2030 | 19.2 | 43 (38-49) | 4.6 (4.4-4.7) | 194 (166-230) |
| 2050 | 20.5 | 63 (57-70) | 5.2 (5.0-5.4) | 323 (281-375) |
| B1 | ||||
| 2020 | 17.9 | 32 (28-37) | 4.6 (4.5-4.7) | 146 (126-174) |
| 2030 | 17.5 | 35 (32-40) | 5.2 (5.1-5.4) | 182 (159-212) |
| 2050 | 18.1 | 27 (23-32) | 4.5 (4.5-4.5) | 120 (102-143) |
| Mediterranean region | ||||
| 2010 | 24.2 | 51 (29-79) | 4.5 (3.5-5.8) | 222 (103-458) |
| A1B | ||||
| 2020 | 24.4 | 50 (31-80) | 4.6 (3.6-5.8) | 227 (109-465) |
| 2030 | 25.7 | 72 (43-101) | 4.5 (3.4-6.3) | 312 (145-631) |
| 2050 | 26.5 | 75 (48-103) | 5.1 (3.9-6.8) | 373 (191-702) |
| B1 | ||||
| 2020 | 25.1 | 58 (33-88) | 4.2 (3.2-5.7) | 238 (106-505) |
| 2030 | 25.3 | 65 (39-94) | 4.6 (3.5-6.2) | 288 (136-580) |
| 2050 | 25.8 | 66 (44-92) | 5.2 (4.1-6.8) | 340 (177-630) |
North-continental region:
- Includes Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and United Kingdom.
- Temperature threshold: 23.3°C (22.5-24.0)
Mediterranean region:
- Includes Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain.
- Temperature threshold: 29.4°C (95% CI 25.7-32.4)