Internal meeting of WP2, WP3, WP5 and WP6 May 2016, Helsinki

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Place: Ympäristötalo, University of Helsinki

Time: May 10th 2016

Participants: UH: Päivi Haapasaari, Inari Helle and Suvi Ignatius THL: Arja Asikainen and Jouni Tuomisto UOul: Mia Pihlajamäki

The aim of the meeting was to present the selected approach for scenario building in WP 3 and to discuss its implications and suitability for the decision support model (WP6) and the dioxin model (WP5). The idea is to build general scenarios to 2040 on existing literature including global and regional scenarios and then to link these to the models by using literature, consumer questionnaire and stakeholder consultations (e.g. workshop and/or interviews).

The scenarios are build following six interrelated steps (based on Wade 2012):

  1. framing the challenge: possible futures for the use of Baltic herring and salmon in 2040
  2. gathering information: list of relevant global and regional trends identified based on literature review
  3. identifying driving forces: STEEPV framework to identify global and regional driving forces (STEEPV: Societal, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, Values)
  4. defining the future's critical either/or uncertainties: policy integration and human impact
  5. generating the scenarios: based on the key uncertainties four scenarios are developed
  6. fleshing them out and creating storylines: based on information gathered in steps 2-4.

It was agreed that building of the general scenarios will be continued as planned and another internal meeting is arranged to discuss the linkage between the scenarios and the model further. The next meeting takes place in Viikki on June 15th from 9 am to 4 pm.