SCENES
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SCENES is a European-wide transport forecasting model. It is a network based model of all movements on all transport modes for both passengers and freights, and it also includes intermodal transports.
It simulates combined freight and the passenger traffic in and between the EU15 countries, as well as to several external regions. Demand is derived from prices and economic activity through Input-Output tables. Links between regions are explicitly modelled; economic trades are translated in freight traffic flows according to the unitary values of goods. The modal split and assignment to the network is performed on the basis of generalised transport costs.[1]
Result
Typical Model Applications:
- Simulation of the effects of regional economy on transport
- Analysis of alternative transport policy scenarios concerning supply development, costs of transport, regulatory policies (e.g. road speed limits, vehicle emission limits, different truck load factors, liberalisation reforms for some transport sectors etc.) with respect to traffic volumes, modal split, emissions.[1]
Model structure:
SCENES consists of three modules:
- The Regional Economic Module produces the matrix of economic trades between geographical areas or zones (based on regional Input-Output tables). Each sector in each region requires a certain amount of inputs from all other sectors. The inputs required can be purchased from any zone: the distribution of the origins is ruled by a Logit mechanism where the cost of production and the disutility of transport from each zone are explanatory variables.
- The interface model translates the economic trades in freight traffic flows according to the unitary values of goods.
- The transport module performs the modal split and assignment to the network on the basis of generalised costs by means of Logit algorithms. The number of passenger trips to be assigned and split is determined by means of trip generation rates applied to a segmentation of population (20 socio-economic groups per zone) according to employment status and car ownership.
SCENES uses detailed transport networks and includes a detailed representation of road, rail, air, sea, inland waterway and pipeline. About 5000 road links and 2000 rail links are captured. Besides, about 80 ports throughout Europe, the main product pipelines and direct connections among the main airports are represented. A `dummy zone' system is used in order to include all intra-zonal passenger trips. Network supply characteristics are the travel time (including congestion), monetary cost (vehicle operating cost, user tariff), and distance.[1]
Sectoral coverage:
The regional economic module includes 44 factors 23 of which give rise to freight traffic. The transport module uses 13 different flows for the modal split and four handling categories used in the assignment phase (11 freight modes, 6 passenger modes).
Dynamic structure:
- Static, snapshot model
- The SCENES model works with three time steps. 1995 is the base year, 2010 and 2020 are the forecast years. Changes on the transport side have effects on the regional economy with a time lag.
Linkage between regions and countries:
There is an explicit link between regions via Origin/Destination matrices at the NUTS2 zoning level (estimation is based on Input-Output tables).[1]
Main Model Results:
Economic results:
- Costs and times of travel by all different modes, for passenger and freight traffic
- Annual transport flows
- Fuel consumption and atmospheric emissions by mode and model region.
Required technical infrastructure:
No information available[1]
Structure of Input Data:
Exogenous variables and parameters:
- Macroeconomic variables (such as population size and segmentation, value of production by sector and by country etc.) are exogenous
- EUROSTAT data
Base year data:
- 1995
Model Extensions:
--
Links to other Models, Projects, Networks:
TIPMAC project (DG-TREN): To combine SCENES transport network model with E3ME macro-econometric model
MC-ICAM project: To analyse impacts of socially optimum pricing
IASON: To estimate wider economic benefits of transport initiatives
SPECTRUM: To analyse the transport impacts of combinations of policy measures
Regional Scope:
The SCENES model works with a geographical breakdown of 256 zones based on the NUTS2 system. 205 zones are in EU15 countries, other zones represent Eastern European countries and the rest of the world. [1]
See also
References
See [2] ME&P (2002), Final Report, SCENES European Transport Scenarios ST 97-RS-2277. Köhler, J., Pollitt, H., Raha, N., Cuthbertson, P. (2004), TIPMAC Transport infrastructure and policy: a macroeconomic analysis for the EU. Deliverable 4: Results of the combined SCENES/E3ME model system analysis, Version 2.0. Williams, I., Martino, A. (2004), The SCENES model in TREMOVE, Presentation at TREMOVE Contact Group meeting - Transport demand, Leuven, 27 May 2004.