Case burden of waterborne microbes

Scope

What are the case burdens (in DALYs) of waterborne microbes?

Answer

The case burdens are presented as DALYs per infected individual. These include both those who get ill with the disease as well as those carrying the pathogen.

Case burdens of waterborne microbes(DALY)

Obs	Response	Resp	Subgroup	Result	Description
1	Giardia infection		Age:Age 0-4	0.002425060273973
2	Giardia infection		Age:Age 5-9	0.002732458082192
3	Giardia infection		Age:Age 10-14	0.004313122191781
4	Giardia infection		Age:Age 15-64	0.002572193972603
5	Giardia infection		Age:Age 65-81	0.006244547945205
6	Crytposporidium infection		Age:Age 0-4	0.001712650437478
7	Crytposporidium infection		Age:Age 5-9	0.002801479147212
8	Crytposporidium infection		Age:Age 10-14	0.004051679355586
9	Crytposporidium infection		Age:Age 15-64	0.001152631568397
10	Crytposporidium infection		Age:Age 65-81	0.001653956357322
11	Crytposporidium infection	Death	Age:Age 0-4	5.580955E-05
12	Crytposporidium infection	Death	Age:Age 5-14	0
13	Crytposporidium infection	Death	Age:Age 15-64	0.0006158185
14	Crytposporidium infection	Death	Age:Age 65-81	0.0093152
15	Norovirus infection		Age:Age 0-4	0.000691774334858
16	Norovirus infection		Age:Age 5-9	0.000527168738082
17	Norovirus infection		Age:Age 10-14	0.000558226165288
18	Norovirus infection		Age:Age 15-65	0.000550474210904
19	Norovirus infection		Age:Age 66-81	0.000516198506945
20	Norovirus infection	Death	Age:Age 0-4	0.000162582
21	Norovirus infection	Death	Age:Age 5-65	0
22	Norovirus infection	Death	Age:Age 66-81	0.00126
23	Rotavirus infection		Age:Age 0-4	0.001916785134247
24	Rotavirus infection		Age:Age 5-9	0.001095840616438
25	Rotavirus infection		Age:Age 11-14	0.001120609306849
26	Rotavirus infection		Age:Age 15-64	0.000888790216438
27	Rotavirus infection		Age:Age 65-81	0.000990939378082
28	Rotavirus infection	Death	Age:Age 0-4	0.00151443
29	Rotavirus infection	Death	Age:Age 5-81	0
30	Campylobacter infection	Gastroenteritis		0.000973080317997
31	Campylobacter infection	Clinical GBS		1.914E-05
32	Campylobacter infection	Residual GBS		0.0003828
33	Campylobacter infection	Reactive arthritis		0.000159923076923
34	Campylobacter infection	Death		0.001740464
35	E. coli infection	Watery diarrhea		0.000272784522327
36	E. coli infection	HC		0.002319212951432
37	E. coli infection	Haemolytic uraemic syndrome		0.000441257783313
38	E. coli infection	End stage renal disease		0.008466116883117
39	E. coli infection	Death		0.007231309402597

Rationale

Data

Data for Giardia used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 1.

treatment	age	probability of needing the treatment if ill	duration	severity
untreated	0-4	0.9375	0.027397260273973	0.067
untreated	5-9	0.91034	0.027397260273973	0.067
untreated	10-14	0.72642	0.027397260273973	0.067
untreated	15-64	0.92486	0.027397260273973	0.067
untreated	65-81	0.5365	0.027397260273973	0.067
general practitioner	0-4	0.0609	0.027397260273973	0.393
general practitioner	5-9	0.0852	0.027397260273973	0.393
general practitioner	10-14	0.272	0.027397260273973	0.393
general practitioner	15-64	0.0721	0.027397260273973	0.393
general practitioner	65-81	0.451	0.027397260273973	0.393
hospitalised	0-4	0.0015	0.082191780821918	0.393
hospitalised	5-9	0.00446	0.082191780821918	0.393
hospitalised	10-14	0.00158	0.082191780821918	0.393
hospitalised	15-64	0.00304	0.082191780821918	0.393
hospitalised	65-81	0.0125	0.082191780821918	0.393

Data for Cryptosporidium used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.71.

treatment	age	probability of needing the treatment if ill	duration	severity
untreated	0-4	0.917573005	0.00958904109589	0.067
untreated	5-9	0.80937	0.00958904109589	0.067
untreated	10-14	0.68105	0.00958904109589	0.067
untreated	15-64	0.9774191	0.00958904109589	0.067
untreated	65-81	0.94706	0.00958904109589	0.067
general practitioner	0-4	0.082	0.019178082191781	0.393
general practitioner	5-9	0.188	0.019178082191781	0.393
general practitioner	10-14	0.316	0.019178082191781	0.393
general practitioner	15-64	0.0209	0.019178082191781	0.393
general practitioner	65-81	0.0367	0.019178082191781	0.393
hospitalised	0-4	0.000426	0.05041095890411	0.393
hospitalised	5-9	0.00263	0.05041095890411	0.393
hospitalised	10-14	0.0029	0.05041095890411	0.393
hospitalised	15-64	0.00166	0.05041095890411	0.393
hospitalised	65-81	0.0146	0.05041095890411	0.393

Probability of death, if ill with Cryptosporidium.

age	probability
0-4	9.95E-07
5-14	0
15-64	2.09E-05
65-81	0.00164

Data for norovirus used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.7.

treatment	age	probability of needing the treatment if ill	duration	severity
untreated	0-4	0.94876706	0.01041095890411	0.067
untreated	5-9	0.9902	0.01041095890411	0.067
untreated	10-14	0.98239	0.01041095890411	0.067
untreated	15-65	0.98434	0.01041095890411	0.067
untreated	66-81	0.992741	0.01041095890411	0.067
general practitioner	0-4	0.0448	0.015698630136986	0.393
general practitioner	5-9	0.0086	0.015698630136986	0.393
general practitioner	10-14	0.0154	0.015698630136986	0.393
general practitioner	15-65	0.0137	0.015698630136986	0.393
general practitioner	66-81	0.00617	0.015698630136986	0.393
hospitalized	0-4	0.00643	0.019808219178082	0.393
hospitalized	5-9	0.0012	0.019808219178082	0.393
hospitalized	10-14	0.00221	0.019808219178082	0.393
hospitalized	15-65	0.00196	0.019808219178082	0.393
hospitalized	66-81	0.000885	0.019808219178082	0.393

Probability of death if ill with norovirus

age	probability
0-4	2.94E-06
5-65	0
66-81	0.00024

The data for rotavirus used in the calculations. The probability of illness if infected is 0.9. The probability of death from being ill with rotavirus is 2.13E-05 for 0-4-year-olds and 0 for everyone else.

treatment	age	probability of needing the treatment if ill	duration	severity
untreated	0-4	0.82	0.013424657534247	0.067
untreated	5-14	0.95	0.013424657534247	0.067
untreated	15-64	0.99	0.013424657534247	0.067
untreated	65-81	0.97	0.013424657534247	0.067
general practitioner	0-4	0.137	0.019452054794521	0.393
general practitioner	5-9	0.0244	0.019452054794521	0.393
general practitioner	11-14	0.0511	0.019452054794521	0.393
general practitioner	15-64	0.0127	0.019452054794521	0.393
general practitioner	65-81	0.0299	0.019452054794521	0.393
hospitalized	0-4	0.0416	0.021095890410959	0.393
hospitalized	5-9	0.0213	0.021095890410959	0.393
hospitalized	10-81	0	0.021095890410959	0.393