Gasbus - health impacts of Helsinki bus traffic
This is the main page of the Gasbus assessment. The output of the group work exercise in Kuopio Risk Assessment Workshop 2008 will be collected on this page complemented with the indicator and other variable pages that will be created during the exercise.
Background material:
- An article about the assessment, published in Risk Analysis 2004, can be found here: Media:Tainio Gasbus RiskAnalysis 2004.pdf
- Download the model used in the assessment as an Analytica file from here: File:Gasbus model 01.ANA
- If you do not have Analytica installed in your computer, you can get a free trial of Analytica or a free Analytica player for viewing the model from Lumina Decision Systems website
Scope
Purpose
To compare PM2.5 induced mortality in alternative public bus-transportation strategies as being considered by the Helsinki Metropolitan area.
Boundaries
- Area: Helsinki Metropolitan area, Finland
- Population: whole population in Helsinki area (1 million)
- Primary PM2.5
- Time period: Based on data 1996-1997, projected to year 2020
- Public Health effects: Mortality due to cardiopulmonary diseases, lung cancer and other non-accidental causes (?)
- Bus traffic tail-pipe emissions
- Different ratio between the technologies
- Fuel
Scenarios
- Business as usual (current bus fleet)
- All buses converted to modern diesel (EURO3-STD)
- All buses converted to diesel with particle traps
- All buses converted to natural gas buses
Intended users
- Helsinki Metropolitan area council
- Finnish government (e.g. Finnish ministry of social affairs and health)
- Scientific community
- Decision makers at local community level
Participants
- Scientists: KTL, YTV, Joint Research Centre @ European Commission
Definition
Decision variables
- Which bus engine?
Indicators
- Health impact à mortality rate
Other variables
- PM2.5 emission from bus traffic
- constant: Bus traffic intensity (if it remains the same)
- PM2.5 concentration of bus traffic in Helsinki area (= exposure and intake estimate)
- data: total conc. of PM2.5 exposure in Helsinki
- Concentration-response to PM2.5
- slope uncertain à variable
- background mortality included as a constant
- human behavior (if data available)