Hearing index for decision making
| [show] |
|---|
Question
How to measure the capability of a voting system, a decision making process, or a single decision to hear what the citizens have to say?
- The method should be able to compare different systems, processes, and decisions to each other and reveal their preference from a democratic point of view.
Answer
The method should answer this question:
What fraction of citizens had such a contribution that it participated in promoting the decision that was actually made? In other words: what is the maximum fraction of participants that theoretically could have stayed home (rather than contributed to the decision making process) and that would not have had any impact on the outcome?
The same question can also be asked hypothetically for a future decision, based on probabilities of different outcomes, given a particular decision process.
Let us call this measure the hearing index.
Rationale
If we compare different approaches in the US Presidential election in 2016, we can see that the hearing index was 32.2 %. This is a very low number. For example, in a two-phase presidential election, such as in Finland, hearing index may go below 50 % only if there is a substantial amount of empty votes. In the US, a popular vote would have had a hearing index of 47.8 % (and Hillary Clinton would have won).
In practice, the low hearing index means that any and all citizens in 20 states (including California and Washiington D.C.) could have stayed home on the election day, and it would not have had any impact whatsoever on the election result. Of course, it was not clear in advance, which states will fall into that category.
A ranking vote where voters rank the candidates would have had hearing index of 47.8 - 52.4 % depending on how the votes of the minor candidates would have distributed among the two major candidates.
Interestingly, the hearing index can also be used to evaluate decision processes after the election. If the elected president does what they have promised, the hearing index can be thought as high as in the election, even if the citizens have no say during the decision making. However, if the president does something that the citizens did not anticipate, the hearing index is 0.
The strentgh of the hearing index is that it answers an intuitive question, and its practical implications in a particular situation can be easily described. It can also be easily measured from different election or decision situations.
US Presidential election 2016
| State or district | Electoral method | Hillary Clinton Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Gary Johnson Libertarian | Jill Stein Green | Evan McMullin Independent | Total votes | Total electorates | Votes that affect electorates | Votes that affect president | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | Electoral votes | Votes | Electoral votes | Votes | Votes | Votes | ||||||||
| Whole country | ||||||||||||||
| 59940757 (47.77 %) | 232 | 59708917 (47.59 %) | 306 | 4155551 (3.31 %) | 1221847 (0.97 %) | 447285 (0.36 %) | 125474357 | 538 | 68681810 (54.7 %) | 40398862 (32.2 %) | ||||
| States and districts | ||||||||||||||
| Alabama | AL | WTA | 718084 | 1306925 | 9 | 43869 | 9287 | 2078165 | 9 | 1306925 | 1306925 | |||
| Alaska | AK | WTA | 93007 | 130415 | 3 | 14593 | 4445 | 242460 | 3 | 130415 | 130415 | |||
| Arizona | AZ | WTA | 888374 | 972900 | 11 | 75082 | 23697 | 1960053 | 11 | 972900 | 972900 | |||
| Arkansas | AR | WTA | 378632 | 681765 | 6 | 29593 | 9406 | 13180 | 1112576 | 6 | 681765 | 681765 | ||
| California | CA | WTA | 5488261 | 55 | 2969532 | 308392 | 152539 | 8918724 | 55 | 5488261 | 0 | |||
| Colorado | CO | WTA | 1126384 | 9 | 1075770 | 129128 | 29299 | 24679 | 2385260 | 9 | 1126384 | 0 | ||
| Connecticut | CT | WTA | 823360 | 7 | 637919 | 45999 | 21539 | 1481 | 1530298 | 7 | 823360 | 0 | ||
| Delaware | DE | WTA | 235581 | 3 | 185103 | 14751 | 5865 | 441300 | 3 | 235581 | 0 | |||
| D.C. | DC | WTA | 260223 | 3 | 11553 | 4501 | 3995 | 280272 | 3 | 260223 | 0 | |||
| Florida | FL | WTA | 4487657 | 4607146 | 29 | 206007 | 64060 | 9364870 | 29 | 4607146 | 4607146 | |||
| Georgia | GA | WTA | 1856509 | 2078064 | 16 | 123641 | 4058214 | 16 | 2078064 | 2078064 | ||||
| Hawaii | HI | WTA | 266827 | 4 | 128815 | 14854 | 12727 | 423223 | 4 | 266827 | 0 | |||
| Idaho | ID | WTA | 190971 | 412525 | 4 | 28256 | 8524 | 46702 | 686978 | 4 | 412525 | 412525 | ||
| Illinois | IL | WTA | 2982415 | 20 | 2121573 | 204491 | 74026 | 5382505 | 20 | 2982415 | 0 | |||
| Indiana | IN | WTA | 1024180 | 1544609 | 11 | 133856 | 1829 | 2704474 | 11 | 1544609 | 1544609 | |||
| Iowa | IA | WTA | 650780 | 798923 | 6 | 57322 | 11406 | 12264 | 1530695 | 6 | 798923 | 798923 | ||
| Kansas | KS | WTA | 414572 | 656470 | 6 | 53648 | 22717 | 1147407 | 6 | 656470 | 656470 | |||
| Kentucky | KY | WTA | 628834 | 1202942 | 8 | 53749 | 13913 | 22780 | 1922218 | 8 | 1202942 | 1202942 | ||
| Louisiana | LA | WTA | 779535 | 1178004 | 8 | 37950 | 14018 | 8546 | 2018053 | 8 | 1178004 | 1178004 | ||
| Maine | ME | CD | 352156 | 3 | 332418 | 1 | 37764 | 13995 | 736333 | 4 | 736333 | 332418 | ||
| Maryland | MD | WTA | 1502820 | 10 | 878615 | 71107 | 32019 | 2484561 | 10 | 1502820 | 0 | |||
| Massachusetts | MA | WTA | 1967667 | 11 | 1084400 | 136784 | 46931 | 3235782 | 11 | 1967667 | 0 | |||
| Michigan | MI | WTA | 2264807 | 2277914 | 16 | 173023 | 51420 | 4767164 | 16 | 2277914 | 2277914 | |||
| Minnesota | MN | WTA | 1364067 | 10 | 1321120 | 112944 | 36921 | 53028 | 2888080 | 10 | 1364067 | 0 | ||
| Mississippi | MS | WTA | 462127 | 678284 | 6 | 13789 | 3590 | 1157790 | 6 | 678284 | 678284 | |||
| Missouri | MO | WTA | 1054889 | 1585753 | 10 | 96404 | 25086 | 1372 | 2763504 | 10 | 1585753 | 1585753 | ||
| Montana | MT | WTA | 174281 | 273879 | 3 | 27264 | 7662 | 483086 | 3 | 273879 | 273879 | |||
| Nebraska | NE | CD | 273181 | 485326 | 5 | 37615 | 8335 | 804457 | 5 | 485326 | 485326 | |||
| Nevada | NV | WTA | 537753 | 6 | 511319 | 37299 | 1086371 | 6 | 537753 | 0 | ||||
| New Hampshire | NH | WTA | 348497 | 4 | 345810 | 30530 | 6377 | 731214 | 4 | 348497 | 0 | |||
| New Jersey | NJ | WTA | 1967444 | 14 | 1509688 | 68695 | 35305 | 3581132 | 14 | 1967444 | 0 | |||
| New Mexico | NM | WTA | 380923 | 5 | 316134 | 73699 | 9740 | 5722 | 786218 | 5 | 380923 | 0 | ||
| New York | NY | WTA | 4145376 | 29 | 2638135 | 161236 | 100033 | 7044780 | 29 | 4145376 | 0 | |||
| North Carolina | NC | WTA | 2162822 | 2339830 | 15 | 127794 | 590 | 4631036 | 15 | 2339830 | 2339830 | |||
| North Dakota | ND | WTA | 93526 | 216133 | 3 | 21351 | 3769 | 334779 | 3 | 216133 | 216133 | |||
| Ohio | OH | WTA | 2320596 | 2776683 | 18 | 168599 | 44278 | 5310156 | 18 | 2776683 | 2776683 | |||
| Oklahoma | OK | WTA | 419788 | 947934 | 7 | 83334 | 1451056 | 7 | 947934 | 947934 | ||||
| Oregon | OR | WTA | 949319 | 7 | 751438 | 86306 | 46510 | 1833573 | 7 | 949319 | 0 | |||
| Pennsylvania | PA | WTA | 2817409 | 2890633 | 20 | 142653 | 48588 | 5899283 | 20 | 2890633 | 2890633 | |||
| Rhode Island | RI | WTA | 227062 | 4 | 166454 | 14643 | 5763 | 413922 | 4 | 227062 | 0 | |||
| South Carolina | SC | WTA | 850629 | 1147045 | 9 | 48715 | 12945 | 20871 | 2080205 | 9 | 1147045 | 1147045 | ||
| South Dakota | SD | WTA | 117442 | 227701 | 3 | 20845 | 365988 | 3 | 227701 | 227701 | ||||
| Tennessee | TN | WTA | 868853 | 1519926 | 11 | 70084 | 15952 | 2474815 | 11 | 1519926 | 1519926 | |||
| Texas | TX | WTA | 3867816 | 4681590 | 38 | 282524 | 71307 | 20227 | 8923464 | 38 | 4681590 | 4681590 | ||
| Utah | UT | WTA | 222858 | 375006 | 6 | 29921 | 5484 | 163573 | 796842 | 6 | 375006 | 375006 | ||
| Vermont | VT | WTA | 178082 | 3 | 95114 | 10043 | 6727 | 289966 | 3 | 178082 | 0 | |||
| Virginia | VA | WTA | 1916148 | 13 | 1729932 | 116600 | 27248 | 52860 | 3842788 | 13 | 1916148 | 0 | ||
| Washington | WA | WTA | 1210824 | 12 | 831631 | 131779 | 30540 | 2204774 | 12 | 1210824 | 0 | |||
| West Virginia | WV | WTA | 187519 | 486304 | 5 | 22798 | 8016 | 704637 | 5 | 486304 | 486304 | |||
| Wisconsin | WI | WTA | 1383926 | 1411432 | 10 | 106442 | 30942 | 2932742 | 10 | 1411432 | 1411432 | |||
| Wyoming | WY | WTA | 55964 | 174383 | 3 | 13285 | 2482 | 246114 | 3 | 174383 | 174383 | |||
Electoral methods:
- WTA – Winner-takes-all
- CD – Congressional district