Darm exercise 3 J-P Männikkö
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Purpose
This analysis seeks to answer these questions:
How many times should action to reduce PM 2.5 by 2% be taken so that it would still be cost beneficial? Assumptions: cost of action 3 million euros, cost of death 1 million euros.
This analysis also seeks to address the following questions:
- Mean PM2.5 concentration in 2015 in all three decisions (BAU, Option 1, Option 2)
- Cost of health effects in all three scenarios
- Comparison of health effect costs to different decision costs.
- Sensitivity of the result to dose-response and to concentration uncertainties (thus, which uncertainty has more impact to the results).
- Reviewers are lazy people so report should be short. Both report and R-code are submitted to individual Wiki page in HEANDE.
Data
2015 PM2.5 levels 5.0 μg/m3 if BAU. Standard deviation of normal distribution 0.5.
Decision action would lower mean PM2.5 concentrations by 2 % and cost 3 000 000 euros, repeatable.
Dose-response data: Pope et al. 2002 epidemiological data. 10 ug/m3 change in PM 2.5 affects mortality by factor 1.06.
Background mortality is estimated to be 883 deaths per year in year 2015.
One death has economical value of 1 000 000 Euros.
Calculation
If dose-response factor to 10ug/m3 change in PM2.5 is 1,06, 5 ug/m3 PM2.5 level would result in (5/10)*(1,06-1) = 0,03 (3%) increase in mortality. Based on this it is possible to calculate the effect of 2% decrease in PM 2.5 level with the cost of 3 million euros and compare it to cost of 1 million euros per death. Calculation is presented in the following table:
| Scenario | PM 2.5 ug / m3, 2015 | Mortality | Background 2015 | Extra Deaths | Cost of deaths, me | Cost of reduction, me | Total cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAU | 5 | 0,03 | 883 | 26,5 | 26,5 | 0 | 26,5 |
| 1 | 4,9 | 0,0294 | 883 | 26 | 26,0 | 3 | 29,0 |
| 2 | 4,802 | 0,028812 | 883 | 25,4 | 25,4 | 6 | 31,4 |
Based on the calculations above, 3 million euros for a 2% reduction in PM 2.5 level would not be cost effective in any case compared to cost of 1 million euros per death.
←--1: . The calculations and conclusions are correct. The R code functionality is not a necessity, although we promote its use. --Jouni 10:19, 26 May 2011 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)
⇤--2: . Sensitivity analysis is missing about which uncertainty (about dose-response or about exposure) is more important. --Jouni 10:19, 26 May 2011 (EEST) (type: truth; paradigms: science: attack)
Score: 4/5.