Decision analysis and risk management

LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES

Decision analysis and risk management (DARM) is a course taught in the | University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Aims of the course

• To give a good overview of modern assessment methods by;
  • utilizing modern web-workspaces for learning, while;
  • avoiding overlaps with other courses in the ToxEn MSc program,

In the course:

The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment, and the role of risk management in a broader societal context. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment, and know how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.     

Course details

• Name: Decision analysis and risk management          
• Abbreviation: DARM
• ECTS-credits: 6
• Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
• Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
• Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
• Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): Yes

Contacts

• Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)          
• Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen     
• Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio     
• Contact Persons email: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi     
• Registration for the Course: Wossikka     

Teaching / Learning Methods

• Lectures and discussions 60 h
• Calculation exercises 9 h
• Independent assessment study
  • Decision analysis study (group work) 50 h
  • Risk management study (individual work) 40 h
• Web-Based Learning 30 %

Lectures

See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.

Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information. Even more can be found at: Decision analysis and risk management - background information.

Case study exercise

For the case study description and instructions, see the case study exercise page

Note! Self-organised group work requires on-line computers.

Evaluation

Whole course (6 ECTS)

The course grade consists of:

• Completion of classroom exercises (1/3)
• Case study exercise (2/3)
• Active participation in lectures and exercises is taken into account while deciding the overall course grades (e.g. rounding up)

Classroom exercise scoring

• Exercise 1: max. score 5 points
• Exercise 2: no scoring, completion yes/no
• Exercise 3: max. score 10 points
• Exercise 4: no scoring, completion yes/no

Total max. score from classroom exercises is 15 points. In addition students earn pluses from extraordinary performance and active participation. Missing exercises 1 or 3 count as 0 points. Missing exercises 2 or 4 count as minuses (thus counterbalancing pluses).

Case study exercise scoring

• Exercise part 1, DA study plan (group work): max. score 20 points
• Exercise part 2, RM analysis: max. score 10 points

In DA study plan exercise, all group members get the same score. The principles for evaluating the case study exercises are presented on the case study exercise page. With active commenting and discussion in Opasnet both within the group and in between groups and individuals groups and individuals can earn pluses.

Course grading

The below table presents the tentative guidelines for converting exercise scores into the course grade.

Course grade	Total score
0	<20
1	21-25
2	26-30
3	31-35
4	36-40
5	41-45

The pluses (and minuses) can influence the overall grade in cases where the total exercise scores are close to the limit values. E.g. 35 points from exercises and active participation may be interpreted as grade 4.

Partial accomplishments

For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course:

• Lectures and classroom exercises (3 ECTS)
• Case study exercise part 1: DA study plan (2 ECTS)
• Case study exercise part 2: RM analysis (1 ECTS)

Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale according to sufficient participation and fulfillment of required exercises.

Content and schedule

Schedule and contents of the course.

• Each row is a three-hour block of lectures, exercises, discussions, or organised group work.
• Changes in content are likely, but the dates and locations presented here are more or less fixed.
• Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.

Date	Time	Lecturer	Lecture room	Topics	Material
28.2.	10-13	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S22	Introduction to the course introduction to decision analysis: video , slides introduction to case study exercise and course evaluation: video, slides Introduction to the swine flu story: video, slides
3.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S31	Introduction to risk management Conventional perspectives to RM: video, slides Open risk management: video, slides	Framework for environmental health risk management An introduction to the IRGC risk governance framework Risk governance deficits - Policy brief State-of-the-art in environmental health assessment (manuscript)
3.3.	13-16	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S23	Swine flu story: risks and their management: video, slides whiteboard independent exploration Beginning of the pandemic preparedness in Finland and elsewhere mini-presentations and discussion summary
4.3.	9-12	Mikko, Marko	MC9	Introduction to using Opasnet Introduction to Opasnet Demonstration of structure, content and functionalities Exercises user accounts DA study plan page RM report page browsing and searching commenting and discussing	Category:DARM exercise#Introduction to working in Opasnet Opasnet Help:Contents
4.3.	13-16	Jouni, Marko	S24	Introduction to probability theory: video, Slides Subjective probability Practical exercise Bayesian rule video Importance of exhaustiveness (coverage)	Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics Lindley, a backup file
8.3.	9-12	Jouni	S22	Introduction to probability theory. video slides Bayes' rule. Updating probability. Examples: red balls, narcolepsy test. Decision analysis (continued). slides Measures of outcome: Utility, DALY, QALY, WTP
9.3.	9-12	Jouni	S22	Decision analysis (continued). slides; sorry, no video Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets. Swine flu case as a decision problem: what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case? Purpose of assessment: Why it is done
10.3.	9-12	Marko	S24	Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation: slides Computer modeling video Why? Approximation When data is not available Monte Carlo simulation When and why to use? Common uncertainty distributions video Normal distribution is not the only option Swine flu story (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
11.3.	8-11	Marko	MC9	Calculation exercise: slides Case: Mortality due to PM2.5 in Kuopio	Pope et al. 2002
16.3.	9-12	Jouni, Marko	S22	Probabilistic models video slides	Gibbs sampling Bayesian network Hierarchical Bayes model
17.3.	9-12	Jouni, Marko	MC4	Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R Open assessment quiz, heande:Calibration of a group Health impacts of PM in Kuopio Expert judgement no video slides	Tuomisto et al: PM expert elicitation
18.3.	13-16	Jouni	S24	Overall view of different models video, slides Why do we do modelling? Producing result from rationale. Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates. Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations. Other relations (neural networks). First drafts of DA study plans. Brief presentations by students of and discussions about the first DA study plan drafts.
21.3.	11-14	Jouni, Marko, Mikko	S24	Decision making under uncertainty Why decision analysis?: video, Slides Sensitivity analysis: Slides Value of information: video, Slides	Further information about sensitivity analysis (Frey et al. 2004) Value of information Value of information analysis
22.3.	9-12	Mikko, Marko, Jouni	S24	Decision-making under uncertainty (continued). Assessment performance: video, Slides quality assurance/quality control uncertainty model performance information in use → heande:Purpose and properties of good assessments
25.3.	9-12	Marko	MC9	Calculation exercise. Link to exercise page
29.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	S4069	Full drafts of DA study plans. Brief info about updated course evaluation principles A couple of words about the sensitivity analysis calculation exercise held on 25.3. DA study plan presentations by groups and discussions about them
30.3.	9-12	Mikko, Jouni	S24	Risk management: State-of-the-art? lecture perspectives to assessment and management tendencies in EHA and EHRM What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? RM in reality vs. (institutional) RM frameworks contemporary challenges in assessment-management interaction discussion (→ RM analysis exercise): assessment and management in the swine flu case questions, actors, roles in swine flu case RM?
31.3.	9-12	Mikko, Jouni	S23	Risk management: a social learning perspective lecture participation in assessment and management dimensions of openness science and collective learning pragmatism, abduction and trialogical approach assessments as collaborative information production projects discussion (:→ RM analysis exercise) role of public in swine flu case RM? dimensions of openness -analysis of the swine flu case RM citizen participation perspective	Inference rules Scientific method Falsification Justified true belief Shared belief system
1.4.	9-12	Mikko, Jouni	9-10: MC9 10-12: S21	Risk management: facilitation of (open) risk management lecture models and information systems supporting assessment and management pragmatic knowledge services from an information society towards a knowledge society exercise: Discussion and structured argumentation in Opasnet argumentation analysis on some swine flu case related texts	Argumentation Pragma-dialectics argumentation theory.
7.4.	13-16	Mikko, Jouni	S4069	Risk management: from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action lecture concepts of evaluation and performance outcome-orientation in assessment and management management of management development risk management options and risk assessment questions ORM: open risk management roles of participants discussion: what drives assessment and analysis in the swine flu case? what drives management actions in the swine flu case? are knowledge, decision, and needs coherent in the swine flu case? performance of analysis and management in the swine flu case?
8.4.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	S22	Summary of decision analysis and risk management suggest topics to be presented and/or discussed topics can be some things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents
11.4.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	S24	Final seminar: Presentations (exercise parts one and two), discussions, and summary of perspectives to the case.
12.4.	8-11	Jouni, Mikko	S24	Final seminar (cont'd). Wrap-up and course feedback.

Help and guidance

Topic	Contact
General arrangements	User:Jouni, User:Mikko Pohjola
Case study exercises: content	User:Jouni
Case study exercises: technical	User:Teemu R
Calculation exercises	User:Marko

Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.

See also

Links to additional RM materials

• IRGC risk governance framework
• Risk governance deficits - Analysis and illustration
• Risk assessment and risk management in regulatory decision making
• International Risk Governance Council
• The National Academies Press (publisher of e.g. "red book", "orange book", and "silver book")

General information sources on AH1N1 influenza (Swine flu)

• Swine flu in Finland, page maintained by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (English)
• Swine flu in Finland, page maintained by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (Finnish)
• European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC),2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic
• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP), USA, information page on Swine flue
• Evolution of a pandemic, World Health Organization (WHO), 2009 (Report)
• WHO Pandemic page
• European Medicines Agency (EMA) information page on Swine flu
• EMA report on narcolepsy and possible association with Pandemrix vaccination

Links to information on specific topics

(current headings intended as first guidance, can be modified as seen reasonable)

Beginning and expansion of the global H1N1 Pandemic

• [1],[2]

Preparation, decision and promotion of H1N1 vaccination in Finland

• [3],[4],[5],[6],[7],[8],[9],[10]],[11]

Campaigning against H1N1 vaccination in Finland

• [12],[13]

The development of H1N1 influenza in Finland

• [14],[15],[16],[17]

Implementation of the vaccination campaign in Finland

• [18],[19],[20],[21],[22]

Suspected connections between THL and the producer Pandemrix vaccine (GlaxoSmithKline)

• [23],[24],[25],[26]

Pandemrix vaccine - composition, testing, alternatives etc.

• [27],[28],[29],[30]

Emergence of narcolepsy cases in Finland and elsewhere

• [31]

Suspected connections between Pandemrix vaccinations and narcolepsy

• [32],[33]

Halting of vaccination campaign

• THL,[34]

THL narcolepsy study, results, and publication

• [35]

Searching for the guilty

• [36],[37],[38]

EMA statement on suspected connection between Pandemrix and narcolepsy

• [39]

Reoccurence of swine flu in Finland and elsewhere

• [40],[41],[42]

Background information about other Decision analysis and risk management study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Keywords

Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.     

Related files

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