Decision analysis and risk management

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Decision analysis and risk management is a university course for Master's Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

Scope

What is such a good course content that

it gives a good overview of modern assessment methods,
is not overlapping with other courses in the MSc program,
utilises modern web workspaces for learning,

Definition

Background information from other available Risk assessment study programs are provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

Tasks based on the discussions with Jukka Juutilainen, 15.8.2010.

TODO: {{#todo:Update the short course description and give that to Susanna who puts it into Oodi. DL 1.9.2010.|Jouni Tuomisto|}}

TODO: {{#todo:List related courses in ToxEn and find out the course contents. Some material is in Moodle, learn to use that. Try and adjust the contents of this course to match the other courses without hampering the idea of open assessment. The course Ympäristöterveys is openly available under Avoin yliopisto (nowadays Aducate?). DL: 1.11.2010|Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio|}}

Other relevant courses than may have supporting, similar, or overlapping content.

Environmental Health for International Students, 5 op
Toxicological and Environmental Risk Assessment and Risk Communication, 3 op
Advanced Toxicological Risk Assessment, 9 op Note! Group meetings 24.02.11 to 10.00-12.00, 17.03.11 to 13.00-15.00
Decision analysis and risk management, 6 op This course!
Ecotoxicology and Risk Assessment, 4 op
Environmental health risk assessment, 4 op

TODO: {{#todo:Develop the course contents and ask for lecturers. DL: 15.11.2010.|Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio|}}

TODO: {{#todo:Develop the lecture contents for those lectures that you give yourself. DL: 1.2.2011.|Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio|}}

Result

Name: Decision analysis and risk management
ECTS-credits: 6
Abbreviation: DARM

Content

**Schedule and contents of the course.**
Changes are likely especially in the content, but the dates presented here are more or less fixed.
Date	Hours	Lecturer	Draft content (subject to change); more detailed info coming soon
28.2. PM	3	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	Practical intro of course. Objectives, expectations, practicalities Intro to case.
3.3. AM, PM	6	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	Risk management (theory). Case material collection and synthesis 1-2). Groups present summaries.
4.3. AM, PM	6	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	Opasnet training. Intro to project work. case 3-4. Group work: make a research plan to find out good policies in this case. Which models to use, what to assess?
8.3. AM	3		Decision analysis, basics
9.3. AM or PM	3		probabilities, utilities. Case as a decision problem. Group work: identify decisions, questions.
10.3. AM or PM	3	Marko?	Monte Carlo modeling
11.3. AM	3	Marko?	calculation exercise. Connections to use of knowledge
16.3. AM	3		Bayesian updating CASE 5-7
17.3. PM	3		calculation exercise of Bayes
18.3. PM	3		Overall view of different models. Group work: return first draft of research plan.
21.3. AM	3		Decision making under uncertainty. Assessment performance. Acceptability
22.3. AM or PM	3	Marko?	Value of information
25.3. AM or PM	3	Marko?	VOI calculation exercise. Case 8-9.
29.3. AM or PM	3		Trialogue. Practical work
30.3. AM or PM	3		Inference rules. Scientific method as open discussion.
31.3. AM or PM	3		Discussion about the current research plans.
1.4. AM or PM	3		Case 10-11. How methods learned should be applied now? Why openness is needed? Return second draft of research plan.
7.4. PM	3		Case 12-13
8.4. AM or PM	3		Apply the model to assess the case based on your own research plan. Defend your plan in plenary.
11.4. AM	3		What should the model do? How should the results be used? The core of a model can go through technical check: does it work? The assessment should link to the outside world: does it produce useful info, is it convincing to users?
12.4. AM	3		Presentations, summary and feedback
Teaching (lectures, discussions, calculation exercises)	69
Self-organised group work and individual work	100
Total hours	169

For slightly more detailed descriptions, see D↷

Learning outcomes: The student will learn about the fundaments of decision analysis; and the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment. He is able to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment. He also knows how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.
Content

Theory of decision analysis.
Value of information.
Bayesian rule and Bayesian networks.
Scientific method, falsification.
Pragma-dialectic argumentation theory.
Risk assessment as a collaborative project of information production.
Opasnet and other web tools for risk assessment.
Developing risk management options.
Science-policy interface.

Learning material: Online course readings in Opasnet: http://en.opasnet.org
Degree Programme(s): ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment

Implementation

Time: Spring 2011

Teaching / Learning Methods

Lectures 36 h
Tutorial 0 h
One-to-One Teaching 0 h
Group Work 30 h
Independent Study 96 h
Web-Based Learning 30 %

Additional Information on Teaching / Learning Methods: Group work is in computer class.
Teaching Languages: English
Additional Information on Languages
Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): YES

ASSESSMENT

Assessment is Based on

Written Examination
Project

Additional Information: The project will be a practical participation in a risk assessment in Opasnet.

Assessment: 0 (Fail) – 5 (Excellent)

Additional Information

Prerequisites

ContactsS

Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare)
Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen
Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio
Contact Persons: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi
Registration for the Course: Wossikka

Further information

Keywords: Risk assessment, decision analysis, Bayesian theory, open assessment, risk management, societal decision making.
Further Information

**Courses and course material on different topics related to risk assessment, decision analysis, and risk management.**
Statistics list of links to some methods of descriptive statistics list of links to many methods inferential statistics fairly thorough description of sensitivity analysis thorough mathematical description of uncertainty propagation and covariance matrices; nothing about Monte Carlo how to integrate with Monte Carlo; not necessary in risk assessment a short description of training in subjective probabilities Frequency probability Bayesian probability Principle of maximum entropy Exposure only a stub EPA Exposure factors program interesting for both teaching and opasnet Base some basic concepts of exposure assessment short description of basic concepts and examples of biomarkers in exposure assessment a short description of exposure modelling with indoor and outdoor air as examples official ISEA/IPCS exposure glossary -> put to opasnet glossary total exposure assessment by Paul Lioy (1990) EPA exposure factors handbook: chapter on uncertainty and variability Toxicology general terms and concepts of toxicology a stub with useful links about toxicology measures of toxic pollutant concentrations: short description about NOEC and ECx mathematics of probit model; advanced material the carcinogenic potency database: learn more about this!	Epidemiology and public health good description of basic concepts of epidemiology a description but mostly about history and other trivia (trivia from RA point of view) Risk characterisation a good description of risk aversion with math required Risk management something about security risk management; not useful Risk and impact assessment overview of RA in different fields a long description of relevant concepts of risk management ISO/IEC guide 73:2009 about risk assessment vocabulary a good description of basic concepts of risk only a list of software; the software themselves may be interesting but haven't checked only a placeholder of hazard identification a brief description of HIA but lots of links a short description of a new standard ISO 31000 short description of PRA with software links EPA risk assessment website: learn more about it! Object oriented quality management: interesting idea of Statistics Netherlands; implementation unclear	Decision analysis and economy description of concept of cost overrun (economy) strategic misinterpretation (underestimation) of budget; an interesting detail related to economy Strategic misrepresentation in budgeting Decision theory in Wikipedia Decision theory in Opasnet Prospect theory in Wikipedia Open assessment a general lecture about the utility of open assessment presentation file related to the lecture background information about open assessments background about variables background about mass collaboration evaluating assessment performance Miscellaneous very brief description of EU-OSHA Institute of Risk Management - gives RA education? this is about education assessment and learning philosophy. not very relevant MIT Open CourseWare

References

Related files