Food and agriculture related climate and health impacts

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This page is a knowledge crystal of subtype assessment. The page identifier is Op_en3940
Moderator:Miranda Loh (see all)

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Based on the assessment done in Friel S et al. 2009. Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: food and agriculture. Health and Climate Series 4, The Lancet. [1]

Scope

Purpose

Describe strategies that would allow the food and agricultural sector to meet the targets recommended by the UK Committee on Climate change and quantify these strategies' main effects on health.

Boundaries

Spatial:

UK
Sao Paulo, Brazil

Temporal:

Baseline = 2010
Future projection = 2030

Population: Adult

Policy strategies:

Improve efficiency of livestock farming
Increase carbon capture through management of land use
Improve manure management
Decrease dependence on fossil fuel inputs

Scenarios

For UK:

Strategy one: technological change
- Includes increased efficiency, new technologies, improved farm management
- Estimated reduction of 5 MtCO2e contribution to achieving 2020 emissions reduction target with 80% attributed to livestock
- Expected reductions of 8 MtCO2e from 2007-2030 (emission from livestock sector to be reduced from 36 to 28 MtCO2e
Strategy two: technological change + reduced livestock production
- This strategy would cover the 6 MtCO2e gap between the 28 MtCO2e from Strategy one and the target 22 MtCO2e which would meet the required reduction of emissions
- Includes 10% growth in demand for livestock products due to population increase
- Reduction of livestock production and consumption of foods from animal sources by 30% by 2030

Intended users

   * Intended users are those for whom the assessment is made.

Participants

   * Participants are those who may participate in the making of the assessment. 
     The minimum group of people for a successful assessment is always described. 
     If some groups must be excluded, this must be explicitly motivated.

Definition

Decision variables

UK technological change to reduce emissions in agriculture
UK technological change and reduced livestock production
Reduction in dietary intake of saturated fat and cholesterol from animal sources

Indicators

Health outcomes from:
- Dietary intake of saturated fate (DALYs, YLL, premature deaths)
- Serum cholesterol concentrations (YLL, premature deaths)

Agricuture sector greenhouse gas emissions

Value variables

   * Value variables: value judgements (usually about indicators).

Other variables

Animal source saturated fat intake
Dietary chlesterol intake
Serum cholesterol concentrations
Livestock production
Hazard ratio for dietary intake of saturated fat and disability from ischaemic heart disease > 35 years age
Hazard ratio for dietary intake of saturated fat and death from ischaemic heart disease > 35 years age
Hazard ratio for serum cholesterol concentration and death from ischaemic heart disease
Stroke burden of diesease

Analyses

Comparative risk assessment

Indices

Age and gender UK
Age and gender Sao Paulo

Result

Results

Conclusions

   * Conclusions are based on the results, given the scope.

References