Climate change policy assessment

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The meta-level research question: What is a good scope for this assessment such that

  • it relates to the impacts of climate change mitigation policies,
  • it may relate to the impacts of climate change as such,
  • the assessment covers a wide range of existing assessments within Intarese, Heimtsa, Hiwate, USTUTT, and KTL,
  • the assessment has direct policy relevance for a high-profile policy process, e.g. COP-15 (Dec 2009) or Conference of Environment and Health Ministers of Europe (early 2010?),
  • the parts of the assessment have shared parts, such as population data, future trends of climate, and/or international policies such as emission trade systems,
  • the assessment shows clear synergism in working collaboratively between its parts?

Scope

Purpose

A tentative research questions:D↷

  • What are the impacts of climate change in Europe?
  • What are the impacts of climate change mitigation in Europe?

Boundaries

  • Population in Europe
  • Time 2008-2050
  • Climate patterns in the future based on IPCC results and predictions.

Scenarios

Intended users

Participants

Definition

Variables

Learn about these other assessments and make suggestions about how that assessment could be merged into this larger assessment. Tasks are tentatively distributed to people, but you can suggest and comment on any study.

Variables that may be useful in this assessment:

Ideas about common issues

WP3.1 Transport

  • Topic is to study environmentally friendly zones (limiting car driving) or congestion charge zones within cities.
  • Case cities are Rome, London, the Hague, Helsinki, Barcelona
    • Rome, London, the Hague: Environmentally friendly zones (driving restrictions based on emissions of the car)
    • Helsinki Congestion charges
    • Barcelona: ?
  • Impacts: PM2.5 and health; greenhouse gas emissions, traffic noise and health and annoyance.
  • Shared variables (possibly)
    • PM2.5 emission
    • PM2.5 exposure
    • PM2.5 ERF
    • CO2 emission
  • Shared frameworks:
    • City-level assessment


WP3.4 Drinking water

  • Topic is to study health impacts of As (cancer) and trihalomethanes (THM; cancer, birth defects) in drinking water.
  • Case countries: Spain, Finland, Hungary, Romania, United Kingdom.
  • Impacts assessed:
    • CC impacts on runoff and contamination of raw water
    • CC impacts on availability of raw water
    • Shift from bottled water to tap water as a means to reduce the ecological footprint and CC change of drinking water.
  • Shared frameworks:
    • City-level assessment (or rather: waterworks-level assessment)


WP3.7 UV

  • Rome, Helsinki, London population for years 2001, 2030, 2050
    • Population size and structure
  • Linkages between ozone depletion/recovery and global warming (see report draft Fig.1)
  • Data:
    • Life tables for each age group (YLL) for Italy, UK, Finland 2000
    • DALY
    • O3, aerosols, temperature (cooling/warming)
    • IPCC scenarios
    • Incidence and mortality rates
  • Impacts:
    • Premature mortality, Costs

Second pass thoughts (from report draft):

  • More EU cities/EU-wide assessment
  • More policy scenarios for O3/UV
  • Elaborate links with CC and health



Bioher

  • Energy production (single house and small energy plant level)
  • Population (2000-10000 inh.)
  • Exposure for PM2.5
  • ER-functions for PM2.5
  • PM2.5 emissions (->health effects)
  • PM2.5 climate effect (-> health effects)
  • Household heating scenarios:
    • Heavy/ light oil, wood chips, pellets
  • Atmospheric thermal impact
  • DALY
  • Impacts:
    • Premature mortality
    • Costs




WP3.3 Agriculture

  • Great Britain (epidemiological approach) and Greece (toxicological approach)
  • Impact of agricultural land use practices (changes due to agricultural policies and other related drivers) on public health.
  • Health effects due to pesticides, emission factors for aerosols have been calculated as well.
  • Data:
    • Pesticide usage data
    • Data on cultivated areas and pastures for base year 2000
    • Population data from the 2001 census.
    • A PRELUDE scenario of land use change (termed Great Escape) developed at EE was used, applied for year 2035
  • For the case study in Greece, two regional scenarios for year 2035 were employed; i.e. scenario A (reference or “business as usual”), where both the typology and the proportion of main crops were the same as in base case (year 2000), and scenario B where the typology of main crops was unchanged but their proportion was different as a result of policies and other conceivable influences (such as CAP policies, market forces, climatic change).
  • For the case study in Gr. Britain, the assessment involved comparison of base year (2000) results with those from the enhanced PRELUDE, year 2035, scenario. As the number of AIs used in GB was too great to undertake a detailed analysis, the LAU2 level modelled pesticide amount was divided by the baseline crop area to derive a LAU2-specific application rate which was assumed to remain constant over the assessment period.
  • The health outcomes explored in this GB assessment focused on cancers in adults
  • Climate change not mentioned for the second pass assessment



WP3.5 - Chemicals

  • Health impact assessments of policy measures for 3 chemicals in consumer products (di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP), formaldehyde and

toluene).

  • Human aggregate exposure via several consumer products has been assessed for the situations before and after implementation of the policy measure
  • Climate change not mentioned for the second pass assessment, some remote links to climate change:
    • Formaldehyde case-study: Formaldehyde emissions have been measured while burning mosquito coils -->Climate change may alter the mosquito prevalence and change the use of mosquito repellents
    • Toluene case-study: For general population air pollution from motor vehicle exhaust is unquestionably a major source of exposure to toluene.



HiWATE

  • Topic is to study risk-benefit assessment of microbial and disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water
  • Case cities: Barcelona, Kaunas, Rennes, Bradford, Heraklion, Modena population and local waterworks
  • Data:
    • City level population size and structure
    • DBP and microbial levels in drinking water
    • Exposure: water consumption
    • Epidemiological data for congenital anomalies and still birth, prematurity and small for gestational age, semen quality, bladder cancer, colon cancer
  • Linkages between water contamination and global warming
  • Impacts that could be assessed:
    • Climate change impacts on runoff and contamination of raw water (raw water quality)
    • Climate change impacts on availability of raw water (raw water source)
    • Shift from bottled water to tap water as a means to reduce the ecological footprint and CC change of drinking water (and changes exposure patterns between microbes and DBPs).
  • Shared frameworks:
    • City-level assessment (or rather: waterworks-level assessment)


Common methods that are probably needed


Pages that are not probably needed:

Analyses

Result

Results

Conclusions

See also

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