ERF for heat exposure and mortality

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Revision as of 21:31, 10 August 2010 by Jouni (talk | contribs) (Maud's ERF values added)
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Scope

Exposure-response relationship for short-term ambient heat exposure and mortality.

Dimensions and boundaries relevant for the variable

  • Cause of death
  • Country/other geographic area (differences in heat exposure/effects due to climate, physiological, cultural or behavioral factors)
  • Age of exposed population

Definition

Data

PHEWE-project [1]

Meta-analytical percent changes in mortality by age-group with 1oC increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold temperature in European cities


Mediterranean cities North-continental cities
Cause of death Age (years) % change 95% Cl % change 95% Cl
All natural causes All 3.12 0.60, 5.73 1.84 0.06, 3.64
15-64 0.92 -1.29, 3.13 1.31 -0.94, 3.72
65-74 2.13 -0.42, 4.74 1.65 -0.51, 3.89
75+ 4.22 1.33, 7.20 2.07 0.24, 3.89
Cardiovascular All 3.70 0.36, 7.04 2.44 -0.09, 5.32
15-64 0.57 -2.47, 3.83 1.04 -2.20, 4.92
65-74 1.92 -1.49, 5.35 1.50 -1.12, 4.62
75+ 4.66 1.13, 8.18 2.55 -0.24, 5.51
Respiratory All 6.71 2.43, 11.26 6.10 2.46, 11.08
15-64 1.54 -3.68, 7.22 3.02 -1.55, 7.42
65-74 3.37 -1.46, 8.22 3.90 -0.16, 8.92
75+ 8.10 3.24, 13.37 6.62 3.04, 11.42
  • Meta-analytical estimates are based studies in the following cities:
    • Mediterranean cities: Athens, Rome, Barcelona, Valencia, Turin, Milan, Lubljana
    • North-continental cities: Prague, Budapest, Zurich, Paris, Helsinki, Stockholm, London, Dublin
  • Based on climate and mortality data for the period 1990-2000
  • Exposure assessment: daily maximum apparent outdoor air temperature (nearest airport weather station of each city)

Maud's interpretation of PHEWE[2].

ERF of heat on mortality.
Region Cause of death Age % change per 1 degree above threshold
Nothern continental TOTAL 15-64 1.31
Nothern continental TOTAL 65-74 1.65
Nothern continental TOTAL 75+ 2.07
Nothern continental CVD 15-64 1.04
Nothern continental CVD 65-74 1.50
Nothern continental CVD 75+ 2.55
Nothern continental RESP 15-64 3.02
Nothern continental RESP 65-74 3.90
Nothern continental RESP 75+ 6.62
Mediterranean TOTAL 15-64 0.92
Mediterranean TOTAL 65-74 2.13
Mediterranean TOTAL 75+ 4.22
Mediterranean CVD 15-64 0.57
Mediterranean CVD 65-74 1.92
Mediterranean CVD 75+ 4.66
Mediterranean RESP 15-64 1.54
Mediterranean RESP 65-74 3.37
Mediterranean RESP 75+ 8.10


Temperature threshold:

  • standard threshold (29.4 °C)
  • high threshold (32.4 °C)
  • low threshold (25.7 °C)

Dependencies

Unit

1/°C (log(RR) per 1 °C increase in the ambient temperature above the threshold)

Formula

coefficient = ln(ERF of heat on mortality/100 + 1) incremental exposure = heat exposure - heat exposure baseline

Result

See also

References

  1. ↑ Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G, Kosatsky T, Katsouyanni K, Analitis A, Ross Anderson H, Bisanti L, D'Ippoliti D, Danova J, Forsberg B, Medina S, Paldy A, Rabczenko D, Schindler C & Michelozzi P. 2008. Heat Effects on Mortality in 15 European Cities. Epidemiology, 15: 711-719.
  2. ↑ Baccini et al 2008 Epidemiology, vol 19, number 5, pp. 711-719
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