User:Margaret Arogunyo

DECISION ANALYSIS AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Home Work 1

←--#: . Very good. --Jouni (talk) 08:27, 10 April 2017 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)

1a:

• Open assessment is a method that attempts to answer research question regarding how scientific information and value judgements are organised for improving societal decision-making in a situation where open participation is allowed and how these scientific information are applied in practical assessments.This assessment processes are performed using Internet tools such as; Opasnet and other internet tools. Participation in the assessment can be done by Stakeholders and other interested people and this include; commenting, and editting the content as it develops, from an early phase of the process.

• Shared understanding means a situation where all participants can understand what decision options are considered, what outcomes are of interest, what objectives are pursued, what facts, opinions, and disagreements exist and why, and finally why a particular decision option was selected. Shared understanding is written down and shared with everyone.

• Open assessment is the overall method for knowledge support in a situation where open participation is allowed. Specifically, it deals with the issue of systematically combining scientific information and value judgements for improving societal decision making.

• In dimensions of openness there are five different perspectives to openness in external participation of assessment processes: scope of participation, access to information, timing of openness, scope of contribution, and impact of contribution.

1b: Learning terms in Quizlet

• Shared understanding: A situation where everyone has been heard about the topic at hand and where there is a written description about all facts, values, and reasoning and why there are agreements and disagreements.
• Critique: A principle of open policy practice that all information must be subject to attacking scientific arguments. All statements not consistent with observations or not relevant in their context are invalidated and not used for making conclusions. The aim is to reject ideas, hypotheses - and ultimately decision options - that do not hold against scientific arguments.
• Openness: A principle of open policy practice that all work and all information is constantly available for anyone to read, contribute, and criticize. If there are exceptions, these must be publicly justified. It is not judged a priori who may have important information or value judgments about the topic.
• Intentionality: A principle of open policy practice that the management of work should be based on understanding of the objectives and values of the person for whom the work is done. Therefore, the decision maker explicates her objectives and decision options under consideration. The work studies impacts of the decision related to the objectives of the decision maker.
• Knowledge crystal: A written description about a specific topic produced according to the principles of open policy practice. It has the structure question, answer, and rationale. It has an own page in a web-workspace, e.g. Opasnet.
• Causality: A principle of open policy practice that policy support should be based on understanding of causes and effects related to the impacts of policy options, i.e. whether and why the policy options would lead to desired outcomes.
• Shared information objects:A principle of open policy practice that information work should be performed by producing all information on topic-based web pages with permanent address. All information is organized using a systematic structure and a common workspace where all participants can work. Each topic has its own page with a permanent identifier (URL). Pages are continually updated as new information arises. Assessments, variables, and methods are typical page classes.
• Reuse: All information is produced in a format and with methods that facilitate its use for other purposes by other people. For example, content in a PDF file is not machine readable, and therefore e.g. Opasnet variable pages are favored.
• Co-creation: Joint effort to collaboratively produce information, typically supported by facilitators and performed utilizing online tools.
• Shared information objects: A principle of open policy practice that information work should be performed by producing all information on topic-based web pages with permanent address. All information is organized using a systematic structure and a common workspace where all participants can work. Each topic has its own page with a permanent identifier (URL). Pages are continually updated as new information arises. Assessments, variables, and methods are typical page classes.
• Evaluation and management: Guidance and criteria to observe the performance and potential of the work and its products, and taking corrective actions when necessary.
• Grouping: Producing the participants a feeling that they belong to a group that works on an important topic and that values participants' contributions.
• Respect: Valuation given to participants based on their contributions to produce and share information.

1c: Introduction to critical thinking

According to what i learn in khan academy, critical thinking is all about making good reasons for your beliefs.

1d: Introduction to probabilities

According to Khan academy, probability is the likelihood that something will happen and this can be calculated by looking at the possible outcomes.

Homework 3: Basic concepts of open assessment and co-creation

←--#: . Good. --Jouni (talk) 07:35, 20 April 2017 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)

TASK A

1. I read and study homeworks 1 and 2.
2. I learn and study Glossary Terms in open policy practice.
3. I learn the introductory pages.

Some of the terms in open policy practice are;

Asymptotic test: It is a statistical tests that approach known properties as sample sizes increase.

Benchmark dose (BMD): It is an exposure due to a dose of a substance associated with a specified low incidence of risk, generally in the range of 1% to 10%, of a health effect; or the dose associated with a specified measure or change of a biological effect.

Cubic : It is an effect is a function of a measure raised to the third power.

Questions

I will like to find answer to the following statistical questions as the class continue.

• What is P-value? ----#: . P value is a statistical test about how likely it would be to get results that deviate even more from the null hypothesis than what was observed. For example, if you compare means of some property (say, weight) in two groups with a t test, p value tells the probability that in a new similar study the means would differ even more. P value is based on several assumptions and you should be aware of those to avoid misinterpretations. --Jouni (talk) 07:58, 20 April 2017 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
• What is regression analysis? ----#: . Regression analysis attempts to predict values of a "dependent variable" based on what is known about some "independent variables". For example, the independent variable of interest could be body weight of a laboratory animal (as body weight loss is an indicator of chronic toxicity), and the independent variables could be dose of a toxic chemical and sex of the animal, because they are thought to affect the body weight. As the outcome, you could get estimates about how much weight loss occurs per 1 mg/kg dose of the chemical, and how much sex affects this weight loss. --Jouni (talk) 07:58, 20 April 2017 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
• what is Bernoulli distribution? ----#: . Bernoulli distribution is a probability distribution that describes situations where one event may lead to exactly two possible outcomes, often called TRUE/FALSE, or success/failure. Parameter p describes the probability of success. For example, tossing a coin is a Bernoulli process, and if the coin is fair (i.e., both sides are equally likely, p is 0.5. --Jouni (talk) 07:58, 20 April 2017 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

TASK B

The process in which the consumers participates in the decision on the production of goods and services for general consumption of the public is co-creation. The consumers interest, ideas and options is put in use and developed for the production of a satisfying goods and services. The first step in co-creation is the interaction of the firm with the consumers in a dialogue, access, transparency, and understanding of risk benefits that is central to value creations of goods. Unlike co-creation, traditional decision support processes, is carried out in such a way that consumers were in a sense “outside the firm.” Value creation occurred inside the firm (through its activities) and outside markets. in traditional decision support processes, the market is viewed as an aggregation of consumers and it was separated from the value creation process with no role in value creation, simply put, its role was value exchange and extraction.

An effective facilitator helps a group complete its primary task by trying to capitalize on the benefits derived from group work and also helping to overcome its dysfunctional dynamics such as free-riding, production blocking, evaluation apprehension, information overload, and cognitive inertia. To achieve an effective work, a facilitator encourages full participation, promotes mutual understanding, fosters inclusive solutions, and cultivates shared responsibility.

A good facilitator must have the following good skills:

Skills of Good Facilitator

SKILLS	EXPLANATION
Openness	A good facilitator should make the information of the work constantly available for anyone to read, contribute, and criticise. If there are exceptions, these must be publicly justified.
Co-creation	A good facilitator should make joint effort to collaboratively produce information with other workers.
A good sense of grouping	A good facilitator should make his co-workers or participants feel that they belong to a group that works on an important topic and that values participants' contributions. Simply put, he or she must make his participant feel a sense of belonging and that their contributions is valued.
Respect	A good facilitator should appreciate and give valuation to participants based on their contributions to produce and share information.
Active listener	A good facilitator must be a good listener. He must be good at balancing discussion and participation to discussion. Gathering lists of contributions and summarizing them and also paraphrasing and mirroring contribution.
Chart-writing	A good facilitator must have a clear writing manner. He must be good at flip-chart, Printing in straight, thick-lined, plain block and capital letters for clearer understanding by his co-worker.

Homework 4: Draft of an assessment plan

←--#: . Good. You can improve your answer based on my comments. The current evaluation of this homework is 1.0 / 2 points. --Jouni (talk) 06:15, 11 May 2017 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: defence)

Scope

Question

How can the Bavarian Climate Programme 2020 achieve reduction of greenhouse-gases emission by year 2020 and how can this policy affect the rest of the world in mitigating pollution?

Intended use and users

The “Bavarian Climate Programme 2020” will proactively complement and boost the efforts being undertaken on international and national level on energy and climate programme of the German Federal Government and implementation of laws on national climate protection programme with a view to counteracting climate change and its consequences even more effectively.

Participants

The participants include; Bavarian Ministry of Environment, Public Health and Consumer Protection (StMUGV). Other Ministries involved are the Bavarian Ministry of Economic Affairs, Infrastructure, Transport and Technology (StMWIVT), the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior (StMI), the Bavarian Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (StMLF), the Bavarian Ministry of Sciences, Research and the Arts (StMWFK) and the Bavarian Ministry of Finance (StMF). Scientists at universities and research institutions in Bavaria will also be able to participate in the programmes and also the Bavarian Council of Ministers.

Boundaries

This assessment is majorly designed for the city of Bavarian, though Bavaria’s share of global greenhouse-gas emissions is low, it wants to live up to its standard and as a role model. To achieve this project, it needs the collaboration of the rest of the world. The only way to limit climate change as a global challenge is by non-EU industrial states also practicing sustainable climate protection and developing countries also making a reasonable contribution to climate protection.

----#: . Here you could comment more about what issues and aspects are taken into the assessment and what are left outside. For example: mitigation or adaptation actions or both? Are all sectors covered (industry, traffic, commerce...)? --Jouni (talk) 06:15, 11 May 2017 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)

Decisions and scenarios

the collaboration or extension of this assessment to developing countries might pose lot of changellenges

⇤--#: . This is about the actions or policies that are evaluated in the assessment. Typically, this describes a group of possible actions, and the assessment conclusions are about recommending some of them. --Jouni (talk) 06:15, 11 May 2017 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: attack)

Timing

The Bavarian Council of Ministers decided to update the Bavarian Climate Protection Programme launched in 2000 and amended in 2003 into a “Bavarian Climate Programme 2020”, with this in mind, the assessment as been launched since year 2000 and the assessment is gradually comming to an end.

Answer

----#: . Although you cannot know the answers of an assessments when you are just planning the assessment, you may describe here what kinds of answers you expect to achieve during the assessment work. --Jouni (talk) 06:15, 11 May 2017 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)