Sensitivity analysis pcv model
To assess the sensitivity of the IPD predictions produced by the epidemiological model (assuming complete replacement) effects of 24 alternative scenarios regarding the role of certain serotypes in PCV10 and PCV13 were calculated, separately for <5 and 5+ year olds.
The results, shown in the table below, can be summarized as follows:
For <5 year olds:
- Inclusion of direct effects for 19A in PCV10 decreses the advantage of PCV13 from the default level of approximately 30 cases by 15.
- Exclusion of 3 from PCV13 decreses the PCV13 advantage by approximately 2 cases. Inclusion of 6A in PCV10 decreses the PCV13 advantage by 4 cases.
For 5+ year olds:
- Exclusion of serotype 3 from PCV13 will decrease its advantage by 130 cases, practically eliminating the advantage.
- Inclusion of 6A in pcv10 will inrease the PCV13-advantage by 30 (as 6A is not a good vaccine type for adults) and assuming that 6C carriage proportion (of 6AC) is 50% (instead of the default level of 33%) will increase it by 10.
Columns of the table: _ 3inP13 = inclusion of serotype 3 in PCV13 6Cprop = assumed proportion of 6C carriers among the 6A/C carriers 6AinP10 = inclusion of serotype 6A in PCV10 19AinP10 = inclusion of serotype 19A in PCV10 _ <5_P10 IPD among <5 yo:s after PCV10 (IPD=99 when no vaccination) <5_P13 IPD among <5 yo:s after PCV13 <5_Diff Additional decrease in IPD due to PCV13 _ 5+_P10 IPD among 5+ yo:s after PCV10 (IPD=687 when no vaccination) 5+_P13 IPD among 5+ yo:s after PCV13 5+_Diff Additional decrease in IPD due to PCV13
Levels of protection considered:
0 = no protection
dir = direct efficacy against disease (*), no indirect effects
(*) 80% coverage, 10% waning per year, 80% efficacy against
disease for newly vaccinated
full = 100% overall effectiveness
3inP13 6Cprop 6AinP10 19AinP10 <5_P10 <5_P13 <5_Diff 5+_P10 5+_P13 5+_Diff ------ ------ ------- -------- -------- ---------- 0 33% 0 0 41 71 30 133 115 -18 0 33% 0 dir 55 70 15 133 114 -19 0 33% full 0 42 71 29 92 114 22 0 33% full dir 59 71 12 92 114 22 0 50% 0 0 41 72 31 133 137 4 0 50% 0 dir 55 72 17 133 137 4 0 50% full 0 45 72 27 114 137 23 0 50% full dir 61 72 11 115 137 22 _ dir 33% 0 0 41 73 32 133 115 -18 dir 33% 0 dir 55 73 18 133 115 -18 dir 33% full 0 42 73 31 92 115 23 dir 50% 0 0 41 74 33 133 138 5 dir 50% 0 dir 55 74 19 133 137 4 dir 50% full 0 45 75 30 114 137 23 dir 50% full dir 61 74 13 115 138 23 dir 33% full dir 59 73 14 92 114 22 _ full 33% 0 0 41 74 33 133 249 116 full 33% 0 dir 55 74 19 133 249 116 full 33% full 0 42 74 32 92 249 157 full 33% full dir 59 74 15 92 249 157 full 50% 0 0 41 75 34 133 267 134 full 50% 0 dir 55 75 20 133 267 134 full 50% full 0 45 75 30 114 267 153 full 50% full dir 61 75 14 115 267 152