Decision analysis and risk management

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Decision analysis and risk management is a university course [1] for Master's Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

Scope

What is such a good course content about decision analysis and risk management that

it gives a good overview of modern assessment methods,
is not overlapping with other courses in the MSc program,
utilises modern web workspaces for learning,

Result

Name: Decision analysis and risk management
ECTS-credits: 6
Abbreviation: DARM

Content

**Schedule and contents of the course.**
Each row is a three-hour block of lectures, exercises, discussions, or organised group work, in total 69 hours of teaching. In addition, self-organised group work and individual learning is expected to take ca. 100 hours.
Changes are likely especially in the content, but the dates presented here are more or less fixed. Abbreviations: RA = risk assessment, DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RC = risk communication.
Date	Time	Lecturer	Theory lectures and exercises	Material	Case study discussions and exercises
28.2.	10-13	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	Practical introduction to course. (Jouni) Objectives, aims, expectations. Content and teaching/study methods. Example from risk assessment & management study?		Introduction to the case study and exercises (Mikko) swine flu vaccination campaign in Finland 2009-2011: effects and side effects? group work: decision analysis study plan individual work: reflections on risk management options and actions
3.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	Introduction to risk management. What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? Traditional paradigm. Look from decision-maker's point of view: needs, communication, and assessment all included. Openness: RA, RM, RC are not totally separate. Performance: Context about what we actually aim to achieve. How do we know if we succeeded? Developing risk management options. Development of risk assessment questions. Science-policy interface. Why it does not exist. Boundaries of RA and RM
3.3.	13-16	Mikko, Jouni, Marko			Beginning of the swine flu story: How the swine flu problem emerged (spring 2009) and spread in the world. Swine flu story (summer 2009): Preparedness in Finland and internationally. Vaccination campaigns, counter-campaigns. Should we launch a vaccination campaign? Should I take vaccination? Should I not take vaccination?
4.3.	9-12	Mikko, Jouni, Marko	Introduction to using Opasnet reading and browsing modes of contribution user accounts / logging in basic editing commenting and discussing content Task: Build the page for the group work.
4.3.	13-16	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	Decision analysis: introduction Purpose of assessment: Why it is done Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees Measures of outcome: Utility, DALY, QALY, WTP Probability theory Subjective probability Practical exercise Bayesian rule and Bayesian networks Importance of exhaustiveness (coverage)	*Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics	Exercise part one begins: make a decision analysis study plan to find out good policies in this case. Which models to use, what to assess?
8.3.	9-12	Jouni	Decision analysis (continued).		Swine flu case as a decision problem: what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?
9.3.	9-12	Jouni	Decision analysis (continued).
10.3.	9-12	Marko	Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation What is modeling or model? Why would you like to use Monte Carlo? Background of the MC method Monte Carlo, simulation and Monte Carlo simulation Practical implementation of MC Programs Defining the probability functions Reading the results Monte Carlo vs. Bayes and Bootstrapping		Swine flu story (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
11.3.	8-11	Marko	Calculation exercise. Case: Mortality due to PM in Kuopio: Exposure-response function Exposure concentration Background mortality
16.3.	9-12	Jouni	Bayesian updating Probability theory.odp
17.3.	9-12	Jouni	Calculation exercise of Bayes
18.3.	13-16	Jouni	Overall view of different models: Producing result from rationale. Overall view of models.odp Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates. Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations. Other relations (neural networks).		First drafts of DA study plans. Brief presentations by students of and discussions about DA study plan drafts.
21.3.	9-12	Jouni, Marko, Mikko	Decision making under uncertainty Evaluating an assessment.odp Uncertainty and it's impact (1h Jouni) Sensitivity analysis (1h Marko) Value of information (1h Marko) Acceptability Analysis of model inputs, outputs, and structure		Swine flu story: Use of adjuvants. How similar is the same? Can/Should be aim at zero risk? Benefit-risk comparisons.
22.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	Decision-making under uncertainty (continued). Value of information, Value of information analysis. Assessment performance? Quality of evidence? Impacts of uncertainty in decision-making. Hindsight. (Mikko)
25.3.	9-12	Marko	VOI calculation exercise. Case 1: Weather example: Two cities, daily temperature data for 1 year Question: what is the VOI to know the daily temperature vs. average temperature Calculations done in excel Case 2: Risk model: calculation of VOI by hand calculation of expected value of perfect X information using Jouni's VOI function
29.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko			Full drafts of DA study plans. Presentations by students of and discussions about study plans. Apply the model to assess the case based on your own research plan. Defend your plan in plenary. Are plans executable? What outputs are expected? Do they serve the intended needs? What should the model do? How should the results be used? The core of a model can go through technical check: does it work? The assessment should link to the outside world: does it produce useful info, is it convincing to users?
30.3.	9-12	Mikko, Jouni	Risk management (theory). What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? Traditional paradigm. Look from decision-maker's point of view: needs, communication, and assessment all included. What is the role of decision analysis and modeling in RM? Openness: RA, RM, RC are not totally separate. Performance: Context about what we actually aim to achieve. How do we know if we succeeded? Developing risk management options. Development of risk assessment questions. Science-policy interface. Why it does not exist. Opasnet and other web-based decision support systems.		Exercise part two begins: Risk management actions and options.
31.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	Trialogue, collective learning Shared understanding.odp Justified true belief and its problems Inference rules: how do we know what we know? Shared information vs. private information Actions by a group based on shared information Shared belief systems Risk assessment as a collaborative project of information production.		Swine flu story: Secret connections to drug industry? Narcolepsy.
1.4.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	Inference rules. Scientific method as open discussion. Falsification. Do we need pre-peer-review?
7.4.	13-16	Mikko	Discussion: Lectures of concepts Pragma-dialectics, argumentation theory. Parts of Argumentation. Structuring of discussions in practice and theory Ready-made texts: discussions and organisation Homework: evaluate relevance - validity of arguments. Discuss in groups the next day. Build a structured discussion out of this in groups. Possibly utilise group writing tools?		Swine flu story (autumn 2010): Vaccination campaign halted. THL remains silent about possible risks. Narcolepsy analysis. Impacts of openness. How methods learned should be applied now? Why openness is needed?
8.4.	9-12	Mikko			Swine flu story (January 2011): Publishing of narcolepsy results and apologies. Searching for the guilty.
11.4.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko			Final seminar: Presentations (exercise parts one and two), discussions, and summary of perspectives to the case.
12.4.	8-11	Jouni, Mikko	Wrap-up and course feedback.		Final seminar (cont'd).

For the case study description, see D↷.

Learning outcomes: The student will learn about the fundaments of decision analysis; and the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment. He is able to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment. He also knows how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.

Learning material: Online course readings in Opasnet: http://en.opasnet.org
Degree Programme(s): ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment

Implementation

Time: Spring 2011

Teaching / Learning Methods

Lectures 36 h
Tutorial 0 h
One-to-One Teaching 0 h
Group Work 30 h
Independent Study 96 h
Web-Based Learning 30 %

Additional Information on Teaching / Learning Methods: Self-organised group work requires on-line computers.
Teaching Languages: English
Additional Information on Languages
Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): YES

ASSESSMENT

Assessment is Based on

Participation in lectures and discussions.
Case study decision analysis plan in groups.
Case study risk management plan individually.

Additional Information: The case studies will be evaluated based on contributions in Opasnet.

Assessment: 0 (Fail) – 5 (Excellent)

Additional Information

Prerequisites

Contacts

Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare)
Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen
Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio
Contact Persons: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi
Registration for the Course: Wossikka

Further information

Keywords: Risk assessment, decision analysis, Bayesian theory, open assessment, risk management, societal decision making.
Further Information

Rationale

Background information from other available Risk assessment study programs are provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

Other relevant courses than may have supporting, similar, or overlapping content.

Environmental Health for International Students, 5 op
Toxicological and Environmental Risk Assessment and Risk Communication, 3 op
Advanced Toxicological Risk Assessment, 9 op Note! Group meetings 24.02.11 to 10.00-12.00, 17.03.11 to 13.00-15.00
Decision analysis and risk management, 6 op This course!
Ecotoxicology and Risk Assessment, 4 op
Environmental health risk assessment, 4 op
The course Ympäristöterveys is openly available under Aducate.

See also discussions about the course content. D↷

**Courses and course material on different topics related to risk assessment, decision analysis, and risk management.**
Statistics list of links to some methods of descriptive statistics list of links to many methods inferential statistics fairly thorough description of sensitivity analysis thorough mathematical description of uncertainty propagation and covariance matrices; nothing about Monte Carlo how to integrate with Monte Carlo; not necessary in risk assessment a short description of training in subjective probabilities Frequency probability Bayesian probability Principle of maximum entropy Exposure only a stub EPA Exposure factors program interesting for both teaching and opasnet Base some basic concepts of exposure assessment short description of basic concepts and examples of biomarkers in exposure assessment a short description of exposure modelling with indoor and outdoor air as examples official ISEA/IPCS exposure glossary -> put to opasnet glossary total exposure assessment by Paul Lioy (1990) EPA exposure factors handbook: chapter on uncertainty and variability Toxicology general terms and concepts of toxicology a stub with useful links about toxicology measures of toxic pollutant concentrations: short description about NOEC and ECx mathematics of probit model; advanced material the carcinogenic potency database: learn more about this!	Epidemiology and public health good description of basic concepts of epidemiology a description but mostly about history and other trivia (trivia from RA point of view) Risk characterisation a good description of risk aversion with math required Risk management something about security risk management; not useful Risk and impact assessment overview of RA in different fields a long description of relevant concepts of risk management ISO/IEC guide 73:2009 about risk assessment vocabulary a good description of basic concepts of risk only a list of software; the software themselves may be interesting but haven't checked only a placeholder of hazard identification a brief description of HIA but lots of links a short description of a new standard ISO 31000 short description of PRA with software links EPA risk assessment website: learn more about it! Object oriented quality management: interesting idea of Statistics Netherlands; implementation unclear	Decision analysis and economy description of concept of cost overrun (economy) strategic misinterpretation (underestimation) of budget; an interesting detail related to economy Strategic misrepresentation in budgeting Decision theory in Wikipedia Decision theory in Opasnet Prospect theory in Wikipedia Open assessment a general lecture about the utility of open assessment presentation file related to the lecture background information about open assessments background about variables background about mass collaboration evaluating assessment performance Miscellaneous very brief description of EU-OSHA Institute of Risk Management - gives RA education? this is about education assessment and learning philosophy. not very relevant MIT Open CourseWare

Related further education courses (in Finnish, organised in Kuopio)

Täydennyskoulutuskursseja DARM-kurssin aiheista järjestetään osana ERACedu-riskinarviointikoulutusta. Koulutus järjestetään yksipäiväisinä koulutuksina Kuopiossa. Koulutuksessa voi osallistua yhteen tai useampaan päivään; muiden osien käyminen ei ole välttämätöntä, mutta samassa kuussa järjestettävät koulutukset ovat aihepiiriltään lähellä toisiaan.

Päätösanalyysia ja riskinhallintaa tapausesimerkin kautta ("Mini-DARM") (5.5.2011)
- Sikainfluenssatapauksen pohjalta toteutettu johdanto päätösanalyysiin ja riskinhallinnan perusteisiin.
Päätöksenteko epävarmuuden oloissa (19.5.2011)
- Päätösanalyysi ja -mallitus
Keskustelu ja kansalaiskuuleminen päätöksenteossa: menetelmiä ja työkaluja (8.9.2011)
- Kuinka järjestetään tehokkaasti kansalaiskuulemisia ja avointa osallistumista päätöksentekoon tai vaikutusarviointeihin?
Yhteisöllinen oppiminen (29.9.2011)
- Osallistava arviointi ja mallitus.

References