Talk:Decision analysis and risk management

From Opasnet
Revision as of 09:23, 9 February 2011 by Mikko Pohjola (talk | contribs) (→‎Lectures related to uncertainty: an attempt to distribute and clarify arrangement responsibilties)
Jump to navigation Jump to search

Draft synopsis

For a draft synopsis of the course, see a previous version.

Case study exercise (draft)

Imagine that the Ministry of Social and Health affairs of Finland has given you an assignment to assess the case of AH1N1 (aka swine flu) vaccinations and the sudden increase in narcolepsy among young people in Finland. Consider yourself as an expert in protecting and promoting public health. The minister expects your assessment to shed light on e.g following aspects of the issue:

  • Did something go wrong? If so, what, when, and why?
  • How could have things been done better? What, when, and why?
  • With the knowledge we have now in this situation, what could/should be done?
  • What can be learned about this case regarding possible similar urgent public health risk management situations in the future?
  • Are there any more general risk management or other lessons to learn from this case?

The case study exercise is done in two parts; the first pertaining more to decision analysis (DA), the second more to risk management (RM). The first part is group work, while the second is individual work (can also be agreed otherwise if needed).

For non-ToxEn students participating in the course it could be considered that the lectures and exercises, the DA study plan, and the Discussion and conclusions regarding RM options are worth 2 study credits each (or should it be 3, 2, and 1 respectively?). For ToxEn students all the parts of the course are obligatory.

Part one: Decision analysis study plan

group work (~3-5 people/group)

Based on the lecture and exercise contents, the materials and discussions regarding the swine flu/narcolepsy case on the course, as well as all your own expertise and opinions, work out a plan how a DA study could/should be made. The plan should address at least the following:

  1. Background description
    • purpose of the study
    • main question(s) related to the case
    • relevant actors related to the case
    • roles of different actors related to the case
    • timeline of major events
    • expected outputs and impacts of the study
  2. Decision analysis study plan
    • decisions considered
    • outcomes of interest that the decisions (are intended to) have influence on
    • the factors (variables) that link decisions to their (intended) outcomes
    • different sources of information
    • all the above at certain different timepoints along the progress of the case
      • which timepoints?
      • what knowledge emerged between different timepoints?
      • how does the model change from a timepoint to another?
    • analyses over the model and its parts

The DA study plans are intended to be worked on gradually alongside the lectures and exercises, and progress will be presented to and discussed with other students as well as lecturers in classroom a few times during the course. In the end of exercice part 1, the group will present the final plan to other students as well as lecturers in classroom. If possible, the final DA study plans will be, at least partly, executed by means of the demonstrator model that will be developed for demonstration purposes on the course. At least the possible results that could be achievable according to the plan will be discussed at the presentation of the plan. Results (actual or anticipated) are added to the plan.

(part 1 can be considered as corresponding roughly to the introduction and methods sections of a scientific article, or to the scope and definition attributes of an assessment object in open assessment)

Part two: Discussion and conclusions regarding risk management options and actions

Planned as individual work, but can also be combined as a part of the group work if so desired

Following the work done in exercise part 1, and taking account of the discussions regarding the plans by different groups in, consider what does (may) a decision analysis study tell, what can the results be used for, and how? Think that you are explaining the DA study results to the social and health minister.

  1. What does the analysis tell?
    • were the right decisions made?
    • what decisions should have been made?
    • could things have gone in a different way?
    • what implications other courses of events would have had? What would it have required?
    • is possible that such could have happened in reality?
  2. What can be concluded?
    • if anything, what went wrong? why?
    • if a somewhat similar situation occurred, what should be done?
    • if possible, what should be done in preparation?

(part 2 can be considered as corresponding roughly to the discussion and conclusions sections of a scientific article, and also to the conclusions sub-attribute of an assessment in open assessment).

Basis for evaluating the case study exercises

The main point is not to write long and detailed texts of any specific topic within this course. Instead the idea is to try to make use of what has been taught on the course by combining them in relation to a practical question. Most important issues in evaluating the exercises are:

  • general clarity of thought
  • comprehension and description of the big picture
  • meaningful connections between the aspects of the case
  • application of the knowledge and methods provided in lectures, exercises and discussions along the course
  • ability to argue for or against different statements or actions

Practical case study guidance

The DA study plans will be written in Heande, a password protected project-wiki, similar to Opasnet (this site). The writing can take place directly within Heande, or the text can be copied to Heande from external documents. However, the evaluation of the group's work will be done based only on the material on the group's Heande-page. The Heande-pages will be opened for each group, creation of user accounts, and the basics of wiki-editing will be taught in practical classroom exercises in the beginning of the course. In case of problems with Heande or just need of advice, feel free to contact the lecturers.

Also the individual discussions and conclusions regarding risk management options actions will be written and evaluated similarly in Heande.

The course participants are encouraged to actively discuss own and others work. In addition to oral classroom discussions the discussion can take place in Heande. Also the principles, tools, and practices of discussing in a wiki-system will be presented and instructed in practical classroom exercises during the course. Activity in discussing the exercise topics in Heande will be considered as a benefit in evaluating the group and individual works. Discussions may address the group's or individual's own works as well as other groups and individual works.

Suunnittelussa huomioonotettavaa

  • aikataulurajoitteet
  • tila-, väline- yms. vaatmukset
  • tilavaraukset
  • videointi, koneet, verkko?
  • DA-mallin kehikko
  • infomateriaali omatoimiseen työhön
    • case
    • käsitteistö ja teoria
  • perusasialuennot ? työnjako, suunnitelmat, tausta- ja esitysmateriaalit
  • harjoitustehtävät ? peruskäsitteistö yms. / DA-case / kyselyt kurssin kuluessa

Lectures related to uncertainty

I was briefly discussing with Jouni from the uncertainty, Monte-Carlo and Value of Information path of the lectures.

I think this “path” has three main pieces:

  • What is uncertainty, how to identify uncertainty etc. This could include all kind of issues like expert elicitation, data analysis, literature search, expert estimates, modelers estimate etc.
  • How to implement uncertainty to the calculations? Thus, how to actually combine uncertainties from different sources and/or how to create uncertainty functions. This could be divided to two different parts, Bayes and Monte-Carlo, since these two are the two most common ways of implementing uncertainty to the assessment.
  • Third phase consist sensitivity analysis and value of information. Thus, these are methods that are applied after the model is done and after the uncertainties have been implemented.

I think the basic idea of this is already included in the course structure, but we could try to make it clearer in the lecturing structure?


Responsibilities among organizers

The course basically consists of three temporal/contentual sections:

  1. Introduction 28.2.-4.3.
  2. DA 8.3.- 29.3.
  3. RM 30.3.-12.4.

The two main teaching/studying methods are employed in parallel more or less throughout the course:

  • Theory lectures and exercises (classroom)
  • Case discussions and group/independent work (classroom and outside)

In order to allow us to concentrate on certain things below is suggestion for distribution of (primary) responsibility on certain issues along the course

Intro

Jouni and Mikko to agree on who leads which parts, and prepare corresponding teaching materials. Basically exercise introduction and instruction prepared by Mikko, general course arrangement basically a responsibility of Jouni. Marko to participate and help as available/needed.

DA

Marko and Jouni to agree on who leads which parts, and prepare corresponding teaching materials. Also developing the model for demonstrations a responsibility of Jouni and Marko (Can the study plans also be executed with the demonstrator model (updated according to needs of the plans)?). Jouni to create and keep up the linkage between case study/exercise and theory. Mikko will be back to participate in the exercise part 1 presentations and discussions. Also Mikko is available if assessment performance is wanted to be taken up in DM under uncertainty.

RM

Mikko to plan the story-/timelines for both theory and case for the last section. More detailed distribution of lead responsibilities to be agreed upon by Jouni and Mikko. Follow-up and assistance for post-seminar improvement work on exercises needs to arranged. Also exercise output checks and student evaluations need to be agreed upon.

Other

In addition there are certain general issues that also need to be agreed upon and taken care of, e.g:

  • collection and preparation of study and background materials for both theory and case to be done by whom?
  • classroom reservations to be done by whom? (us or UEF?)
    • needs for specific equipment or space needs must be clearly indicated in teh course schedule
  • video recording / streaming of lectures? (which lectures are suitable?)
  • is there a need for an increased continuous Opasnet up-keeping or help desk -service during the course?
  • requirements/needs for keeping up participation lists? how is this to be done?
Retrieved from "https://en.opasnet.org/index.php?title=Talk:Decision_analysis_and_risk_management&oldid=18303"